ChinaNingbo - ChinaFinished

Predictions graded

Filip Peliwo #641Canada2Saba Purtseladze #581Georgia0

Sets 6-2 · 6-3Sun 25 Oct 2026, 11:30 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions8–189%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageSaba Purtseladze · 60 places

Filip Peliwo

Canada

Peliwo reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 161 in May 2018. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #641
Peak ranking: #161 · 2018
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Saba Purtseladze

Georgia

The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high No. 237 on 9 June 2025 and is currently No. 659.

Current ranking: #581
Peak ranking: #237 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 20:44 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players outside the top 500 meet in a Ningbo qualifying opener with nothing on record between them; Peliwo's deeper hard-court sample (9-5 in 14 completed matches) makes him a narrow favourite over Purtseladze (2-3 in five on hard, though ranked 60 places higher).

No price was supplied to review, so there is no quote to recommend or dismiss; the stronger sporting lean is a straight-sets finish.

Context

Peliwo's recent hard-court results have been decided quickly, in either direction.
For this matchup it points to short work: Peliwo has been winning or losing quickly on hard courts, and only one of his 14 matches needed a third set. That supports a straight-sets lean more than it settles a winner. The sample runs only from 13 September and excludes one retirement, so it describes a seven-week stretch rather than a settled habit.
- 14 completed hard-court matches, 13 September to 24 October 2026
- Scorelines: eight wins 2-0, five losses 0-2, one win 2-1
- Average total games 19.1; first sets average 8.4 games, second sets 10.0
This is the pair's entry point into the Ningbo qualifying draw and defines the immediate tournament stakes. Court 6 is the scheduled venue for the match, rather than a main-showcourt assignment. The listing supplies the match setting but does not establish a player-specific court or scheduling advantage.
- The fixture is listed as a Ningbo Challenger 75 qualifying first-round match on Court 6.
ReportedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 20:43 · Europe/BucharestTennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 24 Oct 2026
The match begins without a prior direct meeting to provide fixture-specific tactical or competitive context. Their first encounter comes in Ningbo qualifying, so neither brings a recorded head-to-head result from an earlier event. This does not describe either player's wider hard-court record or establish a matchup advantage.
- Their head-to-head record contains no prior match.
ReportedSources checked 24 Oct 2026, 20:43 · Europe/BucharestMatchStatmatchstat.com · 24 Oct 2026
Purtseladze brings a much thinner hard-court sample than his opponent into the qualifying opener.
Purtseladze has the thinner hard-court sample of the two, five completed matches spread from 3 August to 19 October 2026, and every one finished 2-0 either way. His 2-3 record there sits close to Peliwo's level despite a 60-place ranking edge. Two retirements were excluded, so the sample is small enough that it should not be read as a trend.
- Five completed hard-court matches, 3 August to 19 October 2026, record 2-3
- Scorelines: two wins 2-0, three losses 0-2
- Two retirements excluded; average total games 19.2

