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Predictions graded

Martin Landaluce #73Spain2Liam Draxl #219Canada0

Sets 7-6 · 6-3Sat 17 Oct 2026, 10:15 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions2–722%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMartin Landaluce · 146 places

Martin Landaluce

Spain

Reached career-high No. 55 on 15 June 2026; ATP lists grass as his favourite surface. He became the first player born in 2006 or later to reach an ATP Masters 1000 quarter-final at Miami in March 2026.

Current ranking: #73
Peak ranking: #55 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Liam Draxl

Canada

Canadian right-hander, aged 24, whose ITF profile lists hard as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 113 on 28 July 2025.

Current ranking: #219
Peak ranking: #113 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Oct 2026, 15:40 · Europe/Bucharest

A No. 5 seed and a 219th-ranked qualifier meet in the Jinan semifinal for a place in the final.

Draxl has the stronger hard-court and first-set record, so he is the more likely winner, though Landaluce's ranking and Draxl's heavy week plus a quarterfinal medical timeout leave the match open. Two quoted prices hold up: Draxl to win the match at 2.4 and Draxl to win the first set at 2.2.

Context

A mid-match medical timeout in the third set, taken the day before the semifinal, is a live availability question until he takes the court. He finished and won the match, and nothing has been signalled about withdrawing from the last four, so the severity is unknown. If the issue limits his movement or serving, it would change how the workload and the narrow margins of his week should be read.
- A medical timeout was called for Draxl with Machac leading 3-2 in the third set, after Draxl had been kneeling on court.
- Draxl recovered to win the quarterfinal 6-4 3-6 6-4 and reach the semifinals.
To watchSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 15:38 · Europe/Bucharest
A 219th-ranked qualifier eliminating two top-100 opponents on hard court gives Draxl a form case beyond his ranking, and closing out a deciding set against Machac shows he can finish against a higher-profile opponent. The cost is workload: qualifying plus three main-draw matches is five matches in seven days, two of them three-setters, while Landaluce has played three. Whether that accumulated time on court becomes a factor is the main uncertainty around Draxl's run.
- Draxl came through qualifying and knocked out James Duckworth (64th) and Tomas Machac (75th) to reach the semifinals.
- His week includes a 5-7 7-6(4) 6-4 first-round match and a 6-4 3-6 6-4 quarterfinal.
ReportedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 15:38 · Europe/BucharestTennisTemple match pageen.tennistemple.com · 16 Oct 2026
Landaluce, seeded fifth, needed three sets to get past an alternate ranked outside the top 200, losing the opening set before winning 11 of the last 16 games. The comeback kept him on course for the final, but it also showed a set can slip away early in a match. Against a qualifier who has beaten two top-100 players this week, that slow start is the clearest risk for him to manage.
- Landaluce [5] recovered from a set down to beat Keegan Smith [Alt.] 3-6 6-2 6-3 and advanced to face Draxl [Q] for a place in the final.
- Landaluce's earlier Jinan wins were 6-3 6-3 over Ilia Simakin and 6-4 7-5 over Jie Cui.
ReportedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 15:38 · Europe/BucharestTennisTemple match pageen.tennistemple.com · 16 Oct 2026
Draxl's first-set record is the clearest split in the recent hard-court record: he has taken 12 of 15 opening sets, while Landaluce has won five of 11. The sample is limited to 15 and 11 matches, so it is a trend rather than a guarantee, but it is the strongest evidence that Draxl can start the better of the two.
- Between 28 July and 16 October 2026, Draxl won 12 of 15 first sets in completed hard-court matches, losing three.
- He averaged 5.8 first-set games won and 4.27 lost, with one first-set tiebreak in 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Draxl has the stronger serve, better point and game percentages and more wins against higher-ranked opponents on this surface recently.
- Draxl hard-court record 10-5 vs Landaluce 5-7 on the same surface
- Draxl total points won 51.6% vs Landaluce 48.3%
- Draxl holds aces 6.7 to 4.9 per match and double faults 2.0 to 5.9
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLiam DraxlEstimated chance56%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been longer than first sets for both players, especially Landaluce.
- Landaluce set2 total games average 10.82
- Draxl set2 total games average 9.87
- Landaluce set2 tiebreaks 3 in 11 matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First-set game averages for both players sit just above the line.
- Landaluce set1 total games average 9.73
- Draxl set1 total games average 10.07
- Draxl set1 games lost average 4.27
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The slight edge from both players' average match length sits just below the line.
- Landaluce total games average 24.91
- Draxl total games average 25.47
- Draxl has 7 two-set matches in his last 15
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 25.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Draxl has started matches strongly on this surface while Landaluce has a losing first-set record.
- Draxl set1 record 12-3 on hard, Landaluce 5-6
- Draxl set1 games won average 5.8 vs lost 4.27
- Draxl set1 tiebreaks only 1 in 15 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLiam DraxlEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been close to even for both players, with Draxl holding only a small overall advantage.
- Draxl set2 record 8-7 on hard
- Landaluce set2 record 6-5 on hard
- Landaluce set2 games won average 5.55 vs lost 5.27
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostLiam DraxlEstimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have gone to a deciding set in about half of their recent matches.
- Draxl total sets average 2.53
- Landaluce total sets average 2.45
- Draxl has 8 three-set matches in his last 15
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent matches for both players have finished without a tiebreak.
- Landaluce 8 of 11 matches without a tiebreak
- Draxl 11 of 15 matches without a tiebreak
- Combined tiebreak rate about 27%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Landaluce's frequent double faults push the combined match total above the line.
- Landaluce 5.9 double faults per match
- Draxl 2.0 double faults per match
- Combined average about 7.9 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 7.5Estimated chance54%

