Ningbo - ChinaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Petr Bar Biryukov #331Russia2Liam Broady #231United Kingdom1

Sets 6-4 · 1-6 · 6-3Sat 31 Oct 2026, 08:30 Predictions gradedIndoor

Predictions0–10%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLiam Broady · 100 places

Petr Bar Biryukov

Russia

Born 28 February 2002, Bar Biryukov is a left-handed player with a two-handed backhand. Public results data records a career-best singles ranking of No. 267 on 27 October 2025; no reliable stated preferred surface was found.

Current ranking: #331
Peak ranking: #267 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 196 cm

Liam Broady

United Kingdom

Broady is the left-hander in this matchup and is listed with hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #231
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 Oct 2026, 15:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Ningbo semifinal, two left-handers, no previous meeting: Broady's three wins this week against Bar Biryukov's bigger serve and an extra day's rest.

Broady is the narrow favourite, but the 1.44 on him asks for roughly 69% and a 5-10 record over 15 matches does not support it. The 2.6 on Bar Biryukov is the one price worth taking.

Context

The 31 October Ningbo hard-court semifinal follows Bar Biryukov's three-set win over Cui and Broady's straight-set win over Delaney the previous day. Those quarterfinal routes create an immediate workload contrast before this match. The scores do not establish match duration, recovery status, or any availability issue.
- The 31 October Ningbo semifinal follows Bar Biryukov's three-set quarterfinal win over Cui and Broady's straight-set win over Delaney .
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 15:15 · Europe/BucharestTennis Explorer match detailwww.tennisexplorer.com · 30 Oct 2026
Bar Biryukov's serve is the clearest single weapon either player brings into the Ningbo semifinal.
He struck 665 first serves in that 15-match sample and won 493 of them, so the free points are spread across the stretch rather than one hot week. The 60.7% landing rate matters as much as the pace, because the pattern only holds if the first serve keeps finding the box. How Broady's return copes with it is the open question.
- 15 completed matches tracked to 29 October 2026.
- 10.0 aces per match (150 aces over 15 matches).
- 74.1% first-serve points won (493 of 665).
- 60.7% first serves in (665 of 1,096).
Broady's return numbers are the part of his 15-match sample that has travelled with him into this week.
He took 406 of 1,180 return points across those matches and converted 30.9% of break points, 30 from 97. That keeps him live in return games even when other parts of his game are uneven, and it is the direct test of Bar Biryukov's serve. The conversion rate is the softer link: 97 chances for 30 breaks is not a ruthless return.
- 15 completed matches tracked to 30 October 2026.
- 34.4% return points won (406 of 1,180).
- 30.9% break points converted (30 of 97).
- Record of 5 wins and 10 losses in that span.
The 31 October Ningbo semifinal will be their first recorded meeting. There is no previous direct contest between them to add matchup-specific context. This is background context rather than evidence of a playing advantage.
- The 31 October Ningbo semifinal is their first recorded head-to-head meeting.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 15:15 · Europe/BucharestTennis Explorer match detailwww.tennisexplorer.com · 30 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Broady is higher-ranked and has won three matches this week, though his 15-match record is poor.
- Ranked 231; 5-10 in his last 15 completed matches.
- Won three straight matches in Ningbo, including a straight-set quarterfinal.
- Averaged 34.4% return points won over that span.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLiam BroadyEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average is below 8.5, with neither player above 4.3 per match.
- Bar Biryukov averaged 4.3 double faults per match over his last 15.
- Broady averaged 3.7 double faults per match over his last 15.
- Their combined recent average is 8.0 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bar Biryukov's high ace rate plus Broady's recent three-set matches lift the combined total above the 13.5 mark.
- Bar Biryukov averaged 10.0 aces per match over his last 15.
- Broady averaged 3.8 aces per match over his last 15.
- Their combined recent average is 13.8 aces per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 13.5Estimated chance51%

Prediction history

Liam Broady: 5/7 recent winner projections matched

5 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Liam Broady matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Liam Broady7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