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Peliwo has the longer and better hard-court record, but both men sit in a similar ranking band, so the edge is only narrow.
- Peliwo 9-5 across 14 completed hard-court matches; Purtseladze 2-3 across 5
- Ranking: Purtseladze 581, Peliwo 641
- Peliwo's most recent completed match was a 3-6 3-6 loss to world No. 880 Mikalai Haliak
- No head-to-head on record
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFilip PeliwoEstimated chance53%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' matches on this surface sit right around or just under the line, with straight-set finishes dominating.
- Peliwo's completed hard-court matches average 19.1 total games
- Purtseladze's hard-court matches average 19.2 total games
- 18 of the combined 19 completed matches ended in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 19.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Peliwo's quick starts pull the expected opening-set total down, making a shorter first set marginally more likely.
- Peliwo's first sets average 4.5 games to 3.9
- He played eight first sets decided by a single break or more
- Purtseladze's first sets still average under 10 games
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been slightly longer than first sets for both players, putting the total just above the line.
- Peliwo's second sets average 10.0 total games
- Purtseladze's second sets average 9.4 total games
- Blended second-set average is about 9.7
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Almost every completed match for both players in this window has finished in straight sets.
- Peliwo's hard-court scorelines: 8 wins 2-0, 5 losses 0-2, only 1 match 2-1
- All 5 of Purtseladze's hard-court matches finished 2-0 either way
- Combined average sets per match is about 2.05
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance83%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Peliwo has won the opening set in a clear majority of his recent hard-court matches and starts marginally favoured.
- Peliwo leads first sets 8-6 in 14 completed hard-court matches (4.5 games won, 3.9 lost)
- Purtseladze is 2-3 in first sets on hard
- Peliwo's first sets average 8.4 total games
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFilip PeliwoEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Peliwo's second-set record is his strongest part of the match and is better than Purtseladze's on the same surface.
- Peliwo is 9-5 in second sets across 14 hard-court matches
- He averages 5.5 games won and 4.5 lost in second sets
- Purtseladze is 2-3 in second sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonFilip PeliwoEstimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of these players' sets are settled before reaching 6-6.
- Peliwo had 3 tiebreak matches in 14, roughly one in five
- Purtseladze had 2 in 5 hard-court matches
- Most sets for both end by a break rather than a shootout
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance72%

Filip Peliwo

9W 6L

6-3 6-3#880Mikalai Haliak

6-1 6-3—Lin Hao-Yu

6-1 7-6(4)—Xirui Han

6-2 6-3—Jordan Chiu

6-2 7-5#614Yaroslav Demin

6-3 7-6(10)#609Timofei Derepasko

7-6(5) 6-1#636Max Purcell

6-2 6-4#68Mattia Bellucci

6-3 6-3#747Kuan-Shou Chen

6-4 6-2#435Enzo Aguiard

6-1 7-5—Xing Dao Chen

6-1 4-2 ret.#194Moise Kouame

1-6 6-3 6-4#510Tai Sach

6-1 6-4#852Sam Ryan Ziegann

6-3 6-4—Arjun Rathi

Saba Purtseladze

6W 9L

6-4 7-6(6)#431Khumoun Sultanov

6-1 6-2#427Masamichi Imamura

4-6 6-1 6-3—Nicola Rispoli

7-5 6-2—Nika Bidzinashvili

4-6 6-0 3-2 ret.#601Adrian Andreev

6-2 6-4#407Johan Nikles

6-2 3-6 6-1#409Izan Almazan Valiente

6-4 6-3—Nikita Ianin

2-2 ret.#138Matej Dodig

6-1 5-7 7-5#262Max Hans Rehberg

6-4 7-5#796Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski

7-5 7-5#469Denis Yevseyev

6-1 6-4—Richard Antoni

7-6(2) 6-4#311Mert Alkaya

6-3 6-1#575Toufik Sahtali

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FPFilip PeliwoPeliwo

Last 15

5–4

9 core stats · 0 even

Saba PurtseladzePurtseladzeSP

Filip Peliwo carries the stronger recent form — Saba Purtseladze's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1558.0%+2.1pp55.9%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1570.8%+3.8pp74.6%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1547.9%+3.6pp44.3%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/152.4+4.06.4

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.93.4 fewer5.3

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1541.4%+3.4pp38.0%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1546.7%+4.0pp50.7%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1560.0%+3.0pp63.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1551.4%+1.4pp50.0%

Serve · 3–2

58.0%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+2.1pp55.9%

70.8%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.8pp74.6%

47.9%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+3.6pp44.3%

2.4Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+4.06.4

1.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/153.4 fewer5.3

Return · 1–0

41.4%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+3.4pp38.0%

Pressure · 0–2

46.7%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+4.0pp50.7%

60.0%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+3.0pp63.0%

Points · 1–0

51.4%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+1.4pp50.0%