United StatesFort Worth - USAFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Gavin Young #553United States2Duncan Chan #483Canada1

Sets 4-6 · 6-1 · 6-4Mon 19 Oct 2026, 16:00 Predictions gradedQ3Hard

Predictions5–456%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDuncan Chan · 70 places

Gavin Young

United States

Career-high ranking No. 551, recorded in July 2026. Public profile data lists hard as his preferred surface; reliable hand and height data were not found.

Current ranking: #553
Peak ranking: #551 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Duncan Chan

Canada

Canadian right-hander, born 29 July 2005. Public player databases list a singles career-high of No. 601 in July 2026 and show his recorded 2026 matches on hard courts.

Current ranking: #483
Peak ranking: #601 · 2026
Current age: 21
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Oct 2026, 15:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Both men needed three sets on 18 October to reach the last round of Fort Worth qualifying, where the only prize is a main-draw place.

Chan sits 70 ranking places higher and is narrowly the likelier match winner, but Young has been the steadier starter, so a Young first set and a long afternoon both make sense. Young at 2.2 for the first set and 2.2 for the second are the two prices worth backing; Chan at 1.6 in either set is not.

Context

Trotter was the fourth seed in this qualifying draw, which makes him the best-ranked opponent Young has beaten on the North American hard-court swing, and Young absorbed a 1-6 first set before taking the next two. The recovery matters because his previous event ended in a 6-3 6-4 loss on 14 October to Enzo Kohlmann De Freitas, ranked around No. 900, leaving his level unproven at the start of the week. The limitation is scale and timing: the win came one day before this final and does not show whether Young can hold that level across a second three-setter in as many days, and the main-draw place is still unearned.
- Young lost the first set 1-6 before taking the next two sets 6-4 6-3 .
- Trotter, ranked No. 464, was seeded fourth in the Fort Worth qualifying draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 15:06 · Europe/Bucharest
Chan's first-set record leaves him chasing the match more often than not.
Chan has started slowly through his hard-court run: four first sets won in 14, against an average of 5.71 games lost per opening set. Four of those sets needed a tiebreak, so he is losing tight ones rather than being blown away. Against a steadier Young starter, the first set is the clearest point of separation.
- Set 1 record of 4-10 across 14 hard-court matches, 9 July to 18 October 2026.
- Four set-1 tiebreaks in those same 14 matches.
- Averages 5.71 games lost per opening set.
Chan's recent singles volume is thin: two matches in Columbus in late September plus this week's opener, after a gap stretching back to the National Bank Open. Both of those qualifying wins went the distance, the Columbus one lasting exactly three hours, so he has repeatedly been extended without playing much, which is the shape a qualifying final often takes. The counterpoint is opposition quality: Petak was a wildcard ranked outside the top 1,100 and Pascual Ferra sits near No. 650, so neither tested Chan against a player anywhere near his own ranking.
- Chan won 7-6(4) 2-6 6-3 in the first qualifying round in Fort Worth on 18 October.
- His Columbus qualifying win over Denis Petak lasted exactly three hours and was his first singles match since the National Bank Open in Montreal.
- Petak was a wildcard ranked outside the top 1,100; Pascual Ferra sits near No. 650.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 15:06 · Europe/Bucharest
Neither man is ranked inside the top 470, so this qualifying final is the only route into the Fort Worth main draw and the difference between a singles week and none. The noon start on Court V1 falls on the opening day of a main draw that runs to 25 October, so the winner steps straight into a live field without a recovery day, while the loser leaves with no singles tennis at all. The limitation is that the reward is structural rather than a form signal: the main-draw opponent is unknown until the qualifying places are filled, so nothing here says how either player would fare in it.
- The qualifying final is scheduled for 12:00 on Court V1 .
- Fort Worth is a Challenger 75 whose main draw runs 19-25 October.
- Chan is the eighth seed in qualifying; Young is unseeded.
ConfirmedSources checked 19 Oct 2026, 15:06 · Europe/BucharestTennis Temple Fort Worth match pageen.tennistemple.com · 19 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chan's higher ranking and habit of winning deciding sets give him a narrow overall edge.
- 14 hard-court matches: 7-7
- Set 1 record 4-10
- Set 2 record 7-7
- Most recent win 2-1 over Roger Pascual Ferra (No. 652)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDuncan ChanEstimated chance52%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have averaged close to ten games, with Chan often going long.
- Young set 1 averages 9.73 total games
- Chan set 1 averages 10.07 total games
- Chan has four set-1 tiebreaks
- Combined set-1 tiebreaks are five in 29 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chan's shorter second sets and the low tiebreak count lean under.
- Young set 2 averages 9.87 total games
- Chan set 2 averages 9.07 total games
- Combined set-2 average is about 9.47 games
- Only two set-2 tiebreaks in 29 matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match has usually carried enough games to threaten the line, with both players averaging near it.
- Young averages 24.13 total games in 15 hard matches
- Chan averages 24.5 total games in 14 hard matches
- Young's total sets average is 2.4
- Chan's total sets average is 2.5
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 24.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Young has been more competitive in opening sets than Chan across the hard-court samples.
- Young set 1 record 7-8 over 15 hard matches
- Chan set 1 record 4-10 over 14 hard matches
- Chan averages 5.71 games lost in set 1
- Chan has four set-1 tiebreaks
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostGavin YoungEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set finishes are slightly more common in the samples, especially in Young's wins and Chan's losses.
- Young finished in straight sets in 9 of 15 hard matches
- Chan finished in straight sets in 7 of 14 hard matches
- Combined 16 of 29 hard matches ended in two sets
- Young has five 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Young has the better second-set record and a slightly better games margin.
- Young set 2 record 9-6 over 15 hard matches
- Chan set 2 record 7-7 over 14 hard matches
- Young averages 5.0 games won in set 2
- Chan averages 4.43 games won in set 2
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonGavin YoungEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Only about a third of their hard-court matches had a tiebreak.
- Young had a tiebreak in 4 of 15 hard matches
- Chan had a tiebreak in 6 of 14 hard matches
- Combined 10 of 29 matches had a tiebreak
- Set 1 and set 2 produced seven tiebreaks across 29 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance58%

