CzechiaLiberec - Czech RepublicFinished

Predictions graded

Jan Kumstat #508Czechia2Thiago Seyboth Wild #206Brazil0

Sets 6-4 · 6-2Wed 29 Jul 2026, 09:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions1–614%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThiago Seyboth Wild · 302 places

Jan Kumstat

Czechia

Reached a career-high No. 508 on 27 July 2026 at age 19. The ITF lists hard as his preferred surface; he is a 196 cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #508
Peak ranking: #508 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Brazil

Reached a career-high No. 58 on 20 May 2024; his supplied current ranking is No. 206. Clay is his strongest recorded surface, and he is a 185 cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #206
Peak ranking: #58 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Jul 2026, 22:31 · Europe/Bucharest

Thiago Seyboth Wild's dominant clay form and superior return stats make him a strong favorite over Jan Kumstat, but his heavy recent schedule (seventh match in ten days) adds fatigue risk.

The best betting angles are Seyboth Wild to win the match and over 9.5 games in the first set, while the straight-sets win offers value but carries uncertainty due to Kumstat's resilience and extra rest.

Context

Seyboth Wild played five matches in Zug from 20-26 July, winning the title, then beat Andrej Martin on 28 July in Liberec.
- This round-of-16 match is his seventh singles match in ten days and his second consecutive match day.
- His last 15 matches average 92.1 minutes, but the cumulative workload may reduce his intensity in longer rallies.
Kumstat defeated Kolar 6-2, 4-6, 6-3 in 2 hours and 8 minutes on 27 July.
- He had no singles match on 28 July, giving him a rest advantage over Seyboth Wild.
- Kumstat's recent matches average 95.7 minutes, but the extra day may allow him to maintain his serve effectiveness.
Seyboth Wild's return points won (44.1%) and break point conversion (53.2%) in last 15 matches are significantly better than Kumstat's (37.9% and 43.8%).
- He has broken serve in 50 of 94 break point opportunities, showing efficiency on key points.
- Kumstat saves only 57.7% of break points, which could be exploited by Seyboth Wild's aggressive returning.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Seyboth Wild's dominant recent form on clay (13-2 record, superior return and break point stats) gives him a clear edge over Kumstat, despite potential fatigue from a busy schedule.
- Seyboth Wild is 13-2 in last 15 matches on clay, winning 86.7% of matches; Kumstat is 9-6 (60%) in the same window.
- Seyboth Wild has won 81.8% of sets in last 15 clay matches vs Kumstat's 60%.
- Seyboth Wild's return points won is 44.1% vs Kumstat's 37.9% in last 15 matches, indicating a significant edge in breaking serve.
- Seyboth Wild's break point conversion rate is 53.2% vs Kumstat's 43.8% in last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostThiago Seyboth WildEstimated chance72%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players have shown a tendency for competitive first sets, and with Seyboth Wild's fatigue potentially leveling the field, the opener is likely to be close.
- In Kumstat's last 15 matches, 10 first sets had 10 or more games; Seyboth Wild had 8 of 15 first sets with 10+ games.
- Kumstat's first sets average 9.8 games; Seyboth Wild's average 9.1 games, but against stronger returners, sets tend to be tighter.
- Seyboth Wild's last match vs Andrej Martin had a 10-game first set; Kumstat's last match vs Kolar had a 8-game first set, but Kolar is a higher-ranked opponent.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kumstat's matches tend to be longer, and Seyboth Wild's recent schedule may lead to closer sets, pushing the total games over 21.5.
- Kumstat's last 15 matches average 22.4 games per match; Seyboth Wild's average 20.2 games per match.
- In Kumstat's last 5 matches, 3 went over 21.5 games; Seyboth Wild's last 5 include two three-setters and a tiebreak set.
- Both players have competitive recent matches against similar-level opponents, suggesting a close contest.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Seyboth Wild's high first-set win rate in recent matches and overall career conversion suggests he is likely to start strong and take the opening set.
- Seyboth Wild has won the first set in 12 of his last 15 matches (80%); Kumstat has won the first set in 9 of his last 15 (60%).
- Seyboth Wild's first set win conversion rate in his career is 83%, indicating he often closes out matches after winning the opener.
- Kumstat's first set win conversion is 89%, but he faces a stronger opponent here.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostThiago Seyboth WildEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.10
The read
Seyboth Wild's high straight-set win rate and dominance on clay make a 2-0 victory plausible, though Kumstat's upset potential adds uncertainty.
- Seyboth Wild has won in straight sets in 10 of his last 15 matches (67%); Kumstat has lost in straight sets in 4 of his last 15 (27%).
- Seyboth Wild's superior return game and break point conversion could allow him to control the match without dropping a set.
- Kumstat's recent win over top seed Kolar shows he can compete, but Seyboth Wild's form is more consistent.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostThiago Seyboth Wild 2-0Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double fault rates, with Seyboth Wild particularly disciplined, making it likely the total stays under 4.5.
- Kumstat averages 2.9 double faults per match in last 15; Seyboth Wild averages 1.5 double faults per match.
- Combined average double faults: 4.4, just under the 4.5 line.
- Seyboth Wild's low double fault rate (1.5 per match) is a key factor in keeping the total down.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace averages of both players exceed the line, and Kumstat's serving strength could push the total over, though clay typically reduces ace counts.
- Kumstat averages 8.3 aces per match in last 15; Seyboth Wild averages 6.9 aces per match.
- Combined average aces per match: 15.2, slightly above the 14.5 line.
- Kumstat's height (196 cm) and first-serve points won (75.6%) suggest he can generate aces on clay.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 14.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Thiago Seyboth Wild has been highly reliable when projected to win