14 Jul·Granby - Canada

#113Aleksandar Vukic2-1#198Liam Broady

BetBugsLiam Broady to win·62%

14 Jul 2026

Granby - Canada

#113Aleksandar Vukic2-1#198Liam Broady

Liam Broady to win

62%probability

Aleksandar Vukic won

9 Jul·Newport - USA

#209Liam Broady2-0#263Andre Ilagan

BetBugsLiam Broady to win·62%

9 Jul 2026

Newport - USA

#209Liam Broady2-0#263Andre Ilagan

Liam Broady to win

62%probability

Liam Broady won

1 Jul·Cary - USA

#209Liam Broady1-2#414Jack Kennedy

BetBugsLiam Broady to win·78%

1 Jul 2026

Cary - USA

#209Liam Broady1-2#414Jack Kennedy

Liam Broady to win

78%probability

Jack Kennedy won

30 Jun·Cary - USA

#210Liam Broady2-0#347Hayato Matsuoka

BetBugsLiam Broady to win·72%

30 Jun 2026

Cary - USA

#210Liam Broady2-0#347Hayato Matsuoka

Liam Broady to win

72%probability

Liam Broady won

8 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#219Liam Broady2-1#360Ioannis Xilas

BetBugsLiam Broady to win·78%

8 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#219Liam Broady2-1#360Ioannis Xilas

Liam Broady to win

78%probability

Liam Broady won

Petr Bar Biryukov

8W 7L

5-7 6-3 6-4#292Fajing Sun

6-7(1) 7-6(5) 6-4#432Semen Pankin

6-2 6-3#132Stefanos Sakellaridis

6-1 6-2#386Omar Jasika

6-3 7-6(5)#761Yuta Tomida

6-2 6-4—Maksim Shin

6-4 6-1#112Dane Sweeny

7-5 6-4#433Masamichi Imamura

6-4 6-4#130Alexandre Muller

7-6(4) 7-6(5)#199Andre Ilagan

7-5 6-3#223Marat Sharipov (RUS)

7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(0)#408Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-3 6-4#637Naoya Honda

6-3 6-4#898Jesse Delaney

7-6(6) 6-7(1) 6-2#471Denis Yevseyev

Liam Broady

5W 10L

6-1 7-6(3)#356Jake Delaney

6-1 6-7(3) 6-4#637Naoya Honda

5-7 7-6(4) 6-2#291Sergey Fomin

6-4 6-4#294Akira Santillan

6-7(5) 6-4 6-2#603Dominik Palan

6-4 6-4#181Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-4 3-6 6-1#253Dominic Stricker

7-6(4) 6-3#163Marco Cecchinato

6-3 7-5#421Dhakshineswar Suresh

6-4 7-5#407Ozan Baris

7-5 5-7 6-4#266Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 7-5#404Yuta Shimizu

6-4 5-7 7-6(4)#116Aleksandar Vukic

6-3 7-6(6)#34Alex Michelsen

6-3 7-6(2)#199Andre Ilagan

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PBPetr Bar BiryukovBiryukov

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Liam BroadyBroadyLB

Petr Bar Biryukov carries the stronger recent form — Liam Broady's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In60.7%+0.8pp59.9%

1st Serve Won74.1%+1.7pp72.4%

2nd Serve Won52.7%+2.7pp50.0%

Aces / Match10.0+6.23.8

Double Faults / Match4.30.6 fewer3.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won30.1%+4.3pp34.4%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted29.7%+1.2pp30.9%

Break Pts Saved64.2%—64.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won48.7%—49.1%

Serve · 4–1

60.7%1st Serve In+0.8pp59.9%

74.1%1st Serve Won+1.7pp72.4%

52.7%2nd Serve Won+2.7pp50.0%

10.0Aces / Match+6.23.8

4.3Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer3.7

Return · 0–1

30.1%Return Pts Won+4.3pp34.4%

Pressure · 0–1 · 1 even

29.7%Break Pts Converted+1.2pp30.9%

64.2%Break Pts Saved—64.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

48.7%Total Pts Won—49.1%