ChinaNingbo - ChinaFinished

Luca Castelnuovo #449Switzerland2Yusuke Kusuhara #857Japan0

Sets 6-2 · 6-4Sun 25 Oct 2026, 13:00Q1Hard

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLuca Castelnuovo · 408 places

Luca Castelnuovo

Switzerland

Castelnuovo, 29, is the left-hander in this matchup and lists hard as his preferred surface. His best singles ranking is No. 342, reached in May 2026.

Current ranking: #449
Peak ranking: #342 · 2026
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Yusuke Kusuhara

Japan

Limited reliable public profile information found. Use the form section as the main player context.

Current ranking: #857
Peak ranking: —
Current age: —
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Oct 2026, 20:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Castelnuovo's 408-place ranking edge over Kusuhara makes him the likelier winner of this Ningbo qualifying match, with straight sets the likelier shape on both records.

Kusuhara's 49.4% total points won keeps it competitive rather than one-sided. The 1.3 on Castelnuovo asks for about a 77% win rate, well beyond the case, and no reviewed price is worth backing.

Context

No research coverage, injury news or tournament context was found; the read rests on two 13-match hard-court samples and a ranking gap.

That average gives the opening set a decent chance of stretching past the 9.5-game line discussed for this match, and a single break has often not been enough to settle it. He won 5.6 first-set games to 5.4 lost in the same sample, so the length came without a decisive edge. Kusuhara's first sets average 10.2 games with four tiebreaks in 13, which points the same way.
- Castelnuovo set1: 11.0 total games average, 5.6 won to 5.4 lost, over 13 hard-court matches (28 Aug–20 Oct 2026)
- Five first-set tiebreaks in those 13 matches
- Kusuhara set1 in the same format: 10.2 total games average, four tiebreaks in 13 matches
Those are workable figures that sit alongside a 7-8 record in the same window and explain why the ranking gap is not the whole story. He saved 63.1% of break points, so his service games have held up better than a 49.4% point share suggests. Against a left-handed opponent, the second-serve number of 50.6% points won is the softest part of the profile.
- 15 matches tracked: 60.2% first serves in (654/1087), 65.7% first-serve points won (430/654)
- 49.4% total points won (1044/2114) and 50.6% second-serve points won (219/433)
- 63.1% break points saved (70/111); average match length 122 minutes
It was a narrow defeat in which he stayed level through both sets without winning either, so the scoreline is closer than a routine straight-set loss. It is also the freshest evidence in his record, and with serve and return splits unavailable, the ranking gap carries much of his case. Kusuhara, by contrast, arrives from a 1-6, 1-6 defeat on 23 October.
- 20 Oct 2026: lost 6-7, 6-7 to Khumoun Sultanov (ranked 431) on hard court
- Games: 12 won, 14 lost; no retirement

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Lean

Luca Castelnuovo

1.30fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 76.9%

−14.9ppshort

The ranking gap and Luca's better hard-court record make him the more likely winner, although neither player has a large high-level sample.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
The ranking gap and Luca's better hard-court record make him the more likely winner, although neither player has a large high-level sample.
- Luca is ranked 449, 408 places above Kusuhara at 857.
- Luca is 7-6 on hard courts in the tracked sample; Kusuhara is 6-7.
- Kusuhara has won 49.1% of total points and 49.0% of games on hard courts.
- Luca's 13 hard-court scorelines include six 2-0 wins and one 2-1 win.
BetBugs · Match WinnerLuca CastelnuovoMarket price1.30Estimated chance62%

Games0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets regularly reach at least ten games, and tiebreaks are common.
- Luca's set1 matches average 11.0 total games; Kusuhara's average 10.2.
- Luca has five set1 tiebreaks in 13 hard-court matches; Kusuhara has four.
- Both set1 averages are above the 9.5 line.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GamesOver 9.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are common for both players, which limits how often the total reaches 23.5 games.
- Kusuhara's hard-court matches average 22.2 total games.
- Luca has nine straight-set matches in 13 hard-court scorelines; Kusuhara has ten in 13.
- Luca's hard-court matches average 2.31 sets; Kusuhara's average 2.23.
- Kusuhara's set2 average is 9.3 total games.
BetBugs · Total GamesUnder 23.5Estimated chance54%

