United StatesFort Worth - USAFinished

Predictions graded

James Kent Trotter #464Japan1Gavin Young #553United States2

Sets 6-1 · 4-6 · 3-6Sun 18 Oct 2026, 18:45 Predictions gradedQ1Hard

Predictions3–443%

Edges1–150%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJames Kent Trotter · 89 places

James Kent Trotter

Japan

Trotter, 27, is right-handed and 183 cm. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 170 on 21 April 2025.

Current ranking: #464
Peak ranking: #170 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Gavin Young

United States

Career-high ranking No. 551, recorded in July 2026. Public profile data lists hard as his preferred surface; reliable hand and height data were not found.

Current ranking: #553
Peak ranking: #551 · 2026
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: —
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:41 · Europe/Bucharest

Two players with no shared history and only 89 ranking places between them open the Fort Worth qualifying; Trotter's 9-5 hard-court record makes him the likelier winner, but he has lost three of his last four and Young's serve numbers are the more substantial.

Trotter to win at 1.73 and to lead after the first set at 1.75 both ask more than his form justifies, and Young at 2.00 is no better. No quoted price offers anything.

Context

Trotter was a top-200 player in April 2025 and is now ranked No. 464, which is why a player of that recent level is starting in the qualifying draw of a Challenger 75 rather than the main draw. The gap of about 294 places means he meets opponents at a ranking tier well below the one he was operating at during that 2025 run. Some of the fall reflects points from that stretch expiring rather than a like-for-like collapse in level, so the ranking is context for where he stands rather than a direct measure of current form.
- Trotter's career-high singles ranking of No. 170 was set on 21 April 2025.
- He is currently ranked No. 464, which places him in Challenger qualifying rather than the main draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:39 · Europe/BucharestTennis Majors player profilewww.tennismajors.com · 18 Oct 2026Tennis Bear player pagewww.tennisbear.net · 18 Oct 2026
Young is competing at essentially his highest career ranking, so this qualifying draw is where his current level sits rather than a step down from a higher tier. That contrasts with an opponent who is 294 places below a career high set in 2025, giving the ranking comparison a trajectory dimension that a raw 464-versus-553 reading does not capture. The limitation is scale: a career-high of No. 551 means a short record at Challenger main-draw level, so ranking-based expectations for him rest on a thin base.
- Young's career-high singles ranking of No. 551 was recorded on 27 July 2026.
- He is currently ranked No. 553, two places below that mark.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Oct 2026, 15:39 · Europe/BucharestGavin Young ranking and titles profilewww.stevegtennis.com · 18 Oct 2026
Young is the only one of the two with recorded serve data in this window.
Young's first-serve numbers are the most substantial part of either player's record here and give him a route to hold against an opponent with no recorded serve data. The sample is 15 matches and he lost eight of them, so it supports competitiveness rather than a result.
- 15 completed hard-court matches, 20 June to 14 October 2026: 67.4% first serves in (760 of 1128), 67.9% first-serve points won (516 of 760), 5.5 aces per match (82 total).
- Same 15-match sample: 36.8% of return points won (420 of 1142) and 49.4% of total points won (1122 of 2270), with an average match length of 123.5 minutes.
Trotter's completed matches in the window averaged 2.14 sets.
Trotter's completed hard-court matches averaged 2.14 sets, so a short match is the likeliest shape of this opener. Four of the 14 were straight-set defeats, which tempers any reading of the pattern as control.
- 14 completed hard-court matches, 20 July to 29 September 2026, one retirement excluded: eight 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses, one 2-1 win, one 1-2 loss; average 2.14 sets.
- Set games in the same 14 matches: 5.0 won and 4.14 lost in set one; 4.79 won and 3.93 lost in set two.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

James Kent Trotter

1.73fair 1.75

BetBugs 57% · Market 57.8%

−0.8ppshort

Trotter's higher ranking, seeding and better hard-court record make him the more likely winner.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

James Kent Trotter

1.75fair 1.79

BetBugs 56% · Market 57.1%

−1.1ppshort

Trotter's stronger first-set record and higher ranking make him the more likely early leader.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Trotter's higher ranking, seeding and better hard-court record make him the more likely winner.
- Trotter is ranked 464, 89 places above Young at 553, and is the fourth qualifying seed.
- Trotter is 9-5 in 14 hard-court matches; Young is 7-8 in 15.
- Trotter won set1 and set2 in 9 of 14 hard-court matches.
- The players have no previous meeting.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJames Kent TrotterEstimated chance57%

