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Predictions graded

Ayla Aksu #159Türkiye0Noma Akugue Noha #127Germany2

Sets 4-6 · 1-6Fri 30 Oct 2026, 13:05 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalI.hard

Predictions7–278%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageNoma Akugue Noha · 32 places

Ayla Aksu

Türkiye

Turkish right-hander, born 15 July 1996. Her WTA ranking rose from No. 305 in February 2026 to No. 202 in early August; no current injury or absence signal was returned in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #159
Peak ranking: #198 · 2026
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Noma Akugue Noha

Germany

Twenty-two-year-old left-hander from Reinbek, Germany. Her Roland-Garros profile lists a best singles ranking of No. 137; the supplied current ranking is No. 142.

Current ranking: #127
Peak ranking: #137
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Left handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Oct 2026, 22:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Noha is ranked 32 places higher, serves the bigger ball and tends to win in straight sets, while Aksu's return game and longer matches keep this quarter-final from feeling settled.

Noha looks the likelier winner, but at 1.5 she is priced for more than her record shows. Aksu at 2.6 is the one quoted price with an edge, about 3.5 points, and it is a marginal call rather than a confident pick.

Context

Noha's advantage is concentrated early: she has won 8 of 11 first sets in the same hard-court window.
Noha's set scores show short, closed-out matches: seven 2-0 wins, three 0-2 defeats and one 1-2 loss in 11 matches, averaging 2.09 sets and 18.7 games. That points to a quick quarter-final if her serve holds, though Aksu has taken seven of her 15 hard matches to a third set. The sample is 11 matches, not a season-long rate.
- Hard-court set record over 11 matches (14 Sep-28 Oct 2026): seven 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses, one 1-2 loss.
- Average 2.09 sets and 18.7 games per match in the same window.
Aksu's first-set record is the weak point of an otherwise winning 15-match sample.
Aksu has won 9 of 15 hard matches while taking only 6 of 15 first sets, and her opening sets average 4.13 games against 5.07 lost. Falling behind has not stopped her winning, with five 2-1 victories in the sample, but it means the first set is more often a deficit than a platform. In a best-of-three quarter-final that pattern offers the opponent an early foothold.
- Set 1 record in 15 hard matches (11 Aug-28 Oct 2026): 6 wins, 9 losses; 4.13 games won against 5.07 lost.
- Match record in the same window: 9-6, including five 2-1 wins and two 1-2 defeats.
Aksu's latest win took three sets, the longer route her season has followed.
Aksu's most recent completed match was a three-set recovery: she lost the first set 2-6, then won 6-4 6-3 against a player ranked 118. It shows she can absorb a poor start and still win, which matters in a best-of-three against a strong server. It is one match, not a trend.
- 28 October 2026: won 2-6 6-4 6-3 against Lucrezia Stefanini (ranked 118) on indoor hard.
One of Noha's four hard-court defeats in her 11-match sample came against an opponent ranked 494 places below her, losing 1-6 6-7. It is a single result and no proof of inconsistency, but it does show her ranking edge over Aksu is not a wide one. She also won straight-set matches in the same period, so the loss reads as a warning rather than a pattern.
- 22 October 2026: lost 1-6 6-7 to Jodie Anna Burrage (ranked 621) on indoor hard.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Noha's serve and early-set strength give her the clearer path to the win.
- Noha is ranked 127 to Aksu's 159 and has won 7 of 11 hard-court matches.
- She wins 62.3% of first-serve points and saves 64.1% of break points overall.
- She has won 8 of 11 first sets on hard.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonNoma Akugue NohaEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Aksu's longer matches balance Noha's quick wins, leaving the total around the line.
- Aksu's hard-court matches average 23.5 games.
- Noha's hard-court matches average 18.7 games.
- Noha has seven straight-set wins, but Aksu's three-setters add length.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The averages sit just under the line and Noha often closes sets quickly.
- Aksu's first sets average 9.2 games.
- Noha's first sets average 9.45 games.
- Noha has won 8 of 11 first sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Noha's shorter second sets give under a small edge.
- Noha's second sets average 8.7 games.
- Aksu's second sets average 10.1 games.
- Noha has won 7 of 11 second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Noha's short recent matches and straight-set wins make under more likely.
- Noha has finished 10 of 11 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Aksu's hard sample includes eight straight-set matches from 15.
- Noha's hard-court matches average 2.09 sets.
- Noha's seven hard-court wins are all 2-0.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Noha's early-set record and serve give her the clearer first-set advantage.
- Noha has won 8 of 11 first sets on hard.
- Noha averages 5.09 first-set games won to 4.36 lost.
- Aksu has lost 9 of 15 first sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonNoma Akugue NohaEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Noha's serve and overall hard-court game give her a slight second-set edge.
- Noha has won 7 of 11 second sets on hard.
- Noha wins 62.3% of first-serve points overall.
- Aksu has won 9 of 15 second sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonNoma Akugue NohaEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The recent hard-court samples point to most sets being decided without a tiebreak.
- Aksu has had 2 tiebreaks in 15 hard matches.
- Noha has had 2 tiebreaks in 11 hard matches.
- Noha saves 64.1% of break points overall.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Noha's serve gives the match a good chance to clear the low ace line.
- Noha averages 2.9 aces per match overall and 3.1 on hard.
- Aksu averages 0.9 aces per match.
- The combined average sits above the 3.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault rate sits just under the line.
- Aksu averages 3.9 double faults per match.
- Noha averages 3.5 double faults per match.
- The combined average is just below the 7.5 line.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Noma Akugue Noha: 3/4 recent winner projections matched

