SwitzerlandZug - SwitzerlandFinished

Predictions graded

Philip Henning #2940Thiago Seyboth Wild #276Brazil2

Sets 1-6 · 6-7Fri 24 Jul 2026, 11:00 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions3–443%

Edges2–250%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageThiago Seyboth Wild · 18 places

Philip Henning

Henning is a 25-year-old South African ranked No. 294 in the structured player reference. Public ATP bio detail is limited; the available profile data identifies him as a 180 cm right-hander with a two-handed backhand.

Current ranking: #294
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Brazil

Former ATP No. 58 in May 2024. ATP bio and profile sources describe clay as his preferred surface, and his July 2026 results trail includes a Challenger title in Piracicaba before this Zug run.

Current ranking: #276
Peak ranking: #58 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Jul 2026, 16:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Thiago Seyboth Wild's superior clay form and break point conversion make him the clear favorite, but Philip Henning's competitiveness should keep the match close.

The best value is on Wild to win 2-1 at 3.80, with over 21.5 total games also offering a solid edge.

Context

Wild's last-15 clay record: 11-4 (73.3%), with 68.6% sets won and 56.8% games won over 15 matches.
- Henning's last-15 clay record: 3-4 (42.9%), with 43.8% sets won and 47.3% games won over 7 matches.
- Wild won the Piracicaba Challenger on clay in June and opened in Zug with a 6-3, 6-2 win over No. 3 seed Zdenek Kolar.
Henning's clay break point conversion in last 15: 31.7% (20/63).
- Wild's clay break point conversion in last 15: 51.8% (43/83).
- Henning's second serve points won on clay is only 50.3%, adding pressure in break point situations.
Henning's last-15 clay set1 average: 10.1 games; in 6 of his last 7 clay matches, set1 exceeded 9.5 games.
- Henning has gone to a deciding set in 3 of his last 7 clay matches (43%).
- Wild has played 3-set matches in 5 of his last 15 clay matches (33%), showing he can be pushed.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Thiago Seyboth Wild

1.45fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Wild's superior clay form (73% win rate vs 43%) and stronger break point conversion give him a clear edge, but the odds imply a higher probability than the model estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Wild's superior recent clay form (73% win rate vs 43%) and stronger break point conversion give him a clear edge on this surface.
- Wild's last15 clay record: 11-4 (73.3%), with 68.6% sets won and 56.8% games won over 15 matches.
- Henning's last15 clay record: 3-4 (42.9%), with 43.8% sets won and 47.3% games won over 7 matches.
- Wild's break point conversion on clay in last15: 51.8% (43/83); Henning's: 31.7% (20/63).
- Wild's second serve points won on clay in last15: 56.6%; Henning's: 50.3%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonThiago Seyboth WildEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Competitive clay matches with solid serving and break point saving suggest a close contest likely exceeding 21.5 games.
- Henning's last15 clay matches average 21.1 games per match; Wild's average 21.1 as well, but 6 of Wild's last 10 clay matches exceeded 21.5 games.
- Both players have high hold rates on clay: Wild saves 59.7% of break points, Henning 56.4%.
- Three of Henning's last four clay matches went over 21.5 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Henning rarely loses by wide margins on clay, and Wild's wins are often close, making +3.5 games a solid cover.
- Henning's last15 clay matches: average game differential -1.3, with only 2 of 7 losses by more than 3.5 games.
- Wild's last15 clay wins: average margin +3.2 games, but 4 of his 11 wins were by 3 games or fewer.
- Henning's recent clay losses: 6-0 6-2, 6-2 6-4, 6-4 6-1, 4-6 6-3 7-6(3) — only one blowout.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostPhilip Henning +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Both players consistently produce tight opening sets on clay, with a strong trend toward over 9.5 games.
- Henning's last15 clay set1 average: 10.1 games; Wild's: 9.7 games.
- In 6 of Henning's last 7 clay matches, set1 exceeded 9.5 games.
- Wild's last 5 clay set1 results: 10, 9, 10, 10, 10 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Wild's strong first-set record and superior first-serve effectiveness on clay make him likely to start fast.
- Wild has won the first set in 10 of his last 15 matches overall (67%), including 5 of his last 6 clay matches.
- Henning has lost the first set in 4 of his last 7 clay matches (57%).
- Wild's first serve points won on clay in last15: 69.5%; Henning's: 61.7%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonThiago Seyboth WildEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Wild's excellent double-fault discipline and Henning's recent reduction make under 4.5 the more probable outcome.
- Wild averages 1.6 double faults per match on clay in last15; Henning averages 2.9.
- Combined average double faults: 4.5, but Wild's low rate (1.6) and Henning's recent improvement (2.0 in last 3 clay matches) suggest under.
- In their last 5 combined clay matches, total double faults exceeded 4.5 only once.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 4.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players consistently produce aces on clay, with a combined average above 10.5, making the over likely.
- Wild averages 6.4 aces per match on clay in last15; Henning averages 4.3.
- Combined average aces per match: 10.7, with Wild exceeding 6 aces in 8 of his last 14 tracked matches.
- Henning has hit 4+ aces in 5 of his last 7 clay matches.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 10.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Henning's high frequency of tiebreaks on clay, combined with competitive sets expected, makes at least one tiebreak likely.
- Henning has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 7 clay matches (57%).
- Wild has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 clay matches (33%).
- Both players have tiebreak win rates near 50% in recent clay matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 2 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Philip Henning

