Casper Ruud #24Norway11 – 0Felix Auger Aliassime #6Canada0

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65

The read

The higher-ranked player with the bigger serve and a clear head-to-head edge should hold the upper hand on this surface.

• ATP No. 6 vs No. 24; hard-court Last-15 form 7-3 vs 4-2
• Overall 79.8% first-serve points won and 13.9 aces per match
• Leads the listed head-to-head 4-2, including the last four meetings
• Hard-court set evidence: 4-4 first sets, 4-4 second sets across 8 matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Felix has only once won by more than three games in his recent sample.

• Five of Felix's six recent hard margins were +2 or lower
• Felix's games-won rate on hard is 51.1%
• Ruud is 4-2 on hard courts in the window

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Felix rarely wins by three or more games in the tracked sample.

• Ruud's three tracked hard margins: +3, +6, -4
• Only one of Felix's six recent hard margins exceeded +2
• Ruud won 13-10 and 13-7 on games in Shanghai

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' opening sets routinely reach double-figure games.

• Felix's first sets average 10.1 games on hard; Ruud's average 10
• 4 of 5 Ruud hard matches had a tiebreak
• Both players won 7-6 sets in Shanghai

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Second sets have been the longest part of both players' recent hard-court matches.

• Felix's second sets average 10.5 games; Ruud's average 10.4
• Ruud's second sets include multiple 7-6 sets
• Felix's hard matches featured tiebreaks in 3 of 8

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Felix's recent wins have often been by a single game, so Ruud staying within one game is plausible.

• Ruud's tracked hard-court game margins: +3, +6, -4
• Ruud won 51.1% of hard-court games
• Felix's recent margins were +6, +1, -6, +1, +2, -10

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Felix's serve-heavy matches tend to run long, and Ruud's recent sets have often been tight.

• Felix's best-of-3 hard matches average 25.4 total games; Ruud's average 20.4
• 4 of 5 Ruud hard matches and 3 of 8 Felix hard matches featured a tiebreak
• Ruud's Shanghai wins included 7-6 sets in both matches

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Felix's first-strike serving should give him the better start to the match.

• Felix's hard-court first sets are 4-4, averaging 10.1 games
• Ruud's first sets are 3-2, averaging 10 games
• Felix averaged 10.6 aces per match on hard courts

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Felix's serving and head-to-head edge make him the marginal favourite in the second set.

• Felix's hard-court second sets are 4-4, averaging 10.5 games
• Ruud's second sets are 3-2, averaging 10.4 games
• Felix holds a 4-2 listed head-to-head lead

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Ruud's hard-court contests have consistently finished in two sets.

• Ruud's five tracked hard matches all finished 2-0 or 0-2
• Ruud won his two Shanghai matches in straight sets
• Half of Felix's hard matches went the distance

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent hard-court matches often reach a tiebreak.

• 4 of Ruud's 5 hard matches featured a tiebreak; 3 of Felix's 8 did
• Ruud won 7-6 sets in back-to-back Shanghai matches
• Felix edged Ugo Carabelli 7-6 and Halys 7-6