Previous match context available

Martin Landaluce

6W 9L

3-6 6-2 6-3#202Keegan Smith

6-4 7-5#420Jie Cui

6-3 6-3#154Ilia Simakin

6-4 6-4#59Jan-Lennard Struff

6-1 6-7(9) 7-6(2)#90Marco Trungelliti

6-2 6-3#252Matias Soto

6-0 6-4#148Dusan Lajovic

4-6 6-2 4-6 7-5 6-3#96Jacob Fearnley

6-4 6-7(3) 6-1#86Mattia Bellucci

7-6(5) 7-6(4)#54Thiago Agustin Tirante

6-4 4-6 6-4#38Matteo Arnaldi

6-3 7-5#158Jack Draper

4-6 6-4 6-3#119Nicolas Mejia

6-4 6-3#94Michael Zheng

6-4 6-3 6-3#161Soon-Woo Kwon

Liam Draxl

10W 5L

6-4 3-6 6-4#75Tomas Machac

6-4 0-6 6-4#237Ilya Ivashka

6-4 6-4#64James Duckworth

5-7 7-6(4) 6-4#422Omar Jasika

6-1 6-0—Yutong Du

5-7 7-5 6-4#124Nikoloz Basilashvili

7-5 6-4#89Hugo Gaston

7-6(7) 2-6 6-4#228Henry Searle

6-4 6-4#401Jack Kennedy

6-2 7-5#33Arthur Rinderknech

4-6 7-5 7-6(7)#155Tristan Schoolkate

6-4 6-2#729Andrew Johnson

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4#119Nicolas Mejia

6-2 6-3#203Andres Andrade

3-6 6-4 6-4#44Daniel Merida Aguilar

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MLMartin LandaluceLandaluce

Last 15

1–8

9 core stats · 0 even

Liam DraxlDraxlLD

Liam Draxl carries the stronger recent form — Martin Landaluce's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In14/15 · 14/1561.0%+4.6pp65.6%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/1566.9%+2.4pp69.3%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/1546.3%+3.4pp49.7%

Aces / Match14/15 · 14/154.9+1.86.7

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/155.93.9 fewer2.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/1538.0%+2.8pp40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/1539.3%+11.6pp50.9%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/1560.7%+0.9pp59.8%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/1548.3%+3.3pp51.6%

Serve · 0–5

61.0%1st Serve In14/15 · 14/15+4.6pp65.6%

66.9%1st Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+2.4pp69.3%

46.3%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 14/15+3.4pp49.7%

4.9Aces / Match14/15 · 14/15+1.86.7

5.9Double Faults / Match14/15 · 14/153.9 fewer2.0

Return · 0–1

38.0%Return Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+2.8pp40.8%

Pressure · 1–1

39.3%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 14/15+11.6pp50.9%

60.7%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 14/15+0.9pp59.8%

Points · 0–1

48.3%Total Pts Won14/15 · 14/15+3.3pp51.6%