Plovdiv - BulgariaFinished

Predictions graded

Andres Santamarta Roig #871Spain2Ognjen Milic #370Serbia0

Sets 6-0 · 6-2Thu 25 Jun 2026, 08:09 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions0–60%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOgnjen Milic · 501 places

Andres Santamarta Roig

Spain

Born on 2007-01-23. He reached junior world No. 1 in June 2025 and a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 604 on 2026-02-02. The structured match reference lists him at No. 871 for this fixture, so he arrives below his early-2026 peak.

Current ranking: #871
Peak ranking: #604 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Ognjen Milic

Serbia

Reliable public bio data is thin. What is clear is a 2026 Serbia Davis Cup call-up and repeated Challenger-level opportunities in Bengaluru, Yokkaichi, Jiujiang and Wuxi, alongside the structured current ranking of No. 370 for this match.

Current ranking: #370
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Jun 2026, 22:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Ognjen Milic's higher ranking (370 vs. 871), strong recent form, and clay-court toughness give him a clear edge over Andres Santamarta Roig.

Back Milic to win at 2.30 and consider Milic 2-1 at 5.00 for value, while avoiding Santamarta Roig straight sets. Expect a competitive match with over 21.5 total games.

Context

Milic won 4 of his last 5 matches, with the only loss to a top-100 player (De Jong, rank 74).
- He has won 3 of his last 5 matches in three sets, showing resilience under pressure.
- His career deciding-set win rate is 67%, and first-set win conversion is 94%.
- This week in Plovdiv, he beat Vasa (rank 463) and Milev (rank 750) in three sets.
Santamarta Roig's current ranking is 871, while Milic is 370.
- His two most recent wins were against Dalla Valle (rank 363) and Henning (rank 252), but prior losses were to players ranked 234, 85, and 277.
- He lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including against Alcala Gurri (rank 234) and Merida Aguilar (rank 85).
- His career first-set win conversion is 96%, but recent form suggests a slow-starting trend.
Milic has 34 career clay wins and a 70.5% overall win rate.
- His 67% deciding-set win rate is well-suited to clay, where matches are more likely to go the distance.
- Santamarta Roig has 33 career clay wins but a lower overall win rate (54.1%).
- Both players have played almost exclusively on clay in their careers, so no surface mismatch is expected.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Ognjen Milic's higher ranking, superior career win rate, and recent form against comparable opposition give him a clear edge over Andres Santamarta Roig.
- Ognjen Milic has a 70.5% career win rate and 67% deciding-set win rate, indicating strong match toughness.
- Andres Santamarta Roig is ranked 871, while Milic is 370, a significant ranking gap favoring Milic.
- Milic has won 4 of his last 5 matches, including two three-set wins this tournament, showing good form.
- Santamarta Roig's recent wins came against lower-ranked opponents (363, 252), while Milic has beaten players around his level.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostOgnjen MilicEstimated chance65%

Games0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' recent match lengths and Milic's propensity for three-set battles, the total games are likely to exceed 21.5.
- Both players have been involved in competitive matches recently: Santamarta Roig's last 5 matches averaged 19.6 games, Milic's averaged 22.8 games.
- Milic has played three-setters in 3 of his last 5 matches, indicating a tendency for longer matches.
- Santamarta Roig's matches often feature close sets (e.g., 6-4, 7-5), contributing to higher game totals.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Milic's high first-set win conversion and recent ability to take early leads against solid opponents suggest he is likely to win the opening set.
- Milic has a 94% first-set win conversion rate, showing he often starts strong.
- Santamarta Roig's first-set win conversion is 96%, but his recent first-set performances have been inconsistent (lost first set in 3 of last 5 matches).
- Milic won the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including against higher-ranked opponents.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostOgnjen MilicEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Milic's strong serving, with a 6.7% ace rate, is likely to produce enough aces to surpass 5.5 total aces in the match.
- Milic has a high ace rate of 6.7%, averaging around 4-5 aces per match based on his serve stats.
- Santamarta Roig's ace rate is low at 1.2%, but Milic's serve dominance could push the total over 5.5.
- In recent matches, Milic has served multiple aces, including in tight three-setters.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both players having moderate double fault rates and the match possibly going three sets, over 6.5 double faults is a balanced expectation.
- Both players have similar double fault rates: Milic 4.3%, Santamarta Roig 4.0%.
- In a potentially long match, double faults could accumulate, with each player averaging 2-3 per set.
- Milic's lower first-serve percentage (53.1%) may lead to more second serves and double fault opportunities.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 6.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 1 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Andres Santamarta Roig

7W 8L

6-2 6-4#363Enrico Dalla Valle

6-4 6-1#252Philip Henning

7-5 6-1#234Max Alcala Gurri

6-3 6-4#85Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-4 6-4#860Francisco Rocha

4-6 6-1 6-2#417Stefan Palosi

6-4 3-6 4-1 ret.#248Raul Brancaccio

6-4 6-2#277Andrej Nedic

6-3 6-4#388Geoffrey Blancaneaux

6-2 2-6 6-3#215Nikolas Sanchez-Izquierdo

6-4 6-2#285Sumit Nagal

6-0 4-6 6-3#593Gerard Campana Lee

6-0 6-4#228Lorenzo Giustino

6-0 6-4#512Carlos Lopez Montagud

7-6(5) 6-1#228Lorenzo Giustino

Ognjen Milic

9W 6L

2-6 6-1 6-4#463Eero Vasa

6-2 3-6 6-4#750Yanaki Milev

6-4 6-4#307Thomas Faurel

6-1 7-6(3)#74Jesper De Jong

6-2 6-1#305Hamish Stewart

6-3 6-1#525Sidharth Rawat

6-4 6-4#844Thanapet Chanta

7-6(5) 6-3#246Keegan Smith

3-6 6-4 6-3#751Joshua Charlton

6-1 7-6(5)#897Dev Javia

6-4 6-3#107Bu Yunchaokete

6-3 3-6 6-1#360Luca Castelnuovo

6-4 5-7 6-1#873Yaojie Zeng

6-4 6-1#261Fajing Sun

6-3 6-7(3) 6-1#394Renta Tokuda