BoliviaSanta Cruz - BoliviaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Thiago Seyboth Wild #136Brazil2Nicolas Kicker #351Argentina0

Sets 6-1 · 6-1Fri 16 Oct 2026, 22:30 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions9–0100%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThiago Seyboth Wild · 215 places

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Brazil

Brazilian right-hander who reached a career-high No. 58 in May 2024. Official ITF data lists clay and hard courts as his preferred surfaces.

Current ranking: #136
Peak ranking: #58 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Nicolas Kicker

Argentina

Kicker reached a career-high No. 78 on 12 June 2017. ATP lists hard courts as his favourite surface; his supplied ranking is No. 365.

Current ranking: #351
Peak ranking: #78 · 2017
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Oct 2026, 15:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Third seed Thiago Seyboth Wild meets Nicolas Kicker in the Santa Cruz quarter-final, 215 ranking places apart on clay.

Seyboth Wild, 13-1 in his last 14 completed clay matches, is the likely winner, but his prices offer little: 1.13 to win, 1.20 for each of the first two sets and 1.44 for a 2-0 win. Kicker to take the first set at 4.0, the second at 4.1 and the match at 5.25 are the selections rated as potential value.

Context

A run to the Antofagasta final means Seyboth Wild played a deep, six-match clay week immediately before Santa Cruz, and he has added two more straight-set wins here. That accumulation of recent match time is the clearest physical variable around this quarterfinal. The counterweight is that neither Santa Cruz win went beyond two sets, so the schedule has not yet visibly cost him.
- Reached the Antofagasta Challenger 75 final, losing 7-6(2) 1-6 6-2 to Joao Lucas Reis da Silva.
- The final was played on a full Cancha Central at the AutoClub Antofagasta.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 15:10 · Europe/Bucharest
An eighth quarterfinal of the season on the surface shows the Santa Cruz run extends an established clay sequence rather than a single hot week. Two straight-set wins also mean Seyboth Wild has not been stretched in Bolivia. Kicker, though ranked far lower, beat a top-200 seed in the previous round, so the quality of opposition in this match is higher than in either of Seyboth Wild's wins.
- Beat Mateus Alves 6-3 7-6(3) in the first round and Carlos Maria Zarate 6-2 6-2 in the second round.
- His Santa Cruz quarterfinal is his eighth quarterfinal of the 2026 season.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 15:10 · Europe/Bucharest
A straight-sets win over a top-200 seed is the best result of Kicker's week and shows he can still hold a high level on clay despite sitting at No. 351. It reverses a 6-4 6-4 loss to the same opponent in September, which is a more concrete signal than his ranking alone. The open question is whether he can repeat that level against a third seed rather than another mid-ranked Argentine.
- Beat seventh seed Facundo Mena 7-6(4) 6-4 in the second round.
- The Santa Cruz quarterfinal is his sixth of the 2026 season.
ConfirmedSources checked 16 Oct 2026, 15:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Its sample is 14 completed clay matches from 1 September to 15 October 2026, with one retirement excluded, and 12 of the 14 finished 2-0. He also took the opening set 13 times, averaging 6.1 games to 3.3. Kicker, though, beat a top-200 seed in the previous round, a tougher opponent than either of Seyboth Wild's Santa Cruz wins.
- Set evidence: 14 completed clay matches tracked from 1 September to 15 October 2026, record 13-1, with 12 wins in straight sets.
- Set-one games averaged 6.14 won to 3.29 lost across those 14 matches.
- One retirement excluded from the sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Seyboth Wild is far higher ranked, is the third seed, and has won 13 of his last 14 clay matches against a field that includes several top-250 opponents.
- ATP No. 136 (Seyboth Wild) vs No. 351 (Kicker)
- Seyboth Wild 13-1 on clay across his last 14 completed matches
- 12 of those 14 wins came in straight sets
- Won the only head-to-head 6-4 3-6 6-4 in 2022
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonThiago Seyboth WildEstimated chance71%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set wins with several one-sided sets have kept recent totals around or under the line.
- Seyboth Wild clay average 20.0 games, Kicker 20.6 games
- Seyboth Wild won 12 of 14 recent clay matches without dropping a set
- Set-one games average 9.4 for both players
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets have averaged under ten games and Kicker has had no second-set tiebreaks recently.
- Seyboth Wild set-two games average 9.43
- Kicker set-two games average 9.15
- Kicker has not played a second-set tiebreak in 13 recent matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets have averaged just under the line, helped by one-sided sets from Seyboth Wild.
- Seyboth Wild set-one games average 9.43
- Kicker set-one games average 9.38
- Seyboth Wild has lost only one opening set in 14
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The match is likely to finish in straight sets if Seyboth Wild's recent clay form carries over.
- 12 of Seyboth Wild's last 14 clay matches ended 2-0
- Only two of his 14 recent matches went to a third set
- Kicker has been taken to a decider in four of 13
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Seyboth Wild has started almost every recent clay match by taking the first set, often by a clear margin.
- Seyboth Wild has won the opening set in 13 of 14 recent clay matches
- His set-one games average is 6.1 won to 3.3 lost
- Kicker has won the first set in 7 of 13 recent matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonThiago Seyboth WildEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Seyboth Wild has taken the second set in nearly every recent clay match and holds a higher second-set win rate than his opponent.
- Seyboth Wild has won the second set in 13 of 14 recent clay matches
- His set-two games average is 6.0 won to 3.4 lost
- Kicker has won set two in 9 of 13
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonThiago Seyboth WildEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.44
The read
Seyboth Wild has routinely won recent clay matches without dropping a set and holds a clear ranking edge.
- 12 of Seyboth Wild's last 14 clay wins were 2-0
- He lost only one match in that sample
- Seyboth Wild's set-one and set-two records are both 13-1
BetBugs · Set BettingwonThiago Seyboth Wild 2-0Estimated chance51%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent clay matches for both players have usually been decided without a tiebreak.
- Only three of Seyboth Wild's last 14 clay matches had a tiebreak
- Only one of Kicker's last 13 had a tiebreak
- Kicker has no second-set tiebreaks in 13 matches
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance63%

