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Predictions graded

Clement Chidekh #146France0Jerome Kym #249Switzerland2

Sets 6-7 · 6-7Wed 14 Oct 2026, 11:53 Predictions gradedFirst RoundI.hard

Predictions1–713%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageClement Chidekh · 103 places

Clement Chidekh

France

Career-best singles ranking listed as No. 176. His recorded career results are concentrated on hard and indoor hard courts; no current injury or withdrawal signal was returned by the targeted search.

Current ranking: #146
Peak ranking: #176
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Jerome Kym

Switzerland

Swiss right-hander who reached a career-best ATP singles ranking of No. 123 in May 2025. His official 2026 record shows most of his matches have been on clay, but no reliable source explicitly identifies a preferred surface.

Current ranking: #249
Peak ranking: #123 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Oct 2026, 23:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Chidekh brings a 12-2 hard-court run and a fresh Challenger title into a first-round match against a big server whose most recent appearance ended with a Porto semifinal withdrawal because of a right shoulder injury.

Chidekh is the likely winner, probably in straight sets. Of the reviewed prices, only the 1.43 for a Chidekh win offers anything; the 1.48 first-set and 2.05 straight-sets quotes ask too much.

Context

The walkover is the most recent competitive signal for Kym, who has no recorded match since 2 October and no public update on the shoulder. A shoulder problem touches the serve and overhead, the strokes that carry a 198 cm server, so his availability and serving level are the central uncertainty for this fixture. Roanne begins only ten days after the withdrawal, a short turnaround for a joint issue, and an opening-round match is the most exposed place to be short of match fitness.
- Kym withdrew from the Porto Challenger semifinal with a right shoulder injury and did not play, sending Henrique Rocha into the final without a match.
- The withdrawal followed a three-set quarterfinal win over Edas Butvilas, 6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(5), on 2 October.
To watchSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:26 · Europe/Bucharest
This is the strongest current marker of Chidekh's level: he conceded only two games in the final and had beaten Henry Bernet in straight sets in the semifinal for a fourth final of the season. The run also confirms his indoor-hard comfort, the surface used at Roanne, where 12 of his last 13 matches have been played. The counterweight is the level of opposition: a Challenger 75 draw is weaker than the top-100 fields Kym has recently faced, so the title should be read as current form rather than proof of a higher tier.
- Chidekh won the Mouilleron-le-Captif Challenger 75 final 6-2 6-0 over Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg, ending a nine-match winning run.
- It was his fifth Challenger title and third of the 2026 season, lifting him into the top 150 at No. 146 for the first time.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:26 · Europe/Bucharest
Chidekh's recent hard-court sets have been short: he averaged 5.86 games won to 3.07 lost in first sets and 5.71 to 3.07 in second sets, with just two tiebreaks in those 14 matches. That is why a quick, straight-sets match is the more likely shape of this one. It is a 14-match sample and one retirement is excluded from it, and it says nothing about how he copes with an opponent who holds serve as often as Kym can.
- Chidekh went 12-2 in 14 hard-court matches between 25 August and 4 October 2026, winning 11 of them 2-0.
- His first sets averaged 5.86 games won to 3.07 lost; second sets averaged 5.71 to 3.07.
- Only two of those 14 matches contained a tiebreak, and one retirement is excluded from the sample.
Kym has landed 60% of first serves and won 76.3% of points when they go in, which underpins a 10-5 record over the sample despite winning only 37.5% of return points and converting 41.7% of break points. Keeping that first-serve rate up is his clearest route to staying in the match against a player in Chidekh's current form. The 15 matches span mixed surfaces, and a 60% first-serve rate leaves second serves exposed when the first ball misses.
- Over 15 matches tracked, Kym averaged 9.5 aces and 3.9 double faults per match.
- He won 76.3% of points on first serve (573 of 751) and 49.7% on second serve (249 of 501).
- He won 51.7% of total points and 37.5% of return points across the same 15 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Clement Chidekh

1.48fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 67.6%

−0.6ppshort

Chidekh has started almost every recent match strongly, while Kym has split his first sets evenly on this surface.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Clement Chidekh 2-0

