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Predictions graded

Roman Safiullin #79Russia2Ilya Ivashka #237Belarus1

Sets 6-1 · 6-7 · 6-4Sat 17 Oct 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedQ1I.hard

Predictions2–722%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRoman Safiullin · 158 places

Roman Safiullin

Russia

Reached a career-high No. 36 in January 2024. His 2025 season ended after the US Open because of injury; he returned from qualifying to reach the Wimbledon fourth round in July 2026.

Current ranking: #79
Peak ranking: #36 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Ilya Ivashka

Belarus

Ivashka reached career-high No. 40 in June 2022 and won the 2021 Winston-Salem ATP title. ATP lists hard as his favorite surface.

Current ranking: #237
Peak ranking: #40 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Oct 2026, 22:40 · Europe/Bucharest

Safiullin is the higher-ranked player and the more likely winner, but this first qualifying round is tighter than 79 versus 237 suggests: Ivashka has won 11 of his last 14 hard-court matches and 10 of 14 opening sets.

Safiullin's 1.18 to win, 1.29 for the opening set and 1.25 for the second set ask too much of him to take. The quoted prices that offer something are Ivashka's: 4.75 to win the match, 3.3 for the opening set and 3.5 for the second.

Context

Ivashka's last competitive action was the Jinan second round, so he takes a two-day, cross-border turnaround into this match rather than any acclimatisation at Almaty Arena. The timeout was for a bleeding finger, which matters more for grip, ball contact and service rhythm than for movement. He finished that match and there is no current report of an ongoing problem, so the practical concern is preparation and comfort rather than a confirmed restriction on his availability.
- A medical timeout was taken during the Jinan second round against Liam Draxl for a bleeding finger.
- Ivashka lost that match 6-4 0-6 6-4 to Liam Draxl.
- He won two Jinan qualifying rounds without dropping a set, over Beibit Zhukayev and Kaichi Uchida.
ReportedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 22:38 · Europe/Bucharest
Safiullin beat a top-10 opponent in Beijing and then won three Shanghai qualifying matches in straight sets before losing his first main-draw match to Francisco Cerundolo . That is a favourable, current sample on hard courts and it frames the ranking gap to Ivashka. The counterpoint is that it is a short burst, the Cerundolo defeat ended it immediately, and eight days without a match removes both fatigue and competitive rhythm.
- Safiullin won three Shanghai qualifying matches without dropping a set before losing to Francisco Cerundolo in the first main-draw round.
- He beat Flavio Cobolli in Beijing, having also lost to Andrey Rublev at the same event.
- His most recent match was the loss to Cerundolo.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 22:38 · Europe/Bucharest
Ivashka's first-set record is the strongest part of his recent hard-court sample.
Ten first sets from 14 is a clear pattern in a sample that runs to 15 October, two days before this tie. It matters here because Safiullin won only eight of his 14 opening sets in the same period. The counterweight is that Safiullin is ranked No. 79 and has been competing at main-tour level.
- Set 1 record across 14 hard-court matches (3 August–15 October 2026): 10 wins, 4 losses.
- Set 1 scoring average: 5.64 games won to 3.86 lost.
- The away hard-court sample excludes one retired match.
This is a qualifying-round tie, so both players are playing for entry into the Almaty Open and the ranking and prize money that follow, and the winner still needs a further qualifying result to reach the main draw. It sits third on Center Court on the tournament's opening day, after the Omarkhanov-Sakamoto and Walton-Zhukayev matches, and it is played indoors at Almaty Arena. The match therefore carries immediate qualification stakes rather than a main-draw appearance or a crowd occasion.
- Almaty Open Day 1, 17 October 2026, is qualifying, played on the center and first courts at Almaty Arena.
- Safiullin and Ivashka are listed third on Center Court, not before 3pm local.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 22:38 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Safiullin is the higher-ranked player, has been competing at main-tour level and holds clear serving and games-won advantages.
- Ranked 79 vs 237; beat ATP No. 7 Cobolli in Beijing
- Hard-court last 15: 9-6 with 55.1% games won and 73.2% first-serve points won
- Ivashka's 11-3 run came mostly against opponents ranked 234-503; he lost his latest to No. 219 Draxl
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRoman SafiullinEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Safiullin's recent matches have generally been short and most of both players' hard-court matches ended in straight sets.
- Safiullin's hard-court matches average 20.9 total games
- Five of Safiullin's last six matches finished at 22 games or fewer
- 68% of the combined hard-court matches ended in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined second-set averages are just under ten games and Safiullin often wins his second sets with room to spare.
- Safiullin's second sets average 8.79 games
- Ivashka's second sets average 9.64 games
- Safiullin's set2 average is 5.43 games won to 3.36 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets sit around ten games on average, making this line close to even.
- Safiullin's opening sets average 10.07 games
- Ivashka's opening sets average 9.5 games
- Only 4 of the combined 28 opening sets reached a tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent hard-court matches were decided in two sets, and Safiullin rarely drops a set when he wins.
- 68% of the combined 28 hard-court matches finished in straight sets
- Safiullin's scorelines: eight 2-0 wins against one 2-1
- Ivashka won six of his 11 wins in straight sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Safiullin has been dominant in second sets, winning 11 of 14, which supports him if the match reaches a second set.
- Won 11 of 14 second sets on hard courts
- Ivashka won 8 of 14 second sets
- Safiullin's set2 average is 5.43 games won to 3.36 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostRoman SafiullinEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Safiullin's stronger overall level and recent wins against higher-ranked opponents give him a slight edge in the opening set.
- Safiullin won 8 of 14 opening sets; Ivashka won 10 of 14
- Safiullin is ranked 79 against Ivashka's 237
- Safiullin beat No. 7 Cobolli in straight sets in his recent run
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRoman SafiullinEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The clear majority of both players' recent hard-court matches finished without a tiebreak.
- 6 of the combined 28 hard-court matches had a tiebreak
- Safiullin: 2 tiebreak matches in 14
- Ivashka: 4 tiebreak matches in 14
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance75%