Sets0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes dominate both recent hard-court records, making under 2.5 sets the more likely match length.
- Luca's 13 hard-court scorelines include nine straight-set finishes.
- Kusuhara's 13 hard-court scorelines include ten straight-set finishes.
- Luca averages 2.31 sets per hard-court match; Kusuhara 2.23.
BetBugs · Total SetsUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Luca's stronger first-set record and higher ranking make him the more likely first-set winner.
- Luca has won set1 in 8 of 13 hard-court matches; Kusuhara has won set1 in 6 of 13.
- Luca's set1 average is 5.6 games won to 5.4 lost; Kusuhara's is 4.9 to 5.3.
- Luca is ranked 449; Kusuhara is ranked 857.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerLuca CastelnuovoEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Luca's set2 record and game margin are slightly stronger, supporting him as the more likely second-set winner.
- Luca has won set2 in 8 of 13 hard-court matches; Kusuhara has won 7 of 13.
- Luca's set2 average is 5.7 games won to 4.9 lost; Kusuhara's is 4.7 to 4.6.
- Luca is ranked 449 and Kusuhara 857.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerLuca CastelnuovoEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have frequent tiebreaks in the tracked hard-court sample, so at least one is more likely than not.
- Luca has seven hard-court matches with a tiebreak in 13; Kusuhara has six in 13.
- Luca has five set1 tiebreaks and three set2 tiebreaks; Kusuhara has four and two.
- Both players' first-set game averages are high.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchYesEstimated chance52%

Luca Castelnuovo

8W 7L

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#431Khumoun Sultanov

6-3 6-4#405Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

7-6(5) 6-4#853Egor Pleshivtsev

6-3 3-6 7-6(5)#309Akira Santillan

6-7(4) 7-5 7-5#172Pavel Kotov

7-6(6) 6-4#228Elias Ymer

6-7(6) 6-2 1-0 ret.#388Omar Jasika

6-3 6-4#221Ilya Ivashka

6-4 6-4#819Ji Sung Nam

7-5 6-4#353Tung-Lin Wu

3-6 7-6(7) 6-2#217Chun Hsin Tseng

6-4 6-2#788Tsung-Hao Huang

4-6 6-3 4-1 ret.#250Matthew Dellavedova

6-7(3) 7-6(4) 6-1#747Kuan-Shou Chen

6-4 6-4#284Yanki Erel

Yusuke Kusuhara

7W 8L

6-1 6-1#615Takuya Kumasaka

6-4 6-1#877Makoto Ochi

6-0 6-1—Kodai Abe

7-5 3-6 6-3#891Sora Fukuda

4-6 6-3 7-6(8)#250Matthew Dellavedova

7-6(6) 6-2#892Ryotaro Taguchi

6-4 6-4—Riku Takahata

7-6(6) 6-4#357Jake Delaney

6-4 7-6(4)—Shu Matsuoka

6-4 6-1—Youssef Kadiri Hassani

7-6(2) 7-5#747Kazuki Nishiwaki

6-7(7) 7-6(1) 7-5—Eito Komada

6-2 6-4—Shu Matsuoka

6-4 6-0—Yu Tanaka

6-0 6-3#250Matthew Dellavedova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LCLuca CastelnuovoCastelnuovo

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Yusuke KusuharaKusuharaYK

Luca Castelnuovo carries the stronger recent form — Yusuke Kusuhara's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

1st Serve In61.7%+1.5pp60.2%

1st Serve Won78.7%+13.0pp65.7%

2nd Serve Won50.7%—50.6%

Aces / Match11.6+9.12.5

Double Faults / Match3.3—3.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won33.1%+5.4pp38.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted34.9%+10.2pp45.1%

Break Pts Saved72.0%+8.9pp63.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.7%+1.3pp49.4%

Serve · 3–0 · 2 even

61.7%1st Serve In+1.5pp60.2%

78.7%1st Serve Won+13.0pp65.7%

50.7%2nd Serve Won—50.6%

11.6Aces / Match+9.12.5

3.3Double Faults / Match—3.3

Return · 0–1

33.1%Return Pts Won+5.4pp38.5%

Pressure · 1–1

34.9%Break Pts Converted+10.2pp45.1%

72.0%Break Pts Saved+8.9pp63.1%

Points · 1–0

50.7%Total Pts Won+1.3pp49.4%