Yuta Shimizu vs Justin Boulais: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Shimizu's superior return game and break point conversion give him a slight edge in a matchup of similar serve profiles on hard courts.
- Shimizu has a 61.8% career win rate vs Boulais' 52.2%
- Shimizu's return points won (42%) edges Boulais' (40%)
- Shimizu's break point convert rate (45%) is higher than Boulais' (39.9%)
- Shimizu's recent form: 8-7 in last 15, including wins over higher-ranked opponents
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostYuta ShimizuEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward longer contests with frequent tiebreaks, making over 21.5 games likely in a best-of-3 format.
- Shimizu's last 5 matches averaged 23.4 total games
- Boulais' last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games
- Both players have high tiebreak rates: Shimizu 56% career, Boulais 52%
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given the competitive nature of the matchup and Boulais' ability to keep matches close, he is likely to stay within 3.5 games even in a loss.
- Shimizu's average margin of victory in recent wins is 3.2 games
- Boulais has covered +3.5 in 4 of his last 5 losses
- Head-to-head is 0-0, but both players are closely matched on hard courts
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonJustin Boulais +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Recent first sets for both players have been tight, often reaching 10+ games, supporting over 9.5 in set 1.
- Shimizu's last 5 first sets averaged 10.2 games
- Boulais' last 5 first sets averaged 10.0 games
- Both players have tiebreak win rates above 50%
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in their recent matches have been competitive, with a slight lean toward over 9.5 games.
- Shimizu's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games
- Boulais' last 5 second sets averaged 9.6 games
- Both players have similar second-set game averages in recent matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of both players' recent matches and their similar deciding set records suggest a three-setter is more likely than not.
- Shimizu has gone to 3 sets in 4 of his last 10 matches
- Boulais has gone to 3 sets in 5 of his last 10 matches
- Both players have deciding set win rates near 50%
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shimizu's higher first-set win conversion and recent trend of starting strong suggest a slight advantage in the opening set.
- Shimizu's first set win conversion rate is 87% vs Boulais' 80%
- Shimizu has won the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches
- Boulais lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostYuta ShimizuEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players frequently engage in tiebreaks, with over half of their recent matches featuring at least one, making a tiebreak in this match highly probable.
- Shimizu has played a tiebreak in 6 of his last 10 matches
- Boulais has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 10 matches
- Shimizu's career tiebreak win rate is 56%, Boulais' is 52%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players capable of serving aces and a probable three-set match, total aces are likely to surpass 8.5.
- Boulais' ace rate is 4.5% vs Shimizu's 3.9%
- Boulais averages ~4 aces per match, Shimizu ~3.5
- Combined ace potential in a likely three-set match exceeds 8.5
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Boulais' higher double fault rate and the expectation of a longer match increase the likelihood of over 6.5 double faults.
- Boulais' double fault rate is 4.9% vs Shimizu's 3.2%
- Boulais averages ~3 double faults per match, Shimizu ~2
- A three-set match would likely push combined double faults over 6.5
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Yuta Shimizu #371Japan0Justin Boulais #422Canada2

Player Profiles

Yuta Shimizu

Justin Boulais

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Yuta Shimizu

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Yuta Shimizu

Justin Boulais