10W 5L

7-5 4-6 6-0#198Jerome Kym

7-6(4) 6-3#298Thiago Moura Monteiro

6-0 6-2#246Felix Balshaw

6-3 6-2#335Matteo Martineau

6-2 6-4#357Dominic Stricker

6-4 6-1#727Andres Santamarta Roig

4-6 6-3 7-6(3)#585Gerard Campana Lee

6-2 3-6 7-6(6)#549Alexander Donski

6-1 6-4#211Harold Mayot

6-2 6-1#254Giles Hussey

6-2 6-3#440Robert Strombachs

6-2 6-2#791Orel Kimhi

6-3 7-5#229Stefano Napolitano

6-2 6-2—Luc Koenig

6-3 6-3—Connor Henry Van Schalkwyk

Thiago Seyboth Wild

11W 4L

7-6(8) 4-6 6-3#206Daniel Rincon

6-3 6-2#154Zdenek Kolar

5-7 6-4 6-3#550Matyas Fuele

2-6 6-3 7-5#546Peter Makk

6-4 6-3#115Dalibor Svrcina

6-2 6-4#760Vincent Marysko

6-1 6-2—Oliver Majdandzic

6-2 6-2#320Gonzalo Villanueva

6-3 6-3#282Juan Manuel La Serna

6-0 1-0 ret.#350Nicolas Kicker

7-6(3) 7-6(6)#671Lucas Andrade Da Silva

2-6 6-3 6-2—Luis Felipe Miguel

6-4 3-6 7-5#274Nick Hardt

6-2 6-2—Alex Santino Nunez Vera

6-2 6-3#100Emilio Nava

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PHPhilip HenningHenning

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Thiago Seyboth WildWildTW

Thiago Seyboth Wild carries the stronger recent form — Philip Henning's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1563.3%+1.9pp65.2%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1570.5%+1.0pp69.5%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1552.4%+4.2pp56.6%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.3+2.16.4

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/152.50.9 fewer1.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1542.9%+1.7pp41.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1538.9%+12.9pp51.8%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1564.0%+4.3pp59.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1553.1%—53.3%

Serve · 1–4

63.3%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+1.9pp65.2%

70.5%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+1.0pp69.5%

52.4%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+4.2pp56.6%

4.3Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+2.16.4

2.5Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.9 fewer1.6

Return · 1–0

42.9%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15+1.7pp41.2%

Pressure · 1–1

38.9%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+12.9pp51.8%

64.0%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+4.3pp59.7%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

53.1%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—53.3%

Philip Henning #2940Thiago Seyboth Wild #276Brazil2

Player Profiles

Philip Henning

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Thiago Seyboth Wild 2-1

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Thiago Seyboth Wild

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Philip Henning @ 2.50

Philip Henning

Thiago Seyboth Wild

Stat Battle