He has fulfilled 13 of 15 recent win predictions. The average estimated probability was 65.7%, with an expected 9.9 fulfilled predictions, indicating strong overperformance. Both missed predictions occurred at 65% probability, while the current 72% estimate sits within the historical range of 58–78%.

Recent evidence for Thiago Seyboth Wild15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·Liberec - Czech Republic

#404Andrej Martin0-2#206Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·72%

Matched

28 Jul 2026

Liberec - Czech Republic

#404Andrej Martin0-2#206Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

72%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

26 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#297Marc Andrea Huesler0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·62%

Matched

26 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#297Marc Andrea Huesler0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

62%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

25 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#276Thiago Seyboth Wild2-0#556Dylan Dietrich

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·62%

Matched

25 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#276Thiago Seyboth Wild2-0#556Dylan Dietrich

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

62%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

24 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#294Philip Henning0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·62%

Matched

24 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#294Philip Henning0-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

62%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

22 Jul·Zug - Switzerland

#206Daniel Rincon1-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugsThiago Seyboth Wild to win·58%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

Zug - Switzerland

#206Daniel Rincon1-2#276Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild to win

58%probability

Thiago Seyboth Wild won

Matched

Jan Kumstat

9W 6L

6-2 4-6 6-3#154Zdenek Kolar

1-6 7-6(1) 6-2#383Mathys Erhard

6-4 6-2#888Yuichiro Inui

7-5 6-4#186Tom Gentzsch

6-1 6-1#481Thijs Boogaard

6-7(5) 6-4 6-4#284Florian Broska

6-3 6-1#214Henri Squire

6-3 6-3#449Mateus Alves

7-6(2) 6-4#654Leo Raquillet

7-6(5) 6-2#718Pavel Lagutin

6-1 1-6 6-3—Duje Markovina

6-3 6-2#618Kai Wehnelt

6-4 7-6(3)#435Corentin Denolly

3-6 7-6(4) 6-2#387Georgii Kravchenko

7-6(5) 6-4#319Marvin Moeller

Thiago Seyboth Wild

13W 2L

6-1 6-4#404Andrej Martin

6-4 6-3#240Marc-Andrea Huesler

6-4 6-3#434Dylan Dietrich

6-1 7-6(1)#295Philip Henning

7-6(8) 4-6 6-3#207Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-2#154Zdenek Kolar

5-7 6-4 6-3#553Matyas Fuele

2-6 6-3 7-5#547Peter Makk

6-4 6-3#116Dalibor Svrcina

6-2 6-4#725Vincent Marysko

6-1 6-2—Oliver Majdandzic

6-2 6-2#315Gonzalo Villanueva

6-3 6-3#282Juan Manuel La Serna

6-0 1-0 ret.#369Nicolas Kicker

7-6(3) 7-6(6)#666Lucas Andrade Da Silva

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

JKJan KumstatKumstat

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Thiago Seyboth WildWildTW

Thiago Seyboth Wild carries the stronger recent form — Jan Kumstat's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In55.1%+10.1pp65.2%

1st Serve Won75.6%+3.5pp72.1%

2nd Serve Won56.3%+1.1pp57.4%

Aces / Match8.3+1.46.9

Double Faults / Match2.91.4 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won37.9%+6.2pp44.1%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted43.8%+9.4pp53.2%

Break Pts Saved57.7%+10.8pp68.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won52.1%+3.3pp55.4%

Serve · 2–3

55.1%1st Serve In+10.1pp65.2%

75.6%1st Serve Won+3.5pp72.1%

56.3%2nd Serve Won+1.1pp57.4%

8.3Aces / Match+1.46.9

2.9Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer1.5

Return · 0–1

37.9%Return Pts Won+6.2pp44.1%

Pressure · 0–2

43.8%Break Pts Converted+9.4pp53.2%

57.7%Break Pts Saved+10.8pp68.5%

Points · 0–1

52.1%Total Pts Won+3.3pp55.4%

Jan Kumstat

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Over 9.5

Thiago Seyboth Wild 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 2 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Jan Kumstat

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Stat Battle