ChinaNingbo - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Ognjen Milic #363Serbia0Kaichi Uchida #417Japan2

Sets 6-7 · 2-6Mon 26 Oct 2026, 06:00 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions0–60%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOgnjen Milic · 54 places

Ognjen Milic

Serbia

Serbian player, born June 22, 2007. Public ranking sources recorded a then-career-best No. 339 in July 2026; handedness is inconsistent across available public profiles.

Current ranking: #363
Peak ranking: #339 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: —
Height: 183 cm

Kaichi Uchida

Japan

Uchida, 32, is the right-hander in this matchup. His recorded career-high ranking is No. 147, reached in May 2023.

Current ranking: #417
Peak ranking: #147 · 2023
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 12:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Uchida has lost 10 of 12 tracked hard-court matches, so this first round in Ningbo looks a kinder draw for Milic than 54 ranking places suggest.

Milic is the likelier winner, but the 1.44 offered on him asks for close to a 70% chance, and two hard-court matches plus a three-set loss on 20 October do not carry that far. No other reviewed price is worth taking.

Context

Uchida has had little to show from his recent hard-court weeks, and the damage has been concentrated in second sets.
Seven straight-set defeats in 12 hard-court matches show how often those weeks ended without a foothold. The split matters here: Uchida won 5 of 12 first sets but only 2 of 12 second sets across the same matches. If Milic takes the opener, the record suggests the second set has been the harder one for Uchida to hold, though Milic's own hard-court sample is only two matches.
- Uchida's 12 tracked hard-court matches (29 June to 20 October) produced scorelines of 0-2 seven times, 1-2 three times and 2-0 twice.
- Uchida won 5 first sets and lost 7, and won 2 second sets and lost 10, in that 12-match sample.
- Those 12 matches averaged 21.3 total games, with three containing a tiebreak.
Milic pushed a higher-ranked opponent the distance in his last outing and still came away beaten.
That defeat is the freshest evidence available on Milic and it cuts both ways: he took a set off a top-300 opponent and forced a decider, but he also lost it. It was a long, tight match rather than a collapse, with 17 games in each of the last two sets. Against an opponent on Uchida's recent run, that competitiveness matters, but it is a single result.
- On 20 October 2026 Milic lost 4-6 7-6 6-7 to Jay Dylan Hara Friend (ranked 272) on hard court.
- The match covered 36 games (17 won, 19 lost) and went to a deciding set.
Guangzhou ran on hard courts from 19 to, immediately before this China-leg fixture. Milić's Next Gen Accelerator entry identifies his route into that preceding main draw and gives the week a defined tournament context. An entry classification neither confirms a match played nor establishes his condition for Ningbo.
- Milić's Guangzhou main-draw entry came through the Next Gen Accelerator programme.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 12:42 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Guangzhou International Challengeren.wikipedia.org · 25 Oct 2026
Guangzhou ran on hard courts from 19 to, immediately before this China-leg fixture. Uchida's alternate entry defines how he was listed for that preceding main draw. It does not establish that he played there or provide an availability update for Ningbo.
- Uchida's Guangzhou main-draw entry was as an alternate.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Oct 2026, 12:42 · Europe/Bucharest2026 Guangzhou International Challengeren.wikipedia.org · 25 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Ognjen Milic

1.44fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 69.4%

−6.4ppshort

Milic has the stronger recent record and Uchida has lost 10 of 12 hard-court matches, with both wins against lower-ranked opponents.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Milic has the stronger recent record and Uchida has lost 10 of 12 hard-court matches, with both wins against lower-ranked opponents.
- Ognjen Milic is 9-6 over his last 15 matches; Kaichi Uchida is 2-13.
- On hard courts, Milic is 1-1 and Uchida is 2-10 in the tracked sample.
- Uchida's two hard-court wins came against players ranked 898 and 427.
- Uchida has won only 41.8% of his hard-court games in the sample.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOgnjen MilicEstimated chance63%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court first sets average below 10 games, so an under is slightly more likely.
- Milic's hard-court set1 total games average is 9.0.
- Uchida's hard-court set1 total games average is 9.25.
- Uchida's set1 has produced two tiebreaks in 12 hard-court matches.
- Milic's latest hard-court first set was 4-6, totaling 10 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Milic's latest hard match went long and Uchida has several extended losses, offsetting Uchida's many short straight-set defeats.
- Milic's hard-court matches average 26.0 total games.
- Uchida's hard-court matches average 21.3 total games.
- Milic's latest hard-court match had 36 games.
- Uchida has three three-set losses on hard courts in the sample.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 23.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Milic is favored overall, but Uchida has been more competitive in first sets than second sets.
- Milic's hard-court set1 record is 1-1.
- Uchida's hard-court set1 record is 5-7.
- Uchida has won 5 of 12 first sets on hard courts.
- Match winner favors Milic at 63%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostOgnjen MilicEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combined hard-court sample leans toward matches without a tiebreak.
- Uchida has three tiebreaks in 12 hard-court matches.
- Milic has one tiebreak in two hard-court matches.
- Combined, 4 of 14 hard-court matches in the sample had a tiebreak.
- Uchida's hard-court set2 has one tiebreak in 12 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Uchida's hard-court ace rate and Milic's one high-ace hard match put the total near the line.
- Milic averages 4.1 aces per match overall; Uchida averages 5.3.
- Uchida averages 6.2 aces per match on hard courts.
- Milic had 17 aces in one hard-court match.
- The combined overall average is 9.4, just below the line.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault rates sit just above the line, with Milic the higher contributor.
- Milic averages 3.7 double faults per match; Uchida averages 2.9.
- Uchida averages 2.8 double faults per match on hard courts.
- Milic averaged 4.0 double faults in his one hard-court match.
- The combined overall average is 6.6.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Ognjen Milic: 6/7 recent winner projections matched