Prediction history

Roman Safiullin: 13/15 recent winner projections matched

13 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Roman Safiullin matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Roman Safiullin15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#132Roman Safiullin3-2#54Botic Van De Zandschulp

BetBugsRoman Safiullin to win·55%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#132Roman Safiullin3-2#54Botic Van De Zandschulp

Roman Safiullin to win

55%probability

Roman Safiullin won

Matched

25 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#127Roman Safiullin3-2#197Jerome Kym

BetBugsRoman Safiullin to win·62%

Matched

25 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#127Roman Safiullin3-2#197Jerome Kym

Roman Safiullin to win

62%probability

Roman Safiullin won

Matched

24 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#127Roman Safiullin2-0#222Kimmer Coppejans

BetBugsRoman Safiullin to win·78%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#127Roman Safiullin2-0#222Kimmer Coppejans

Roman Safiullin to win

78%probability

Roman Safiullin won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#131Roman Safiullin2-0#205James Mccabe

BetBugsRoman Safiullin to win·65%

Matched

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#131Roman Safiullin2-0#205James Mccabe

Roman Safiullin to win

65%probability

Roman Safiullin won

Matched

16 Jun·Nottingham - Great Britain

#131Roman Safiullin2-0#143August Holmgren

BetBugsRoman Safiullin to win·65%

Matched

16 Jun 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#131Roman Safiullin2-0#143August Holmgren

Roman Safiullin to win

65%probability

Roman Safiullin won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-1 (2 meetings)

L6-4 6-2Roman Safiullin#79vIlya Ivashka#237Mar 8, 2023

W6-4 6-3 6-4Roman Safiullin#79vIlya Ivashka#237Feb 9, 2021

2 total meetings

Roman Safiullin

9W 6L

7-6(5) 6-3#20Francisco Cerundolo

7-5 6-3#85Rinky Hijikata

6-2 6-3#123Shintaro Mochizuki

6-3 6-0#184Alexis Galarneau

6-2 3-6 6-4#23Andrey Rublev

6-3 6-2#7Flavio Cobolli

7-5 6-4#5Daniil Medvedev

6-3 6-3#93Bu Yunchaokete

5-7 6-3 6-4#48Quentin Halys

6-2 6-0#303Fajing Sun

6-4 6-4 6-4#3Carlos Alcaraz

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3#269Hugo Grenier

6-4 6-3#34Hubert Hurkacz

6-3 6-4#142Stan Wawrinka

6-3 6-4#120Sebastian Ofner

Ilya Ivashka

12W 3L

6-4 0-6 6-4#219Liam Draxl

3-4 ret.#234Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-2 6-4#386Kaichi Uchida

6-0 6-4#503Beibit Zhukayev

6-4 3-6 7-6(7)#234Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-3 6-4#455Luca Castelnuovo

6-3 6-3#277Yi Zhou

6-4 4-6 6-2#185Bernard Tomic

6-3 6-3#297Yu Hsiou Hsu

7-6(5) 6-4#154Ilia Simakin

6-4 4-6 6-1#324Akira Santillan

3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#277Yi Zhou

7-6(4) 6-4#176Joel Schwaerzler

6-1 5-7 6-3#656Ergi Kirkin

6-4 6-1#811Oscar Weightman

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

RSRoman SafiullinSafiullin

Last 15

3–4

9 core stats · 2 even

Ilya IvashkaIvashkaII

Ilya Ivashka carries the stronger recent form — Roman Safiullin's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

1st Serve In63.9%—63.6%

1st Serve Won73.2%+2.9pp76.1%

2nd Serve Won54.9%+1.6pp53.3%

Aces / Match6.9+1.85.1

Double Faults / Match2.1—2.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.7%+2.9pp40.6%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.9%+2.1pp41.0%

Break Pts Saved70.5%+14.1pp56.4%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won52.4%+1.1pp53.5%

Serve · 2–1 · 2 even

63.9%1st Serve In—63.6%

73.2%1st Serve Won+2.9pp76.1%

54.9%2nd Serve Won+1.6pp53.3%

6.9Aces / Match+1.85.1

2.1Double Faults / Match—2.3

Return · 0–1

37.7%Return Pts Won+2.9pp40.6%

Pressure · 1–1

38.9%Break Pts Converted+2.1pp41.0%

70.5%Break Pts Saved+14.1pp56.4%

Points · 0–1

52.4%Total Pts Won+1.1pp53.5%