Yuta Shimizu #357Japan22 – 0Trevor Svajda #470United States0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60

The read

Shimizu's superior recent form and extensive hard-court experience give him a clear edge over Svajda, who has struggled against higher-ranked opponents recently.

• Shimizu has won 8 of his last 10 matches, including a 7-6 7-6 win over Dan Martin in the previous round of this tournament.
• Shimizu's career hard-court win percentage is 61.9% with 236 wins, significantly more experience than Svajda's 49 hard-court wins.
• Svajda has lost 4 of his last 6 matches, with his only wins coming against lower-ranked opponents (No. 430 and No. 888).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches have been competitive, and their tiebreak tendencies suggest a close contest with a high game count.

• Shimizu's last 5 matches have averaged 24.8 games per match, with 4 of 5 going over 21.5 games.
• Svajda's last 5 matches have averaged 21.6 games, but his matches against similar-level opponents have been tighter.
• Both players have high tiebreak rates (Shimizu 56%, Svajda 57%), increasing the likelihood of extended sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

The first set is likely to be tight given both players' solid serving and recent history of extended opening sets.

• Shimizu's last 5 first sets have averaged 10.4 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Svajda's last 5 first sets have averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have strong serve hold percentages (Shimizu 68% first-serve win, Svajda 67.6%), making breaks less frequent.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

With both players capable of holding serve under pressure, the second set is expected to be closely contested and exceed 9.5 games.

• Shimizu's last 5 second sets have averaged 10.2 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Svajda's last 5 second sets have averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have similar break-point save rates (Shimizu 59.1%, Svajda 61.6%), indicating resilience on serve.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30

The read

Shimizu's strong start tendency and Svajda's recent pattern of losing first sets suggest Shimizu is likely to take the opener.

• Shimizu has won the first set in 7 of his last 10 matches, including his last two matches.
• Svajda has lost the first set in 4 of his last 6 matches, often falling behind early against stronger opponents.
• Shimizu's first-set win conversion rate is 86%, indicating he often capitalizes on early leads.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Given both players' tendency to play tiebreaks and their similar serve-hold abilities, at least one tiebreak is highly probable.

• Shimizu has played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 10 matches, including his most recent match.
• Svajda has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 6 matches, with a 57% career tiebreak win rate.
• Both players have high tiebreak frequencies (Shimizu 56% career, Svajda 57%), and their serving stats suggest close sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined ace rates of both players suggest a total above 8.5 is likely, though the low confidence reflects the variability in ace counts at this level.

• Shimizu averages 3.9 aces per match, while Svajda averages 4.2, combining for 8.1 aces per match on average.
• In their last 5 matches, Shimizu has hit 19 aces (3.8 per match) and Svajda has hit 21 (4.2 per match), totaling 40 aces over 10 matches.
• Hard courts typically yield higher ace counts, and both players have above-average ace rates for their level.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined double-fault averages slightly favor over 5.5, but the low confidence reflects the potential for cleaner serving in a high-stakes match.

• Shimizu averages 3.2 double faults per match, while Svajda averages 3.0, combining for 6.2 per match on average.
• In their last 5 matches, Shimizu has committed 16 double faults (3.2 per match) and Svajda has committed 15 (3.0 per match).
• Both players have moderate double-fault rates, and the pressure of a close match could increase errors.