Alejandro Tabilo #30vsRafael Jodar #11Spain

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Jodar has the better recent hard-court results and has controlled this matchup, including a straight-set win three days earlier.

• Ranked 11 vs 30; 10-5 in last 15 and 9-5 on hard.
• Won three of four career meetings, including 6-4 6-2 on 27 Oct 2026.
• Hard-court games won: Jodar 53.2%, Tabilo 49.3%; return points won 39.5% vs 34.5%.
• Set evidence: Jodar 9-4 on hard best-of-3; Tabilo 4-7.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40

The read

Both players' recent hard-court matches often run past 23.5 games, especially when Jodar is extended to a third set.

• Tabilo's hard best-of-3 matches average 23.7 total games; Jodar's average 25.8.
• Jodar has played three sets in eight of 13 hard best-of-3 matches.
• The last head-to-head was only 18 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.40

The read

Jodar's recent hard-court margins and his six-game win over Tabilo make a three-game cushion plausible.

• Jodar's hard-court recent game margins: +2, +6, +2, +5, +3, +5.
• He covers -2.5 in four of those six matches.
• Against Tabilo on 27 Oct 2026 he won by six games (12-6).
• His hard-court games won is 53.2% overall.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets have slightly more game volume and tiebreak risk, making over 9.5 more likely than not.

• Tabilo's second sets average 10.3 total games; Jodar's average 9.8.
• Tabilo has three second-set tiebreaks in 11 hard best-of-3 matches; Jodar has three in 13.
• Jodar's second sets average 5.7 games won and 4.2 lost.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Jodar has been notably stronger in second sets on hard courts, and he closed the recent meeting 6-2 in the second.

• Jodar is 9-4 in second sets on hard best-of-3; Tabilo is 5-6.
• Jodar won the second set 6-2 in the most recent meeting.
• Jodar's hard-court games won is 53.2% vs Tabilo's 49.3%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Jodar's stronger recent hard-court set record and recent head-to-head edge make him the likely first-set winner.

• Jodar is 7-6 in first sets on hard best-of-3; Tabilo is 5-6.
• Jodar won the first set 6-4 in the most recent meeting.
• Jodar has a 64.9% break-point save rate on hard.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60

The read

Jodar's recent hard-court matches frequently reach a third set, and Tabilo's serve can extend rallies enough to force one.

• Jodar's hard best-of-3 average is 2.62 sets; Tabilo's is 2.36.
• Jodar has eight three-set matches in 13; Tabilo has four in 11.
• Three of the last four Jodar matches in the sample went to a deciding set.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Most of the recent head-to-head sets have been decided by breaks rather than tiebreaks.

• Tabilo has no tiebreak in 7 of 11 hard best-of-3 matches; Jodar in 8 of 13.
• Three of the last four head-to-head meetings had no tiebreak.
• Most recent meeting was 6-4 6-2 without a tiebreak.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With a combined average barely above the line, under 11.5 is slightly more likely if the match is short.

• Tabilo averages 6.7 aces per match; Jodar 5.0.
• Combined average is 11.7, leaving little margin above 11.5.
• Recent head-to-head was 18 games and could limit ace volume.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players averaging close to two double faults, under 4.5 is slightly favored if the match stays short.

• Tabilo averages 2.4 double faults per match; Jodar 2.2.
• Combined average is 4.6, just above 4.5.
• Jodar has a 64.7% first-serve in rate on hard.