ChinaATP ShanghaiFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #77Argentina1Felix Auger Aliassime #6Canada2

Sets 6-4 · 6-7 · 5-7Sat 10 Oct 2026, 04:09 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions6–555%

Edges3–350%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFelix Auger Aliassime · 71 places

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Argentina

Argentine born 17 June 1999. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 43 in August 2025 after back-to-back ATP Tour semi-finals in Bastad and Umag.

Current ranking: #77
Peak ranking: #43 · 2025
Current age: 27
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Felix Auger Aliassime

Canada

Auger-Aliassime reached his career-high No. 4 on 8 June 2026 and remains No. 4. ATP and ITF sources identify hard court as his favourite or preferred surface.

Current ranking: #6
Peak ranking: #4 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 03:35 · Europe/Bucharest

A top-10 seed against a No. 77 who has won two of his last seven hard-court matches: Auger-Aliassime is the likely winner, though his recent game margins suggest a closer match than the ranking gap implies.

Ugo Carabelli with a four-and-a-half game start at 2.6 is one of several quoted prices that offer something, alongside the match going to a deciding set at 4, Ugo Carabelli for either set at 6.5, the match at 15 and a 2-1 win at 21. Auger-Aliassime at 1.01 does not.

Context

Ugo Carabelli's 2-6 6-2 7-5 win over the qualifier Ilia Simakin ended a run without a tour-level victory dating back to July and moved him into the Shanghai second round. It matters here because it is his only competitive outing on the venue and it lasted three sets, whereas Auger-Aliassime enters the match from a bye. The limitation is the opponent's level: Simakin is ranked outside the top 150 and came through qualifying, so the result speaks more to Ugo Carabelli's own readiness than to how he will handle a top-10 opponent.
- Ugo Carabelli beat Ilia Simakin 2-6 6-2 7-5 in the Shanghai first round after losing the opening set
- The win ended a run without a tour-level victory dating back to July
- Simakin arrived having played four consecutive Challengers, winning three of them
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 03:32 · Europe/Bucharestumpiry.comumpiry.com · 9 Oct 2026
The appointment is a current staffing change rather than a results trend: Ljubicic, who previously coached Roger Federer, joined Auger-Aliassime's team for this swing and was on court with him in Shanghai. For this fixture it is a fresh variable around the higher-ranked player, and Auger-Aliassime has said he is still working out what he wants to take from the partnership. There is no track record with the new arrangement yet, so the change is context rather than a demonstrated improvement.
- Auger-Aliassime trained in Shanghai with new coach Ivan Ljubicic
- Ljubicic previously coached Roger Federer
- The on-court work focused on the backhand and backhand slice
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 03:32 · Europe/Bucharest
Ugo Carabelli's recent hard-court matches have started badly and often finished quickly.
In the same six-match window he was beaten in straight sets four times, and his one win came in a three-setter here. That points to a slow start against a server of Auger-Aliassime's quality, though a poor opening-set record does not by itself decide how long the match lasts.
- Six completed hard-court matches tracked, 3 August to 8 October 2026; two further hard-court matches in the window were excluded as retirements.
- One first set won and five lost across those six matches, averaging 3.8 games won and 6.0 games lost.
- Four of the six matches ended in a 0-2 straight-sets defeat.
The comment offers a specific read on the preparation and mindset Auger-Aliassime brings into the second round rather than a ranking statistic. It matters for context because he is navigating a coaching transition at the same time, and he framed the Nadal period as a formative influence on how he trains. It is a reflective interview answer rather than evidence of a change in results, so it should not be read as a forecast signal.
- Auger-Aliassime said he took from Toni Nadal the standard that every ball and every session must count
- He described the period as a step forward taken at age 20
- He also outlined what he hopes to gain from working with Ivan Ljubicic
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 03:32 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ranking, surface record and the previous meeting all point the same way, and Auger-Aliassime's serve gives him a clear holding advantage over an opponent short of hard-court wins.
- Auger-Aliassime is ranked No. 6 against No. 77 Ugo Carabelli
- Auger-Aliassime is 5-3 in his last 8 completed hard-court matches; Ugo Carabelli is 2-5 in his last 7
- Auger-Aliassime won the only previous meeting 6-0 6-3 6-4 in 2022
- Auger-Aliassime reached the Shanghai quarter-finals in 2025
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFelix Auger AliassimeEstimated chance82%

