ChinaNingbo - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Luca Castelnuovo #449Switzerland0Filip Peliwo #641Canada2

Sets 6-7 · 1-6Mon 26 Oct 2026, 06:00 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions2–722%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLuca Castelnuovo · 192 places

Luca Castelnuovo

Switzerland

Castelnuovo, 29, is the left-hander in this matchup and lists hard as his preferred surface. His best singles ranking is No. 342, reached in May 2026.

Current ranking: #449
Peak ranking: #342 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Filip Peliwo

Canada

Peliwo reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 161 in May 2018. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #641
Peak ranking: #161 · 2018
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Oct 2026, 22:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Castelnuovo holds a 192-place ranking edge, but Peliwo brings the better hard-court record, so this third qualifying round in Ningbo is tighter than the prices suggest.

The 1.22 on Castelnuovo to win and the 1.3 for either set ask far more than his 7-6 hard-court record supports. Peliwo at 3.8 for the match, 3.25 for the first set and 3.25 for the second are the three prices offering potential value.

Context

Peliwo, ranked 641, has won nine of those 14 matches while rarely being extended past two sets.
Peliwo's sets are short and his matches seldom stretch, so he tends either to win quickly or to lose quickly. That profile argues against a long three-setter, but Castelnuovo's own matches run much longer, so it is a lean rather than a settled pattern.
- Peliwo's 14 completed hard-court matches from 14 September to 25 October 2026 include eight 2-0 wins, five 0-2 losses and one 2-1 win.
- Only three of those 14 matches contained a tiebreak, and his average match length is 2.07 sets.
The result came one day before Peliwo's 6-2 6-3 win over Saba Purtseladze, ranked 575.
The defeat is a reminder that Peliwo's win-heavy hard-court record has been built largely against modest opposition, with several unranked opponents among his recent victories. One match does not establish a pattern, but it shows the ranking gap to Castelnuovo is not the only measure of either man's week in Ningbo.
- Peliwo lost 3-6 3-6 to Mikalai Haliak, ranked 898, on 24 October 2026 in a completed hard-court match.
- The match finished in two sets, with Peliwo winning six games across them.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Luca has the higher ranking and has faced stronger recent opposition, while Peliwo's better record is built on lower-ranked wins.
- Luca is ranked 449, 192 places above Peliwo at 641.
- Luca is 7-6 across 13 hard-court matches; Peliwo is 9-5 across 14.
- Luca's hard-court set1 and set2 records are both 8-5.
- Peliwo's recent wins include three over unranked opponents.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLuca CastelnuovoEstimated chance53%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets average around or above ten games.
- Luca's second sets average 10.6 total games; Peliwo's average 9.9.
- Luca has three second-set tiebreaks in 13 hard-court matches.
- Peliwo has two second-set tiebreaks in 14 hard-court matches.
- The combined second-set average is about 10.3 games.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Peliwo's short first sets are the stronger signal for the under 9.5 outcome.
- Peliwo's first sets average 8.4 total games.
- Peliwo has only one first-set tiebreak in 14 matches.
- Luca's first sets average 10.8 total games.
- Luca has five first-set tiebreaks in 13 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Luca's close sets raise the game count, though Peliwo's shorter matches pull it down.
- Luca's hard-court matches average 24.5 total games; Peliwo's average 19.0.
- Luca's average set totals are 10.8 and 10.6.
- Peliwo's average set totals are 8.4 and 9.9.
- Luca has played four three-set matches in 13 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both players' hard-court records.
- Peliwo's hard-court matches average 2.07 sets.
- Luca's hard-court matches average 2.31 sets.
- Peliwo has 8 straight-set wins and 5 straight-set losses in 14 matches.
- Luca has 9 straight-set results in 13 matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Luca's first-set record is slightly stronger and his games are closer, supporting a narrow edge.
- Luca has won 8 of 13 first sets on hard.
- Peliwo has won 8 of 14 first sets on hard.
- Luca's first-set game average is 5.62 won to 5.23 lost.
- Peliwo's first-set game average is 4.50 won to 3.86 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLuca CastelnuovoEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.25
The read
Peliwo's second-set record and game margin are slightly stronger.
- Peliwo has won 9 of 14 second sets on hard.
- Luca has lost 5 of 13 second sets on hard.
- Peliwo's second-set game average is 5.50 won to 4.43 lost.
- Peliwo won his latest second set 6-3.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonFilip PeliwoEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Peliwo's short sets and low tiebreak count tilt this toward no tiebreak.
- Peliwo has had a tiebreak in only 3 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Luca has had a tiebreak in 7 of 13 hard-court matches.
- Peliwo has had only three matches with a tiebreak in 14 hard-court matches.
- Peliwo's latest match had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%

Previous match context available

Luca Castelnuovo

8W 7L

6-2 6-4#857Yusuke Kusuhara

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#431Khumoun Sultanov

6-3 6-4#405Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

7-6(5) 6-4#853Egor Pleshivtsev

6-3 3-6 7-6(5)#309Akira Santillan

6-7(4) 7-5 7-5#172Pavel Kotov

7-6(6) 6-4#228Elias Ymer

6-7(6) 6-2 1-0 ret.#388Omar Jasika

6-3 6-4#221Ilya Ivashka

6-4 6-4#819Ji Sung Nam

7-5 6-4#353Tung-Lin Wu

3-6 7-6(7) 6-2#217Chun Hsin Tseng

6-4 6-2#803Tsung-Hao Huang

4-6 6-3 4-1 ret.#250Matthew Dellavedova

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-1#747Kuan-Shou Chen

Filip Peliwo

9W 6L

6-2 6-3#575Saba Purtseladze

6-3 6-3#898Mikalai Haliak

6-1 6-3—Lin Hao-Yu

6-1 7-6(4)—Xirui Han

6-2 6-3—Jordan Chiu

6-2 7-5#614Yaroslav Demin

6-3 7-6(10)#609Timofei Derepasko

7-6(5) 6-1#636Max Purcell

6-2 6-4#68Mattia Bellucci

6-3 6-3#747Kuan-Shou Chen

6-4 6-2#435Enzo Aguiard

6-1 7-5—Xing Dao Chen

6-1 4-2 ret.#194Moise Kouame

1-6 6-3 6-4#510Tai Sach

6-1 6-4#815Sam Ryan Ziegann

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LCLuca CastelnuovoCastelnuovo

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Filip PeliwoPeliwoFP

Luca Castelnuovo carries the stronger recent form — Filip Peliwo's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1562.3%+3.3pp59.0%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1578.7%+7.9pp70.8%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1550.7%+3.2pp47.5%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/1511.9+9.52.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.11.3 fewer1.8

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1533.2%+8.7pp41.9%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1534.5%+10.8pp45.3%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1571.8%+10.1pp61.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1550.8%+0.8pp51.6%

Serve · 4–1

62.3%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+3.3pp59.0%

78.7%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+7.9pp70.8%

50.7%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+3.2pp47.5%

11.9Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+9.52.4

3.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.3 fewer1.8

Return · 0–1

33.2%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+8.7pp41.9%

Pressure · 1–1

34.5%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+10.8pp45.3%

71.8%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+10.1pp61.7%

Points · 0–1

50.8%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+0.8pp51.6%