3 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Noma Akugue Noha matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Noma Akugue Noha4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

13 Jul·WTA Rome

#253Alice Rame0-2#149Noma Akugue Noha

BetBugsNoma Akugue Noha to win·65%

Matched

13 Jul 2026

WTA Rome

#253Alice Rame0-2#149Noma Akugue Noha

Noma Akugue Noha to win

65%probability

Noma Akugue Noha won

Matched

24 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#245Katherine Sebov2-1#152Noma Akugue Noha

BetBugsNoma Akugue Noha to win·62%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#245Katherine Sebov2-1#152Noma Akugue Noha

Noma Akugue Noha to win

62%probability

Katherine Sebov won

Missed

8 Jun·WTA Modena

#162Noma Akugue Noha2-0#153Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah

BetBugsNoma Akugue Noha to win·62%

Matched

8 Jun 2026

WTA Modena

#162Noma Akugue Noha2-0#153Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah

Noma Akugue Noha to win

62%probability

Noma Akugue Noha won

Matched

4 Jun·WTA Makarska

#252Kajsa Rinaldo Persson0-2#162Noma Akugue Noha

BetBugsNoma Akugue Noha to win·62%

Matched

4 Jun 2026

WTA Makarska

#252Kajsa Rinaldo Persson0-2#162Noma Akugue Noha

Noma Akugue Noha to win

62%probability

Noma Akugue Noha won

Matched

Previous match context available

Ayla Aksu

9W 6L

2-6 6-4 6-3#118Lucrezia Stefanini

6-4 6-3#276Lisa Zaar

6-4 6-3#616Dalayna Hewitt

7-5 2-6 6-2#118Lucrezia Stefanini

7-5 6-3#114Himeno Sakatsume

3-6 6-3 6-4#205Fiona Crawley

3-6 6-3 6-3#209Alicia Dudeney

6-3 6-2#157Emiliana Arango

6-3 6-3#190Elena Pridankina

6-1 5-7 6-2#162Han Shi

6-1 7-6(3)#278Yuki Naito

4-6 7-5 7-5#286Elena Malygina

6-2 6-3#118Lucrezia Stefanini

6-4 7-5#469Alana Smith

2-6 7-6(4) 6-2#673Allegra Korpanec Davies

Noma Akugue Noha

9W 6L

6-4 6-3#254Linda Klimovicova 7-6(4) 6-1#858Danka Kovinic

6-1 7-6(9)#621Jodie Anna Burrage

6-4 6-3#202Julia Avdeeva

6-4 6-3#158Rebeka Masarova

6-2 6-3#118Lucrezia Stefanini

6-3 6-2#289Elena Micic

7-5 6-3#289Elena Micic

6-1 6-4#750Ilay Yoruk

6-3 6-1#205Fiona Crawley

4-6 6-3 6-0#289Malaika Rapolu

6-3 6-0#273Ayana Akli

6-1 6-2#99Fiona Ferro

7-6(2) 6-3#138Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

6-1 7-6(7)#166Anastasiia Sobolieva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AAAyla AksuAksu

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Noma Akugue NohaNohaNN

Noma Akugue Noha carries the stronger recent form — Ayla Aksu's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In63.5%+4.3pp59.2%

1st Serve Won59.0%+3.3pp62.3%

2nd Serve Won45.5%+4.9pp50.4%

Aces / Match0.9+2.02.9

Double Faults / Match3.90.4 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won46.8%+3.5pp43.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.6%+3.6pp45.0%

Break Pts Saved51.7%+12.4pp64.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won50.5%—51.0%

Serve · 1–4

63.5%1st Serve In+4.3pp59.2%

59.0%1st Serve Won+3.3pp62.3%

45.5%2nd Serve Won+4.9pp50.4%

0.9Aces / Match+2.02.9

3.9Double Faults / Match0.4 fewer3.5

Return · 1–0

46.8%Return Pts Won+3.5pp43.3%

Pressure · 1–1

48.6%Break Pts Converted+3.6pp45.0%

51.7%Break Pts Saved+12.4pp64.1%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

50.5%Total Pts Won—51.0%