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Predictions graded

Mathilde Lollia #640France0Clara Burel #214France2

Sets 0-6 · 1-6Thu 15 Oct 2026, 15:50 Predictions gradedSecond RoundClay

Predictions8–467%

Edges3–350%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageClara Burel · 426 places

Mathilde Lollia

France

French player ranked No. 640, aged 26, whose main surface is clay. In October 2026 she came through qualifying at the WTA 125 Lisboa Belém Open and beat fourth seed Darja Semenistaja to reach the second round.

Current ranking: #640
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: —
Height: —

Clara Burel

France

Reached a career-high No. 42 in June 2024. The WTA profile records an injury-affected 2025 with only one event played; no current-tournament source found it to be active in August 2026.

Current ranking: #214
Peak ranking: #42 · 2024
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 Oct 2026, 22:22 · Europe/Bucharest

A qualifier ranked 640, three three-set matches deep, meets a clay title-winner who has been closing matches in straight sets.

Burel should win, most likely in two sets, but 1.02 to win the match and 1.18 for a 2-0 win leave nothing. Over 19.5 games at 2.9, Lollia to win at 13 and a deciding set at 4.75 all have something behind them.

Context

Lollia arrived in the main draw only after two qualifying wins, then outlasted fourth seed Darja Semenistaja 7-6(5) 5-7 6-2 . The consequence is cumulative: she has played three consecutive three-set matches in three days, including a 2 hour 40 minute qualifying opener against Maria Martinez Vaquero, and faces Burel less than a day after finishing her first-round match. Burel, by contrast, won her opener in straight sets and had a rest day. The workload gap is the clearest physical condition for this match, though it does not by itself show that Lollia's level will drop, as she has been winning long matches all week.
- Lollia beat Maria Martinez Vaquero 3-6 6-4 6-2 in the first qualifying round
- She beat Loes Ebeling Koning 7-5 4-6 7-6(2) in the qualifying final
- She then defeated fourth seed Darja Semenistaja 7-6(5) 5-7 6-2 in the first round
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 22:19 · Europe/Bucharest
Burel tore her ACL in 2025 and played only one event that season, so the Valencia title marked her return to winning at WTA 125 level. It matters for this fixture because she is rebuilding ranking and match rhythm on clay rather than the indoor hard courts that have generally suited her, arriving with 11 wins from her previous 13 matches on the surface. The caveat is that the title came against a 125-level field, so it does not by itself establish her level against higher-ranked opposition.
- Burel beat Alicia Herrero Linana 4-6 6-0 6-2 in the Valencia final
- It was her second WTA 125 title after Angers in 2023 and her first since a 2025 ACL tear
- The title returned her to the top 220 of the rankings
ReportedSources checked 13 Oct 2026, 22:19 · Europe/Bucharest
Lollia has taken the opening set in six of her nine clay matches, while her second sets have gone the other way at three wins and six losses.
Lollia has taken the opening set in six of her nine clay matches, but her second sets have gone the other way at three wins and six losses. The same nine matches include five that reached a deciding set, so a fast start has not always carried through to the finish. Burel, by contrast, has been much stronger in second sets, which makes the middle set the part of Lollia's game most likely to be tested here.
- Clay set1 record 6-3; set2 record 3-6 across 9 matches (16 Jul–13 Oct 2026)
- Set1 games average 4.89 won / 5.00 lost; set2 4.33 won / 5.33 lost
- 5 of the 9 clay matches went to a deciding set
Burel's 13-match clay sample from 2 September to 12 October 2026 shows first sets 11-2 and second sets 12-1.
Ten of Burel's 13 clay matches finished 2-0, and she has averaged 19.4 games and 2.23 sets per match. First sets have gone 11-2 and second sets 12-1, with games won by 5.77 to 3.08 and 5.85 to 2.62. The sample covers six weeks and 13 matches and includes two defeats, so it is a strong habit rather than proof she will do the same against Lollia.
- 10 of 13 clay matches ended 2-0; scorelines 2-0 x10, 2-1 x1, 1-2 x2
- Average 19.4 games and 2.23 sets per match across 13 clay matches (2 Sep–12 Oct 2026)
- Set1 record 11-2 (5.77 games won vs 3.08 lost); set2 record 12-1 (5.85 vs 2.62)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Burel is the higher-ranked and more consistent clay player, winning sets by wide margins against comparable opposition.
- Clay record 11-2 with 64.7% of games and 55.7% of points won across 13 matches
- Clay set record 24-5; won 2-0 in 10 of 13 clay matches
- Ranked 214 against Lollia's 640
- Set1 clay record 11-2, set2 12-1
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonClara BurelEstimated chance78%

