Felix Auger Aliassime vs Alexander Shevchenko: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.02
The read
Felix Auger Aliassime's massive surface-fit edge on grass, superior serve metrics, and recent top-20 wins make him a heavy favorite over Shevchenko, who has almost no grass-court pedigree.
- Felix Auger Aliassime holds a 1-0 H2H edge, winning 7-6(2) 3-6 7-6(1) on indoor hard in 2023.
- Auger Aliassime has a 31-11 career grass record (73.8% win rate) vs Shevchenko's 1-7 (12.5%).
- In 2026, Auger Aliassime is 3-2 on grass with wins over Tien and Borges; Shevchenko is 0-1 on grass, losing to Shelbayh.
- Auger Aliassime's serve stats (ace rate 11%, first-serve win 75%) significantly outpace Shevchenko's (ace rate 4.8%, first-serve win 67%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFelix Auger AliassimeEstimated chance82%

Games0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have shown the ability to play tight sets, and Auger Aliassime's recent Bo5 matches have been high-scoring, making over 33.5 games likely.
- Auger Aliassime's last five Bo5 matches averaged 37.6 total games, with three exceeding 33.5.
- Shevchenko's recent matches show he can extend sets, with three of his last five going to a tiebreak or 7-5.
- H2H match had 35 games in a Bo3 format, suggesting a Bo5 could easily surpass 33.5.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 33.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Even in a likely loss, Shevchenko's ability to win games in patches and Auger Aliassime's occasional lapses make a +7.5 game handicap cover plausible.
- Shevchenko has covered a +7.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 losses, including against top-50 opponents.
- Auger Aliassime's recent wins have often been by margins of 4-6 games, not blowouts.
- In Bo5, a 3-1 win for Auger Aliassime could still see Shevchenko win 12+ games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostAlexander Shevchenko +7.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.14
The read
Auger Aliassime's strong recent trend of winning first sets, combined with Shevchenko's slow starts on grass, points to a high probability of the Canadian taking the opener.
- Auger Aliassime has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, including against Tiafoe and Tien on grass.
- Shevchenko has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including his only 2026 grass match vs Shelbayh.
- Auger Aliassime's career first-set win conversion rate is 87%, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFelix Auger AliassimeEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Despite the Bo5 format, the extreme surface disparity and Auger Aliassime's superior form could lead to a straight-sets victory, though Shevchenko's fighting spirit introduces some risk.
- Auger Aliassime has won in straight sets in 3 of his last 8 Bo5 matches, including a dominant 6-3 7-5 6-1 win over Tabilo.
- Shevchenko has lost in straight sets in 4 of his last 7 matches, including his only 2026 grass match.
- The surface mismatch heavily favors Auger Aliassime, who could dominate quickly.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 3.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players frequently engage in tiebreaks, and the grass surface often leads to tight service games, making at least one tiebreak highly probable.
- Auger Aliassime has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 6 matches, including two on grass.
- Shevchenko has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- H2H match featured two tiebreaks, and Auger Aliassime's tiebreak win rate is 59%.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Auger Aliassime's powerful serve on grass should produce a high ace count, and even Shevchenko's modest contribution pushes the total over 18.5.
- Auger Aliassime averages 11 aces per match (ace rate 11%), and in Bo5 matches, his ace count often exceeds 15.
- Shevchenko's ace rate is only 4.8%, but he has hit 8 aces in a Bo3 H2H match against Auger Aliassime.
- Grass courts amplify serving, and Auger Aliassime's 16 aces in the H2H suggest a high total.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 18.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players prone to occasional double faults and the match likely extending to at least four sets, the total double faults should surpass 7.5.
- Auger Aliassime has a double-fault rate of 4.9%, averaging about 3-4 per match in Bo5.
- Shevchenko's double-fault rate is 3.3%, but in longer matches, his count can rise (e.g., 3 double faults in a Bo3 H2H).
- Combined, their rates suggest around 7-8 double faults in a four-set match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Felix Auger Aliassime #4Canada3Alexander Shevchenko #98Kazakhstan0

Player Profiles

Felix Auger-Aliassime

Alexander Shevchenko

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Felix Auger Aliassime 3-1

Felix Auger Aliassime

Felix Auger Aliassime

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 2 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Felix Auger Aliassime

Alexander Shevchenko