2.05fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 48.8%

−3.8ppshort

Chidekh has been winning in straight sets nearly every time and his scorelines show few dropped sets against this level of opponent.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Chidekh is the higher-ranked player in stronger form, having dropped only two of his last 14 hard-court matches and just won a Challenger title in dominant style.
- Chidekh: 12-2 in his last 14 hard-court matches, 11 of the 14 wins in straight sets
- Chidekh won the Mouilleron-le-Captif final 6-2 6-0 and is at a career-high No. 146
- Kym: 4-2 on hard in his last six, 52.8% of total points won on the surface
- Ranking gap: Chidekh No. 146 vs Kym No. 249
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostClement ChidekhEstimated chance72%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh's straight-set wins have been short, and if he dictates the match the game count should stay below the line.
- Chidekh's hard-court matches average 18.9 total games
- Kym's hard-court matches average 27.8 total games
- Chidekh's two-set wins this stretch produced 14, 18, 13 and 19 games
- Chidekh: 12-2 record with an average of 2.14 sets per match
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 23.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh's dominant early scorelines point to short opening sets more often than not.
- Chidekh's first sets on hard average 8.9 total games
- Chidekh won the Open de Vendee final 6-2 6-0
- Only one tiebreak in Chidekh's 14 first sets on hard
- Kym's first-set record on hard is 3-3
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.48
The read
Chidekh has started almost every recent match strongly, while Kym has split his first sets evenly on this surface.
- Chidekh: 12 wins from 14 first sets on hard
- Kym: 3 wins from 6 first sets on hard
- Chidekh's first-set games average is 5.86 won to 3.07 lost
- Kym's first-set record on hard is 3-3
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostClement ChidekhEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh's second-set record is as strong as his first-set record, so he remains the more likely winner of the second set if it is decisive.
- Chidekh: 12 wins from 14 second sets on hard
- Kym: 4 wins from 6 second sets on hard
- Chidekh's second-set totals average 8.8 games
- Kym's second sets on hard: 5.33 games won, 4.17 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostClement ChidekhEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh has closed out matches in straight sets almost every time recently, and his edge in level makes a quick finish the more likely outcome.
- Chidekh: 11 of 14 hard-court matches finished 2-0
- Chidekh's average match length is 2.14 sets
- Kym: five of six hard-court matches went to three sets
- Kym's average match length on hard is 2.83 sets
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chidekh's habit of breaking early and finishing matches quickly makes a tiebreak-free match the slightly more likely outcome.
- Chidekh: 12 of 14 hard-court matches without a tiebreak
- Chidekh's straight-set wins included 6-2 6-0 and 6-1 6-0
- Kym: three of six matches with a tiebreak on hard
- Chidekh's average match lasts 2.14 sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance56%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 2.63 price requires 38.0%, above our 28.0% estimate.

Prediction history

Clement Chidekh: 5/7 recent winner projections matched

5 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Clement Chidekh matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Clement Chidekh7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jul·Vancouver - Canada

#301Philip Sekulic0-2#204Clement Chidekh

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·58%

Matched

29 Jul 2026

Vancouver - Canada

#301Philip Sekulic0-2#204Clement Chidekh

Clement Chidekh to win

58%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

10 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#654Ivan Ivanov

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·72%

Matched

10 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#654Ivan Ivanov

Clement Chidekh to win

72%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

8 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#618Alberto Barroso Campos

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·65%

Matched

8 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-0#618Alberto Barroso Campos

Clement Chidekh to win

65%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

6 Jul·Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-1#572Maxime Janvier

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·72%

Matched

6 Jul 2026

Nottingham - Great Britain

#205Clement Chidekh2-1#572Maxime Janvier

Clement Chidekh to win

72%probability

Clement Chidekh won

Matched

22 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#200Clement Chidekh0-2#646Aziz Dougaz

BetBugsClement Chidekh to win·62%

Missed

22 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#200Clement Chidekh0-2#646Aziz Dougaz

Clement Chidekh to win

62%probability

Aziz Dougaz won

Missed

Clement Chidekh

13W 2L

6-2 6-0#189Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-2 6-4#371Henry Bernet

3-6 6-2 2-0 ret.#186Harold Mayot

6-4 3-6 6-2#305Ugo Blanchet

6-1 6-0#467David Goffin

6-4 6-4#186Harold Mayot

6-3 6-4#322Lucas Poullain

7-5 6-4#1532Finn Bass

7-6(5) 6-1#564Samir Banerjee

6-1 6-1#560Sebastian Dominko

6-1 6-3#611Alexander Vasilev

6-1 6-4#891Axel Garcian

6-3 6-2#850Kenny de Schepper

6-4 6-7(4) 6-2#56Arthur Gea

6-2 6-2#843Federico Coria

Jerome Kym

10W 5L

6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(5)#199Edas Butvilas

6-2 4-6 6-2#100Toby Samuel

3-6 7-5 6-1#365Tiago Torres

4-6 6-3 7-6(3)#227Remy Bertola

7-6(2) 2-6 6-4#212Colton Smith

6-0 6-3#391Dan Added

6-4 7-6(4)#164Tom Gentzsch

6-1 7-6(4)#181Elmer Moller

6-3 7-6(4)#216Lorenzo Giustino

6-3 7-6(4)#226Max Houkes

6-3 6-3#491Niels Mcdonald

7-5 4-6 6-0#267Philip Henning

1-6 6-4 6-4#240Jay Clarke

6-4 6-7(2) 7-6(5)#43Stefanos Tsitsipas

7-6(3) 2-6 7-6(5)#264Dylan Dietrich

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CCClement ChidekhChidekh

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Jerome KymKymJK

Clement Chidekh carries the stronger recent form — Jerome Kym's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1563.2%+3.2pp60.0%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1573.8%+2.5pp76.3%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1556.0%+6.3pp49.7%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/153.4+6.19.5

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/151.42.5 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1546.4%+8.9pp37.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1546.5%+4.8pp41.7%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1552.6%+7.4pp60.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1556.2%+4.5pp51.7%

Serve · 3–2

63.2%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+3.2pp60.0%

73.8%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.5pp76.3%

56.0%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+6.3pp49.7%

3.4Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+6.19.5

1.4Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.5 fewer3.9

Return · 1–0

46.4%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+8.9pp37.5%

Pressure · 1–1

46.5%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+4.8pp41.7%

52.6%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+7.4pp60.0%

Points · 1–0

56.2%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+4.5pp51.7%