Tommy Paul #15United States00 – 2Carlos Alcaraz #3Spain2

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20

The read

Alcaraz has the stronger ranking, recent record and a clean head-to-head advantage.

• Alcaraz is 12-2 on hard in his last 14 completed matches.
• Alcaraz has won all six head-to-head meetings.
• Alcaraz is ranked 3; Paul is 15.
• Alcaraz won their 2026 US Open meeting 6-4 6-3 6-4.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Alcaraz's first sets often reach 10 games or more.

• Alcaraz's set1 average is 11.1 total games.
• Paul's set1 average is 9.4 total games.
• Alcaraz has three set1 tiebreaks in eight hard matches.
• Paul has one set1 tiebreak in 11 hard matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Alcaraz has usually won by at least three games in his recent hard-court wins.

• Alcaraz's recent hard margins: +6, +3, -3, +6, +3, +6.
• Five of those six margins cover -2.5.
• Alcaraz has won all six meetings with Paul.
• Alcaraz is 12-2 on hard in his last 14 completed matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Alcaraz's second sets average above 10 games and often stay tight.

• Alcaraz's set2 average is 10.5 total games.
• Paul's set2 average is 9.0 total games.
• Alcaraz has three set2 tiebreaks in eight hard matches.
• Paul has one set2 tiebreak in 11 hard matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20

The read

Alcaraz's tight sets and tiebreaks point to a total near the line.

• Alcaraz's hard best-of-three matches average 23.4 total games.
• Paul's hard best-of-three matches average 21.7 total games.
• Alcaraz has six tiebreaks in eight hard matches.
• Their 2026 US Open meeting had 28 games in three sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29

The read

Alcaraz's first-set record and head-to-head control make him the stronger starter.

• Alcaraz has won set1 in 6 of 8 hard best-of-three matches.
• Paul has won set1 in 8 of 11 hard best-of-three matches.
• Alcaraz has won all six meetings.
• Alcaraz's set1 games average is 6.1 won and 5.0 lost.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.29

The read

Alcaraz has the better second-set record and has controlled Paul in past meetings.

• Alcaraz has won set2 in 6 of 8 hard best-of-three matches.
• Paul has won set2 in 6 of 11 hard best-of-three matches.
• Alcaraz's set2 games average is 6.0 won and 4.5 lost.
• Alcaraz has won all six meetings.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40

The read

Straight-set finishes are the most common result in both players' hard-court samples.

• Alcaraz has five 2-0 wins in eight hard best-of-three matches.
• Paul has five 2-0 wins in 11 hard best-of-three matches.
• Alcaraz's average sets is 2.25; Paul's is 2.36.
• Alcaraz has won all six meetings.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60

The read

Alcaraz has the straight-set profile and head-to-head control to win without a third set.

• Alcaraz has five 2-0 wins in eight best-of-three hard matches.
• Alcaraz's set1 record is 6-2 and set2 record is 6-2 on hard.
• Alcaraz has won all six meetings with Paul.
• Alcaraz is 12-2 on hard in his last 14 completed matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Alcaraz's recent hard matches often include a tiebreak, and the head-to-head has done so three times.

• Alcaraz has six tiebreaks in eight hard best-of-three matches.
• Paul has two tiebreaks in 11 hard best-of-three matches.
• Alcaraz has three set1 and three set2 tiebreaks.
• Three of their six meetings included at least one tiebreak.