Hamad Medjedovic #78Serbia11 – 2Brandon Nakashima #19United States2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38

The read

Nakashima is higher ranked, has clearly better hard-court results and won the most recent meeting.

• Ranked No. 19 and 10-5 in his last 15 matches, all on hard.
• Won 53.3% of games and 57.9% of sets in that sample.
• First-serve points won 77.7%, second-serve points 54.1%, and 10.3 aces per match.
• Won the most recent head-to-head 7-6(5) 6-2 on indoor hard.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Nakashima has the better game margin and faces an opponent who has been outscored heavily on hard courts.

• Nakashima's recent hard margins are +15, +5, +3, -3, -7 and -7 games.
• He won by at least two games in three of those six matches.
• Medjedovic's recent hard margins are -6, +4, -9, -3 and -6 games.
• Medjedovic won only 40.7% of games on the current surface.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.10

The read

Nakashima's matches regularly run long, but Medjedovic's recent hard matches have been short.

• Nakashima's 12 hard best-of-three matches averaged 26.08 total games.
• Medjedovic's four format-matched hard matches averaged 20.25 total games.
• The two head-to-heads totalled 21 and 30 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Nakashima has won most of his recent hard first sets and holds the better first-set game margin.

• Nakashima won 8 of 12 first sets on hard.
• Medjedovic won one of four first sets in format-matched hard matches.
• Nakashima averages 5.83 first-set games won to 5.25 lost; Medjedovic averages 4.75 to 5.75.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Nakashima's recent hard matches frequently include a tiebreak, especially in the first set.

• Nakashima had a tiebreak in 8 of 12 hard best-of-three matches.
• Six of his 12 first sets and three of 12 second sets went to a tiebreak.
• Medjedovic had one tiebreak in four format-matched hard matches.
• The 2025 head-to-head first set was a tiebreak.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Medjedovic's high double-fault rate pushes the combined total above the line even with Nakashima's low rate.

• Medjedovic averaged 4.1 double faults per match overall and 4.8 on the current surface.
• Nakashima averaged 1.7 double faults per match in 15 hard matches.
• Combined recent averages sum to about 5.8, or about 6.5 using Medjedovic's current-surface rate.