Games1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Young's longer matches and three-set tendency make a higher game count slightly more likely than not.
- Trotter's matches average 19.1 total games; Young's average 24.5.
- Young has six three-set matches in 15; Trotter has two in 14.
- Young's average match duration is 123.5 minutes.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Trotter's matches and a majority of Young's have finished in two sets.
- Trotter has 12 two-set matches in 14; Young has nine in 15.
- Trotter's matches average 2.14 sets; Young's average 2.40.
- Eight of 29 combined sample matches went to a deciding set.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.75
The read
Trotter's stronger first-set record and higher ranking make him the more likely early leader.
- Trotter won set1 in 9 of 14 hard-court matches; Young won it in 7 of 15.
- Trotter's set1 games won average is 5.0; Young's is 4.73.
- Trotter is ranked 89 places above Young.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJames Kent TrotterEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Trotter's set2 record is strong, but Young's second-set numbers make this closer than the first set.
- Trotter won set2 in 9 of 14 hard-court matches; Young won it in 9 of 15.
- Trotter's set2 games won average is 4.79; Young's is 5.0.
- Young's set2 record is stronger than his set1 record.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostJames Kent TrotterEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most hard-court matches for both players finished without a tiebreak.
- Trotter had a tiebreak in 2 of 14 hard-court matches; Young in 5 of 15.
- Seven of the 29 combined sample matches had a tiebreak.
- Young has five tiebreak matches in 15, the higher count of the two.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance73%

James Kent Trotter

9W 6L

6-3 6-2#290Stefan Kozlov

6-3 6-3#527Li Tu

7-5 7-6(4)—Alexander Okonkwo

6-2 6-3#424Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-4 6-1#147Federico Cina

6-3 6-2#697Thomas Fancutt

6-1 6-0—Ziyu Liu

6-7(4) 6-3 4-0 ret.#424Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

6-4 7-5#297Yu Hsiou Hsu

6-3 6-4#420Jie Cui

3-6 6-1 6-3#344Tyler Zink

6-3 6-4#247Hayato Matsuoka

6-7(4) 6-3 6-3—Mikael Arseneault

6-1 6-2#146Clement Chidekh

6-1 6-0#657Kokoro Isomura

Gavin Young

7W 8L

6-3 6-4#900Enzo Kohlmann De Freitas

6-2 6-2#350Edward Winter

6-2 6-4—William Manning

7-5 6-3#161Soon-Woo Kwon

6-3 3-6 7-5#728Jack Anthrop

7-6(5) 6-2—Cooper Woestendick

5-7 7-5 6-3#413Sebastian Gorzny

6-3 6-4—Richard Biagiotti

7-5 6-3#498Yassine Dlimi

6-1 4-6 7-6(6)#636Aidan Kim

4-6 6-4 7-5#340Mitchell Krueger

6-3 7-5—William Manning

6-3 7-6(4)#874Luca Pow

5-7 6-2 7-6(5)#223Jeff Wolf

3-6 6-3 7-6(4)#466Andrew Fenty

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JTJames Kent TrotterTrotter

Last 15

5–2

9 core stats · 2 even

Gavin YoungYoungGY

James Kent Trotter carries the stronger recent form — Gavin Young's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In58.7%+8.7pp67.4%

1st Serve Won72.6%+4.7pp67.9%

2nd Serve Won54.5%+4.0pp50.5%

Aces / Match5.7—5.5

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/153.11.0 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won38.8%+2.0pp36.8%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted42.7%+3.3pp39.4%

Break Pts Saved59.2%—59.6%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.9%+2.5pp49.4%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

58.7%1st Serve In+8.7pp67.4%

72.6%1st Serve Won+4.7pp67.9%

54.5%2nd Serve Won+4.0pp50.5%

5.7Aces / Match—5.5

3.1Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/151.0 fewer2.1

Return · 1–0

38.8%Return Pts Won+2.0pp36.8%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

42.7%Break Pts Converted+3.3pp39.4%

59.2%Break Pts Saved—59.6%

Points · 1–0

51.9%Total Pts Won+2.5pp49.4%