Sho Shimabukuro #109Japan22 – 1Roman Safiullin #79Russia1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Safiullin has been the stronger server and the more reliable match-winner on hard courts recently, while Shimabukuro has lost three in a row without taking a set.

• Safiullin 9-6 on hard in his last 15, Shimabukuro 4-9
• First-serve points won: Safiullin 74.3%, Shimabukuro 65.2%
• Games won: Safiullin 55.2%, Shimabukuro 45.3%
• Shimabukuro's last three matches were straight-sets defeats

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets have been the shorter sets for both players, with very few tiebreaks in that slot.

• Shimabukuro set-two total games average 9.08
• Safiullin set-two total games average 8.79
• Only one tiebreak in 12 Shimabukuro second sets, one in 14 for Safiullin

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' opening sets have averaged above the line, helped by Safiullin's serving and Shimabukuro's competitiveness on return.

• Shimabukuro set-one total games average 9.92
• Safiullin set-one total games average 10.21
• Two of Shimabukuro's 12 and three of Safiullin's 14 opening sets went to tiebreaks

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches have clustered near the line, and the most common outcome for each has been a straight-sets decision.

• Shimabukuro setEvidence total games average 21.5
• Safiullin setEvidence total games average 21.8
• Safiullin has won 7 of 14 recent matches 2-0
• Shimabukuro has lost 6 of 12 recent matches 0-2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Safiullin's second-set numbers are his strongest part of the match, and he has rarely been behind after two sets.

• Safiullin won set two in 10 of 14 recent hard matches
• Shimabukuro won set two in 5 of 12
• Safiullin averages 5.43 games won in set two, Shimabukuro 4.33
• Safiullin's second-set games lost average is 3.36

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Safiullin starts sets better and holds serve more comfortably, which gives him the clearer route to the first set.

• Safiullin won set one in 8 of 14 recent hard matches
• Shimabukuro won set one in 4 of 12
• Safiullin averages 5.57 games won in set one, Shimabukuro 4.5
• Shimabukuro has lost his last three opening sets

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Two-set finishes have been the norm for both players on this surface, and a clear gap in serve strength favours a short match.

• Shimabukuro total sets average 2.25 across 12 hard matches
• Safiullin total sets average 2.29 across 14 hard matches
• Safiullin won 7 of 14 recent matches 2-0
• Shimabukuro lost 6 of 12 recent matches 0-2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Shimabukuro's weak service hold creates breaks rather than tiebreaks, which makes a tiebreak-free match the more common outcome.

• Shimabukuro had a tiebreak in 2 of 12 hard matches
• Safiullin had a tiebreak in 4 of 14 hard matches
• Shimabukuro won only 39.1% of break points in his last 13 matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Safiullin rarely double faults, and a two-set match would likely keep the combined total below the line.

• Shimabukuro 4.2 double faults per match on hard
• Safiullin 2.3 double faults per match
• Combined average close to the line
• Shimabukuro 46 double faults in 11 hard matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The combined ace rate sits right at the line, and a straight-sets match would trim the total.

• Shimabukuro 4.4 aces per match on hard
• Safiullin 7.7 aces per match
• Combined average slightly above 12 per full match
• Safiullin averages 7.7 aces over 15 matches