ItalyWTA CourmayeurUpcomingFeatured

Noma Akugue Noha #126GermanyAlina Charaeva #100Armenia

Sun 1 Nov 2026, 14:001 Nov, 14:00FinalI.hard

9Probabilities4Priced5Edges67%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageAlina Charaeva · 26 places

Noma Akugue Noha

Germany

Twenty-two-year-old left-hander from Reinbek, Germany. Her Roland-Garros profile lists a best singles ranking of No. 137; the supplied current ranking is No. 142.

Current ranking: #126
Peak ranking: #137
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Left handed
Height: 170 cm

Alina Charaeva

Armenia

The WTA lists Charaeva at a career-high No. 112 in July 2026. The ITF identifies hard courts as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #100
Peak ranking: #112 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Read first

Context last updated 31 Oct 2026, 22:17 · Europe/Bucharest

A Courmayeur final between Noma Akugue Noha's fast starts and Alina Charaeva's longer matches.

Noma looks the likelier winner, with her 10-3 first-set record across 13 hard-court matches since mid-September the strongest part of the case. At 2.6 to win, 2.3 for the first set, 2.3 with a 1.5-game start, 4.25 for a 2-0 win and 1.85 for over 21.5 games, there is a case for those five prices.

Context

The final itself supplies stakes, and the contrast between Noma's compact 13-match hard-court record and Charaeva's 15-match three-set pattern gives the match a clear shape. No confirmed injury or head-to-head meeting adds further weight.

Noma's recent hard-court record is built on compact matches, with only one of the 13 going to a third set.
That pattern gives Noma a route to a short final if her first-set level holds. It also means Charaeva's longer matches are the main counterweight, since a single dropped set would change the shape of the contest.
- From 14 September to 31 October 2026, Noma Akugue Noha played 13 completed hard-court matches; 12 ended in straight sets (nine 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses) and one in a 1-2 loss.
- Her hard-court matches averaged 18.6 total games and 2.08 sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result1 outcome · top 54%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Noma has the better hard-court game and set-one record, and she has been winning quickly in Courmayeur.
- Hard-court record: 9-4 in 13 matches; 55.8% games won.
- Set 1 record on hard: 10-3; break points saved 67.3%.
- Last four wins all in straight sets, including over Blinkova (rank 73).
- Charaeva is ranked 100 and has won 10 of 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerNoma Akugue NohaMarket price2.60Estimated chance54%

Games2 outcomes · top 60%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Noma's recent wins have generally been by several games, and the +1.5 start covers even a one-game loss.
- Noma's last four wins came by game margins of +5, +7, +5 and +6.
- She is 9-4 on hard and has won 55.8% of games.
- Charaeva's two recent losses were by margins of -5 and -9.
BetBugs · Game HandicapNoma Akugue Noha +1.5Market price2.30Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Charaeva's longer matches and the near-even match make a total above 21.5 games more likely than not.
- Charaeva's hard-court matches average 24.5 total games; Noma's average 18.6.
- Charaeva's three-set wins add long matches, including 16-9 in games against Jacquemot.
- The setBetting view gives 49% to a three-set match.
BetBugs · Total GamesOver 21.5Market price1.85Estimated chance57%

Sets3 outcomes · top 61%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Noma has started matches much more strongly than Charaeva on hard courts.
- Noma's hard-court set 1 record is 10-3.
- Charaeva's hard-court set 1 record is 6-9.
- Noma won the first set in five of her last six completed matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerNoma Akugue NohaMarket price2.30Estimated chance61%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Charaeva has been the stronger second-set player in this sample and often improves after a slow start.
- Charaeva's hard-court set 2 record is 11-4.
- She has three set-2 tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches.
- Her set 2 average is 5.6 games won to 4.33 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerAlina CharaevaEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Noma's matches have usually finished in two sets, and she has been closing out wins quickly this week.
- Noma's hard-court matches average 2.08 sets.
- Nine of Noma's 13 hard-court matches ended 2-0 or 0-2.
- Noma's last four wins were all in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance51%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 67%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have mostly avoided tiebreaks on hard courts in this sample.
- Only 2 of Noma's 13 hard-court matches had a tiebreak.
- Only 3 of Charaeva's 15 hard-court matches had a tiebreak.
- Charaeva had no set-1 tiebreaks in 15 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchNoEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace average is just above the line, so over is slightly more likely.
- Noma averages 3.5 aces per hard-court match.
- Charaeva averages 4.5 aces per hard-court match.
- Their combined average is 8.0 aces.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average is marginally above the line.
- Noma averages 4.1 double faults per hard-court match.
- Charaeva averages 4.5 double faults per hard-court match.
- Their combined average is 8.6 double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 8.5Estimated chance51%