Previous match context available

Gavin Young

7W 8L

1-6 6-4 6-3#464James Kent Trotter

6-3 6-4#900Enzo Kohlmann De Freitas

6-2 6-2#350Edward Winter

6-2 6-4—William Manning

7-5 6-3#161Soon-Woo Kwon

6-3 3-6 7-5#728Jack Anthrop

7-6(5) 6-2—Cooper Woestendick

5-7 7-5 6-3#413Sebastian Gorzny

6-3 6-4—Richard Biagiotti

7-5 6-3#498Yassine Dlimi

6-1 4-6 7-6(6)#636Aidan Kim

4-6 6-4 7-5#340Mitchell Krueger

6-3 7-5—William Manning

6-3 7-6(4)#874Luca Pow

5-7 6-2 7-6(5)#223Jeff Wolf

Duncan Chan

8W 7L

7-6(4) 2-6 6-3#652Roger Pascual Ferra

6-2 6-4#212Colton Smith

6-3 6-2#776Keaton Hance

6-7(11) 6-3 7-6(4)—Denis Petak

6-3 6-2#177Taro Daniel

6-3 1-6 7-6(3)#54Thiago Agustin Tirante

2-6 7-5 6-3#89Hugo Gaston

6-4 6-1#112Dane Sweeny

6-2 2-6 6-4#123Shintaro Mochizuki

7-6(5) 4-6 7-5#259James McCabe

3-6 7-6(2) 6-3#472Cesar Bouchelaghem

6-3 6-4#448Alafia Ayeni

6-4 6-2#315Daniel Milavsky

7-6(5) 6-3#362Timo Legout

2-6 6-4 3-0 ret.—Unknown Player

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GYGavin YoungYoung

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Duncan ChanChanDC

Gavin Young carries the stronger recent form — Duncan Chan's route runs through return.

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

1st Serve In66.7%+6.3pp60.4%

1st Serve Won67.6%—67.8%

2nd Serve Won50.5%+6.2pp44.3%

Aces / Match5.5+1.73.8

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.51.8 fewer4.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.8%+3.7pp40.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted38.7%+2.7pp41.4%

Break Pts Saved58.5%+4.5pp54.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won49.2%—49.5%

Serve · 4–0 · 1 even

66.7%1st Serve In+6.3pp60.4%

67.6%1st Serve Won—67.8%

50.5%2nd Serve Won+6.2pp44.3%

5.5Aces / Match+1.73.8

2.5Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.8 fewer4.3

Return · 0–1

36.8%Return Pts Won+3.7pp40.5%

Pressure · 1–1

38.7%Break Pts Converted+2.7pp41.4%

58.5%Break Pts Saved+4.5pp54.0%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

49.2%Total Pts Won—49.5%