Games2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lollia has kept games close enough to avoid an eight-game defeat in most matches.
- Lollia's recent clay wins came by +3, +1 and +3 games
- Lollia has won 50.7% of clay games
- Lollia's clay matches averaged 24.8 total games
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMathilde Lollia +7.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lollia's games have stayed close, so she can avoid a seven-game defeat.
- Lollia's recent clay wins came by +3, +1 and +3 games
- Lollia has won 50.7% of clay games
- Burel lost 2 of her 13 clay matches
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMathilde Lollia +6.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.90
The read
Lollia's matches tend to run long, and her wins this week all went the distance.
- Lollia's clay matches averaged 24.8 total games
- Burel's clay matches averaged 19.4 total games
- All three of Lollia's wins this week needed three sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 19.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lollia has been competitive in games, and her recent wins came by narrow margins.
- Lollia's three clay wins this week came by +3, +1 and +3 games
- Lollia has won 50.7% of clay games
- Burel's clay games stand at 163 won and 89 lost
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMathilde Lollia +5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Burel's commanding first sets tend to finish short of ten games.
- Burel's set1 average total games is 8.85
- Burel won opening sets 6-1, 6-2 and 6-4 in recent clay matches
- Lollia's set1 average total games is 9.89
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Burel has won second sets comfortably on clay, keeping the total low.
- Burel's set2 average total games is 8.46
- Burel's set2 games won average 5.85 against 2.62 lost
- Lollia's set2 average total games is 9.67
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.07
The read
Burel has been very strong in second sets on clay while Lollia has often lost them.
- Burel's set2 clay record is 12-1
- Burel's set2 games won average 5.85 against 2.62 lost
- Lollia's set2 clay record is 3-6
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonClara BurelEstimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.07
The read
Burel has been dominant in opening sets on clay this season.
- Burel's set1 clay record is 11-2
- Burel's set1 games won average 5.77 against 3.08 lost
- Lollia's set1 clay record is 6-3
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonClara BurelEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Burel has usually finished clay matches in straight sets, keeping the match short.
- Burel's clay matches averaged 2.23 sets
- Lollia's clay matches averaged 2.56 sets
- 10 of Burel's 13 clay matches were 2-0
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Burel has been winning in straight sets on clay, usually taking each set by a clear margin.
- 10 of Burel's 13 clay matches ended 2-0
- Burel's clay set1 record 11-2 and set2 record 12-1
- Lollia lost 0-2 in 2 of 9 clay matches
BetBugs · Set BettingwonClara Burel 2-0Estimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most sets in these players' clay matches have finished before a tiebreak.
- Only 2 of Burel's 13 clay matches had a tiebreak
- 2 of Lollia's 9 clay matches had a tiebreak
- A tiebreak appeared in 4 of these 22 clay matches combined
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player has been serving many aces on clay.
- Lollia averages 0.9 aces per clay match
- Burel averages 1.5 aces per clay match
- Combined average is about 2.4 aces per match
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Burel's low double-fault count weighs against a high match total.
- Burel averages 2.5 double faults per clay match
- Lollia averages 4.9 double faults per clay match
- Combined average is about 7.4 per match
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance53%

Previous match context available

Mathilde Lollia

10W 5L

7-6(5) 5-7 6-2#131Darja Semenistaja 7-5 4-6 7-6(2)#378Loes Ebeling Koning

3-6 6-4 6-2#500Maria Martinez Vaquero

7-5 6-4#785Juliana Giaccio

6-1 6-4#263Carolyn Ansari

6-0 6-3#273Martha Matoula

6-1 6-2#736Alyssa Reguer

6-4 7-6(5)#879Marine Szostak

6-3 6-2—Manoly Rengeard

4-6 6-4 7-5#238Maria Lourdes Carle

6-4 6-4#772Liv Boulard

6-3 6-3#851Arina Gabriela Vasilescu

6-4 6-3—Polina Skliar

6-0 6-4#295Nastasja Mariana Schunk

6-4 1-6 6-0#327Anouck Vrancken Peeters

Clara Burel

12W 3L

6-1 6-3#361Lina Gjorcheska

4-6 6-0 6-2#222Alicia Herrero Linana

6-1 6-4#283Joelle Steur

6-2 6-4#148Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

7-6(3) 6-0#365Aran Teixido Garcia

6-3 1-6 6-1#148Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

6-4 6-1#333Tessa Johanna Brockmann

6-1 6-4#441Katerina Tsygourova

2-6 6-3 7-5#105Fiona Ferro

6-4 7-6(4)#264Federica Urgesi

6-0 6-3#457Emma Lene

7-5 6-2#239Justina Mikulskyte

6-2 6-0#527Sarah Van Emst

6-1 7-5#23Qinwen Zheng

6-4 6-2#184Yexin Ma

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MLMathilde LolliaLollia

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Clara BurelBurelCB

Clara Burel carries the stronger recent form — Mathilde Lollia's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In70.5%+9.2pp61.3%

1st Serve Won59.6%+1.7pp61.3%

2nd Serve Won43.7%+6.7pp50.4%

Aces / Match1.9+0.41.5

Double Faults / Match4.61.9 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won47.2%+5.3pp52.5%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted50.4%+8.7pp59.1%

Break Pts Saved54.3%+7.9pp62.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.1%+3.8pp54.9%

Serve · 2–3

70.5%1st Serve In+9.2pp61.3%

59.6%1st Serve Won+1.7pp61.3%

43.7%2nd Serve Won+6.7pp50.4%

1.9Aces / Match+0.41.5

4.6Double Faults / Match1.9 fewer2.7

Return · 0–1

47.2%Return Pts Won+5.3pp52.5%

Pressure · 0–2

50.4%Break Pts Converted+8.7pp59.1%

54.3%Break Pts Saved+7.9pp62.2%

Points · 0–1

51.1%Total Pts Won+3.8pp54.9%

Mathilde Lollia

Clara Burel

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 19.5

Over 2.5

Mathilde Lollia

Clara Burel

Clara Burel

Clara Burel 2-0

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 6 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Mathilde Lollia

Clara Burel

Stat Battle