Prediction history

Noma Akugue Noha: 3/4 recent winner projections matched

3 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Noma Akugue Noha matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Noma Akugue Noha4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

13 Jul·WTA Rome

#253Alice Rame0-2#149Noma Akugue Noha

BetBugsNoma Akugue Noha to win·65%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

WTA Rome

#253Alice Rame0-2#149Noma Akugue Noha

Noma Akugue Noha to win

65%probability

Noma Akugue Noha won

Matched

24 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#245Katherine Sebov2-1#152Noma Akugue Noha

BetBugsNoma Akugue Noha to win·62%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#245Katherine Sebov2-1#152Noma Akugue Noha

Noma Akugue Noha to win

62%probability

Katherine Sebov won

Missed

8 Jun·WTA Modena

#162Noma Akugue Noha2-0#153Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah

BetBugsNoma Akugue Noha to win·62%

Matched

8 Jun 2026

WTA Modena

#162Noma Akugue Noha2-0#153Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah

Noma Akugue Noha to win

62%probability

Noma Akugue Noha won

Matched

4 Jun·WTA Makarska

#252Kajsa Rinaldo Persson0-2#162Noma Akugue Noha

BetBugsNoma Akugue Noha to win·62%

Matched

4 Jun 2026

WTA Makarska

#252Kajsa Rinaldo Persson0-2#162Noma Akugue Noha

Noma Akugue Noha to win

62%probability

Noma Akugue Noha won

Matched

Previous match context available

Noma Akugue Noha

9W 6L

6-4 6-3#73Anna Blinkova 6-4 6-1#159Ayla Aksu

6-4 6-3#254Linda Klimovicova

7-6(4) 6-1#858Danka Kovinic

6-1 7-6(9)#621Jodie Anna Burrage

6-4 6-3#197Julia Avdeeva

6-4 6-3#158Rebeka Masarova

6-2 6-3#118Lucrezia Stefanini

6-3 6-2#289Elena Micic

7-5 6-3#289Elena Micic

6-1 6-4#736Ilay Yoruk

6-3 6-1#205Fiona Crawley

4-6 6-3 6-0#282Malaika Rapolu

6-3 6-0#273Ayana Akli

6-1 6-2#99Fiona Ferro

Alina Charaeva

10W 5L

6-2 4-6 6-1#135Elsa Jacquemot

6-4 6-4#125Marina Bassols Ribera

1-6 6-2 6-3#159Gabriela Andrea Knutson

6-4 6-1#535Enola Chiesa

4-6 6-3 6-2#172Anna Siskova

6-1 6-2#147Martyna Kubka

6-1 2-6 6-4#22Qinwen Zheng

6-4 6-1#52Sonay Kartal

3-6 6-4 6-3#1Elena Rybakina

5-7 7-5 6-2#54Yuliia Starodubtseva

6-4 6-7(6) 7-6(5)#76Anna Bondar

3-6 7-6(4) 6-4#187Sofia Kenin

6-4 7-5#73Anna Blinkova

6-2 6-3#145Elina Avanesyan

3-6 7-6(5) 6-3#212Xiaodi You

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

NNNoma Akugue NohaNoha

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Alina CharaevaCharaevaAC

Alina Charaeva carries the stronger recent form — Noma Akugue Noha's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In56.9%+3.6pp60.5%

1st Serve Won63.5%+3.4pp66.9%

2nd Serve Won50.4%+4.2pp46.2%

Aces / Match3.3+1.24.5

Double Faults / Match4.00.5 fewer4.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won43.7%+1.1pp44.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.6%+4.3pp46.9%

Break Pts Saved62.8%+11.1pp51.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.2%—51.5%

Serve · 2–3

56.9%1st Serve In+3.6pp60.5%

63.5%1st Serve Won+3.4pp66.9%

50.4%2nd Serve Won+4.2pp46.2%

3.3Aces / Match+1.24.5

4.0Double Faults / Match0.5 fewer4.5

Return · 0–1

43.7%Return Pts Won+1.1pp44.8%

Pressure · 1–1

42.6%Break Pts Converted+4.3pp46.9%

62.8%Break Pts Saved+11.1pp51.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.2%Total Pts Won—51.5%

Noma Akugue Noha

Alina Charaeva

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Noma Akugue Noha

Noma Akugue Noha +1.5

Over 21.5

Noma Akugue Noha

Noma Akugue Noha 2-0

Result1 outcome · top 54%

Games2 outcomes · top 60%

Sets3 outcomes · top 61%

Match stats3 outcomes · top 67%

Noma Akugue Noha

Alina Charaeva

Stat Battle