Newport - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Liam Broady #209United Kingdom2Andre Ilagan #263United States0

Sets 6-3 · 7-6Thu 9 Jul 2026, 18:13 Predictions gradedSecond RoundGrass

Predictions3–443%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLiam Broady · 54 places

Liam Broady

United Kingdom

ATP bio lists hard as his favourite surface. ATP states he reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 116 in February 2022. The structured player reference for this match lists him at No. 209.

Current ranking: #209
Peak ranking: #116
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Andre Ilagan

United States

ATP currently shows no public bio information for Ilagan. The structured player reference for this match lists him at No. 263. Use current-tournament workload as the main public context.

Current ranking: #263
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Jul 2026, 08:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Liam Broady’s grass-court experience, 2-0 H2H record, and fresh legs give him a clear advantage over qualifier Andre Ilagan, who has battled through three three-set matches this week.

Expect a competitive match with value on over 22.5 total games and Ilagan +3.5 game handicap, as Broady should win but may be pushed.

Context

Ilagan beat Rybakov 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 in qualifying and Noguchi 7-5, 3-6, 6-3 in the main draw, both three-setters.
- Broady beat Vukic 7-6, 6-3 in straight sets and did not play qualifying.
- Ilagan has spent over 5 hours on court this week compared to Broady's 1 hour 40 minutes.
Broady won 6-4, 6-1 in April 2026 and 6-3, 1-6, 7-6(5) in February 2025.
- In the April match, Broady won 68% of first-serve points and saved 75% of break points.
- Ilagan has never taken a set off Broady in straight sets.
Broady defeated Vukic (ranked 104) 7-6, 6-3, winning 68% of first-serve points.
- Ilagan's three grass wins this week were against players ranked 213, 432, and an unranked opponent.
- Broady has a career grass win rate of 42.5% compared to Ilagan's 100% from only three matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Liam Broady

1.45fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Broady's H2H dominance, superior grass experience, and fresher legs after a straight-set opener give him a clear edge.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Liam Broady

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Broady's strong H2H first-set record and high career first-set win conversion suggest he is likely to take the opener.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Broady's H2H dominance, superior grass experience, and fresher legs after a straight-set opener give him a clear edge.
- Broady leads H2H 2-0, both on hard courts, with a 6-4 6-1 win in April 2026 and a 6-3 1-6 7-6(5) win in February 2025.
- Broady's career grass win rate is 34-46 (42.5%), while Ilagan is 3-0 on grass in 2026 but only 3-0 career (small sample).
- Broady's recent form includes a straight-set win over #104 Vukic on grass, while Ilagan needed three sets in all three Newport matches this week.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLiam BroadyEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ilagan's grinding style and recent three-set battles push the total games higher, even if Broady wins in straight sets.
- Both H2H matches had 17 and 23 games, averaging 20 games, but Ilagan's recent matches have been longer: 30, 28, and 19 games in Newport.
- Ilagan's last 5 matches averaged 24.6 games, with 4 of 5 going over 22.5.
- Broady's last 5 matches averaged 21.2 games, but 3 of 5 went over 22.5.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ilagan's competitiveness and Broady's occasional lapses suggest Ilagan will cover the +3.5 game handicap.
- Ilagan's last 5 losses were by margins of 6, 7, 5, 4, and 5 games, all within 3.5.
- Broady's last 5 wins were by margins of 4, 9, 4, 6, and 9 games, but Ilagan is tougher than those opponents.
- H2H margins: 7 games (2026) and 1 game (2025).
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAndre Ilagan +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Strong serving and competitive starts point to a first set with at least 10 games.
- Broady's first set vs Vukic was 7-6, and Ilagan's first sets in Newport were 7-5, 3-6, 6-3.
- H2H first sets: 6-4 and 6-3, both over 9.5.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 68%, suggesting holds.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Broady's strong start in H2H and high first-set conversion rate suggest he will take the opener.
- Broady won the first set in both H2H meetings.
- Broady's first-set win conversion rate is 88% career, while Ilagan's is 87%.
- Broady took the first set 7-6 vs Vukic, a top-105 player, on grass.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonLiam BroadyEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have average tiebreak rates, and the competitive nature of the match makes at least one tiebreak likely.
- Broady's tiebreak win rate is 50% career, Ilagan's 49%.
- Broady played a tiebreak in his last match (7-6 vs Vukic).
- Ilagan has played 4 tiebreaks in his last 10 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Grass surface and both players' ace rates suggest a combined total over 8.5 aces is likely in a competitive match.
- Broady averages 5% ace rate (career), Ilagan 4.4%.
- In H2H, Broady hit 4 aces in 2 matches, Ilagan 3.
- Grass typically increases ace counts; Broady had 5 aces vs Vukic (13 games).
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, and a longer match will push the total over 5.5.
- Broady's double fault rate is 3.2%, Ilagan's 3.3%.
- H2H: Broady 2 DF, Ilagan 4 DF in 2 matches.
- Ilagan's recent three-setters increase service games, raising DF chances.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W6-4 6-1Liam Broady#209vAndre Ilagan#263Apr 3, 2026

W6-3 1-6 7-6(5)Liam Broady#209vAndre Ilagan#263Feb 27, 2025

2 total meetings

Liam Broady

7W 8L

7-6(4) 6-3#104Aleksandar Vukic

2-6 7-5 7-6(5)#414Jack Kennedy

6-1 6-2#346Hayato Matsuoka

7-6(6) 4-6 7-5#143August Holmgren

7-5 6-2#66Zachary Svajda

6-2 6-4#248Raul Brancaccio

6-3 3-6 6-2#362Ioannis Xilas

6-4 6-2#84Daniel Merida Aguilar

5-7 6-3 6-3#184David Jorda Sanchis

6-3 6-0#272Cezar Cretu

6-2 4-6 6-3#168Daniil Glinka

6-3 6-0#413Daniel Dutra Da Silva

7-5 6-4#190Gianluca Cadenasso

6-3 6-4#179Alexis Galarneau

6-4 6-0#339Matthew Dellavedova

Andre Ilagan

11W 4L

7-5 3-6 6-3#213Rio Noguchi

3-6 6-4 6-3#432Alex Rybakov

6-3 6-4—Connor Plunkett

3-6 6-0 6-3#294Yosuke Watanuki

7-5 6-1#85Adam Walton

3-6 6-1 7-6(8)#506Karl Poling

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#356Yuta Shimizu

6-3 6-4#225Edas Butvilas

6-3 7-6(1)#270Fajing Sun

6-3 7-5#186Colton Smith

7-6(10) 6-7(4) 6-3#561Aidan Mayo

7-6(6) 3-1 ret.#492Enzo Aguiard

6-7(3) 6-4 7-5#326Yasutaka Uchiyama

6-3 6-7(2) 6-4#127Dane Sweeny

6-4 6-4#856Jason Jung