Flavio Cobolli #6Italy22 – 1Brandon Nakashima #17United States1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30

The read

Cobolli's average game deficit is small, so a five-game loss is less likely than not.

• Cobolli's hard-court games margin is -12 over 13 matches, an average of -0.9.
• Nakashima's recent Lyon margins were +5 and +4.
• Cobolli +4.5 loses only if Nakashima wins the game count by at least five.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets for both players average above ten games, so over 9.5 is more likely than under.

• Cobolli's second sets average 10.33 games; Nakashima's average 10.92.
• Nakashima has four second-set tiebreaks in 12 format-matched matches; Cobolli has two in nine.
• Nakashima's last six second sets include 6-7 and 7-5.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Nakashima's first sets often go beyond nine games, and his tiebreak rate lifts the over.

• Nakashima's first sets average 11.25 games with 6 tiebreaks in 12.
• Cobolli's first sets average 9.22 games with 1 tiebreak in 9.
• Nakashima's Lyon first sets were 7-6 and 6-4.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10

The read

The combined set averages sit just above the line, and Nakashima's tiebreak frequency raises the chance of a longer match.

• Cobolli's format-matched matches average 25 total games; Nakashima's average 26.
• Nakashima has had a tiebreak in 8 of 12 hard-court best-of-3 matches; Cobolli in 2 of 9.
• Set 1 and set 2 averages are at least 9.2 and 10.3 games for both players.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Cobolli's average game deficit is less than three, so this handicap is slightly more likely than not to hold.

• Cobolli's average hard-court game margin is -0.9.
• A +2.5 line wins if Cobolli does not lose the game count by three or more.
• Nakashima's recent Lyon margins were +5 and +4, which would beat this line.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Nakashima starts sets better on this surface and has carried that into Lyon.

• Nakashima has won 8 of 12 first sets in hard-court best-of-3.
• He won the first set against Medjedovic and Jacquet in Lyon.
• Cobolli has won only 3 of 9 first sets in the format.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10

The read

Both players have recent three-set matches and weaker second-set records, so a deciding set is more likely than not.

• Cobolli's hard-court best-of-3 matches average 2.56 sets; Nakashima's average 2.42.
• Five of Cobolli's nine and five of Nakashima's 12 format-matched matches went to a third set.
• Nakashima has played five sets in Lyon to Cobolli's two.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30

The read

Both players have stronger first-set than second-set records, and Cobolli has been the more reliable second-set player recently.

• Cobolli has won 4 of 9 second sets in hard-court best-of-3; Nakashima has won 5 of 12.
• Nakashima lost the second set in four of his last six completed matches.
• Cobolli won the second set in four of his last six completed matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Nakashima's serve is producing a high ace count, and the line sits close to the combined averages.

• Nakashima averages 11.1 aces per match on hard; Cobolli averages 6.3.
• Nakashima struck 27 aces against Medjedovic and 13 against Jacquet in Lyon.
• Combined season averages sit at 17.4, just below the line.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Cobolli's double-fault rate is the main reason over is slightly favoured.

• Cobolli averages 3.3 double faults per match on hard; Nakashima averages 1.5.
• The combined average is 4.8, just above the line.
• Nakashima had zero double faults in his 27-ace first-round win over Medjedovic.