6 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Ognjen Milic matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Ognjen Milic7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jun·Plovdiv - Bulgaria

#871Andres Santamarta Roig2-0#370Ognjen Milic

BetBugsOgnjen Milic to win·65%

Missed

25 Jun 2026

Plovdiv - Bulgaria

#871Andres Santamarta Roig2-0#370Ognjen Milic

Ognjen Milic to win

65%probability

Andres Santamarta Roig won

Missed

24 Jun·Plovdiv - Bulgaria

#463Eero Vasa1-2#370Ognjen Milic

BetBugsOgnjen Milic to win·58%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

Plovdiv - Bulgaria

#463Eero Vasa1-2#370Ognjen Milic

Ognjen Milic to win

58%probability

Ognjen Milic won

Matched

22 Jun·Plovdiv - Bulgaria

#741Yanaki Milev1-2#359Ognjen Milic

BetBugsOgnjen Milic to win·65%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

Plovdiv - Bulgaria

#741Yanaki Milev1-2#359Ognjen Milic

Ognjen Milic to win

65%probability

Ognjen Milic won

Matched

20 May·Bengaluru - India

#529Sidharth Rawat0-2#378Ognjen Milic

BetBugsOgnjen Milic to win·62%

Matched

20 May 2026

Bengaluru - India

#529Sidharth Rawat0-2#378Ognjen Milic

Ognjen Milic to win

62%probability

Ognjen Milic won

Matched

19 May·Bengaluru - India

#868Thanapet Chanta0-2#378Ognjen Milic

BetBugsOgnjen Milic to win·72%

Matched

19 May 2026

Bengaluru - India

#868Thanapet Chanta0-2#378Ognjen Milic

Ognjen Milic to win

72%probability

Ognjen Milic won

Matched

Ognjen Milic

9W 6L

6-4 6-7(3) 7-6(5)#272Jay Dylan Hara Friend

6-2 6-2—Pijus Vaitiekunas

3-6 6-2 6-3#212Alex Barrena

6-0 7-6(3)#285Georgii Kravchenko

7-5 5-7 6-2#721George Lazarov

6-2 4-6 7-5#389Lucio Ratti

2-6 7-6(5) 6-4#845Vuk Radjenovic

6-1 2-6 6-4—Ruslan Tiukaev

6-4 6-3#392Gabriele Piraino

6-0 6-0#457Ivan Ivanov

6-3 2-6 6-4#607Anton Arzhankin

6-3 6-4—Niksa Arsic

6-4 7-6(5)#566Pierre Delage

6-2 6-3—Milos Mikovic

6-4 6-2#833Jorge Plans

Kaichi Uchida

2W 13L

7-6(1) 6-3#170Zhizhen Zhang

6-2 6-4#221Ilya Ivashka

6-2 7-5#898Jesse Delaney

4-6 7-5 6-4#565Ryan Seggerman

7-6(8) 6-2#427Masamichi Imamura

6-1 6-2#135Federico Cina

3-6 6-2 6-3#215Rio Noguchi

6-3 7-5#817Linang Xiao

3-6 6-3 6-2#822Hanyi Liu

6-1 7-6(3)#788Tianhui Zhang

6-2 6-1#182Alexis Galarneau

6-4 6-3#319Daniel Milavsky

6-4 6-4#398Jack Kennedy

6-3 6-2#180Bernard Tomic

6-3 6-4#468Quinn Vandecasteele

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

OMOgnjen MilicMilic

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Kaichi UchidaUchidaKU

Ognjen Milic carries the stronger recent form — Kaichi Uchida's route runs through serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1555.3%+1.7pp53.6%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1564.6%+3.3pp67.9%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1548.3%—48.1%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/154.1+1.25.3

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.70.8 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1543.3%+10.2pp33.1%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1559.2%+27.4pp31.8%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1560.0%+4.0pp56.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1550.7%+4.8pp45.9%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

55.3%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+1.7pp53.6%

64.6%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.3pp67.9%

48.3%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15—48.1%

4.1Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.25.3

3.7Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.8 fewer2.9

Return · 1–0

43.3%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+10.2pp33.1%

Pressure · 2–0

59.2%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+27.4pp31.8%

60.0%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+4.0pp56.0%

Points · 1–0

50.7%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+4.8pp45.9%