Prediction history

Thiago Seyboth Wild: 12/15 recent winner projections matched

12 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Thiago Seyboth Wild matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Thiago Seyboth Wild15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#508Jan Kumstat2-0#206Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·72%

Missed

29 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#508Jan Kumstat2-0#206Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

72%probability

Jan Kumstat won

Missed

28 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#404Andrej Martin0-2#206Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·72%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#404Andrej Martin0-2#206Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

72%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

26 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#297Marc Andrea Huesler0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·62%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#297Marc Andrea Huesler0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

62%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

25 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#276Thiago Seyboth Wild2-0#556Dylan Dietrich

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·62%

Matched

25 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#276Thiago Seyboth Wild2-0#556Dylan Dietrich

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

62%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

24 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#294Philip Henning0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·62%

Matched

24 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#294Philip Henning0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

62%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 3-6 6-4Thiago Seyboth Wild#136vNicolas Kicker#351Feb 21, 2022

1 total meetings

Thiago Seyboth Wild

13W 2L

6-2 6-2#352Carlos Maria Zarate

6-3 7-6(3)#385Mateus Alves

7-6(2) 1-6 6-2#230Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

6-4 6-1#206Lautaro Midon

6-1 6-4#453Felipe Meligeni Alves

6-1 6-2#407Murkel Dellien

6-3 6-4#252Matias Soto

6-4 6-2#130Pedro Martinez Portero

7-5 4-6 6-2#174Matej Dodig

6-1 7-6(6)#200Juan Pablo Varillas

7-5 6-3#390Massimo Giunta

6-3 6-4#516Gianmarco Ferrari

4-6 7-6(4) 4-3 ret.#200Juan Pablo Varillas

6-4 6-3#355Norbert Gombos

6-3 6-4#257Martin Krumich

Nicolas Kicker

10W 5L

7-6(4) 6-4#197Facundo Mena

6-3 6-2#622Thiago Cigarran

6-3 3-0 ret.#622Thiago Cigarran

6-3 6-4—Milledge Cossu

6-4 6-4#197Facundo Mena

4-6 7-5 6-0#128Hugo Dellien

1-6 6-2 6-0#790Tomas Martinez

6-2 6-2#217Maxim Mrva

6-4 4-6 6-2#163Marco Cecchinato

6-4 6-1#229Francesco Passaro

6-4 6-4#328Thomas Faurel

0-6 6-4 4-0 ret.#173Stefano Travaglia

6-4 6-2#217Maxim Mrva

6-2 6-2—Yannik Weissmann

6-2 4-6 6-1#262Frederico Ferreira Silva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TWThiago Seyboth WildWild

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Nicolas KickerKickerNK

Thiago Seyboth Wild carries the stronger recent form — Nicolas Kicker's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

1st Serve In59.3%+8.6pp67.9%

1st Serve Won80.8%+16.9pp63.9%

2nd Serve Won58.0%+6.8pp51.2%

Aces / Match7.1+5.51.6

Double Faults / Match2.7—2.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.1%+2.6pp43.7%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted39.3%+12.6pp51.9%

Break Pts Saved62.2%+11.7pp50.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won55.7%+4.2pp51.5%

Serve · 3–1 · 1 even

59.3%1st Serve In+8.6pp67.9%

80.8%1st Serve Won+16.9pp63.9%

58.0%2nd Serve Won+6.8pp51.2%

7.1Aces / Match+5.51.6

2.7Double Faults / Match—2.5

Return · 0–1

41.1%Return Pts Won+2.6pp43.7%

Pressure · 1–1

39.3%Break Pts Converted+12.6pp51.9%

62.2%Break Pts Saved+11.7pp50.5%

Points · 1–0

55.7%Total Pts Won+4.2pp51.5%

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Nicolas Kicker

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Nicolas Kicker

Nicolas Kicker

Nicolas Kicker

Thiago Seyboth Wild 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Nicolas Kicker

Stat Battle