Games4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
A seven-game winning margin means a lopsided scoreline, and Auger-Aliassime's recent hard-court matches have mostly been closer than that.
- Auger-Aliassime's largest winning margin in his last six completed hard-court matches was five games
- Ugo Carabelli's last six hard-court game margins were +2, -7, -7, -8, +4 and -6
- Auger-Aliassime won 49.8% of hard-court games in this window
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonCamilo Ugo Carabelli +6.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Auger-Aliassime has not been winning games by wide margins on hard lately, so a four-and-a-half game start gives Ugo Carabelli a reasonable cushion.
- Auger-Aliassime's game margins in his last six completed hard-court matches were -6, +1, +2, -10, +5 and -5
- Auger-Aliassime has won 49.8% of games on hard in this window
- Ugo Carabelli has won 54 of 130 games (41.5%) in his last six completed hard-court matches
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonCamilo Ugo Carabelli +4.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches have run close to or beyond this line, and Auger-Aliassime has been taken to a decider several times.
- Ugo Carabelli's recent completed hard-court matches average 20.8 total games
- Auger-Aliassime's recent best-of-three hard-court matches average 23.7 total games
- Auger-Aliassime averaged 124 minutes per hard-court match in this window
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined opening-set totals sit just above this line, so a 6-4 or longer first set is marginally more likely than a short one.
- Ugo Carabelli's opening sets on hard average 9.8 total games
- Auger-Aliassime's opening sets on hard average 10.3 total games
- Both players have one tiebreak in six recent opening sets on hard
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ugo Carabelli's second sets on hard have averaged only nine games, keeping the under side marginally ahead.
- Ugo Carabelli's second sets on hard average 9.0 total games
- Auger-Aliassime's second sets on hard average 10.2 total games
- Ugo Carabelli has no tiebreaks in his six recent second sets
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ugo Carabelli has started slowly on hard, and Auger-Aliassime's serve should give him the better opening set.
- Ugo Carabelli won 1 of 6 opening sets in his recent hard-court matches
- Ugo Carabelli's opening sets on hard average 3.8 games won to 6.0 lost
- Auger-Aliassime won 3 of 6 opening sets in his recent hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostFelix Auger AliassimeEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The second-set records follow the same pattern as the opening set, with Auger-Aliassime's serve likely to decide the key games.
- Ugo Carabelli won 2 of 6 second sets in his recent hard-court matches
- Auger-Aliassime won 3 of 6 second sets in his recent hard-court matches
- Auger-Aliassime's second sets on hard average 5.2 games won to 5.0 lost
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonFelix Auger AliassimeEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Ugo Carabelli's hard-court matches usually end in straight sets, and a player of Auger-Aliassime's ranking is the most likely to close one out.
- Ugo Carabelli has been beaten 0-2 in four of his last six completed hard-court matches
- Auger-Aliassime won 2-0 in two of his six recent best-of-three hard-court matches
- Ugo Carabelli is 2-5 on hard in his last seven completed matches
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Ugo Carabelli's hard-court matches usually end in straight-set defeats, and Auger-Aliassime's serve makes a two-set win the most likely single outcome.
- Ugo Carabelli has been beaten 0-2 in four of his last six completed hard-court matches
- Auger-Aliassime is 5-3 on hard in this window against Ugo Carabelli's 2-5
- Auger-Aliassime won their only previous meeting in straight sets
BetBugs · Set BettinglostFelix Auger Aliassime 2-0Estimated chance54%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent hard-court matches finished without a tiebreak, and Auger-Aliassime's serve tends to close sets before 6-6.
- One of Ugo Carabelli's last six completed hard-court matches contained a tiebreak
- Two of Auger-Aliassime's last six best-of-three hard-court matches contained a tiebreak
- Ugo Carabelli's opening sets on hard average 9.8 total games
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance68%

Prediction history

Felix Auger Aliassime: 11/15 recent winner projections matched

11 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Felix Auger Aliassime matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Felix Auger Aliassime15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

5 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-2#23Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

BetBugsFelix Auger Aliassime to win·62%

Matched

5 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-2#23Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Felix Auger Aliassime to win

62%probability

Felix Auger Aliassime won

Matched

3 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-0#144Michael Zheng

BetBugsFelix Auger Aliassime to win·82%

Matched

3 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-0#144Michael Zheng

Felix Auger Aliassime to win

82%probability

Felix Auger Aliassime won

Matched

1 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-0#89Dino Prizmic

BetBugsFelix Auger Aliassime to win·78%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-0#89Dino Prizmic

Felix Auger Aliassime to win

78%probability

Felix Auger Aliassime won

Matched

29 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-0#98Alexander Shevchenko

BetBugsFelix Auger Aliassime to win·82%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-0#98Alexander Shevchenko

Felix Auger Aliassime to win

82%probability

Felix Auger Aliassime won

Matched

19 Jun·ATP Halle

#26Frances Tiafoe2-1#4Felix Auger Aliassime

BetBugsFelix Auger Aliassime to win·62%

Missed

19 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#26Frances Tiafoe2-1#4Felix Auger Aliassime

Felix Auger Aliassime to win

62%probability

Frances Tiafoe won

Missed

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L6-0 6-3 6-4Camilo Ugo Carabelli#77vFelix Auger Aliassime#6May 25, 2022

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

5W 10L

2-6 6-2 7-5#154Ilia Simakin

6-2 6-3#85Rinky Hijikata

6-3 6-2#147Federico Cina

6-4 6-3 6-3#59Jan-Lennard Struff

6-2 5-0 ret.#356Moez Echargui

7-5 6-4#119Nicolas Mejia

6-3 6-3#61Miomir Kecmanovic

7-6(5) 6-4#40Cameron Norrie

6-0 3-6 6-4#72Titouan Droguet

6-2 2-6 6-3#62Roman Andres Burruchaga

3-6 7-5 7-5#65Pablo Carreno-Busta

6-7(2) 7-6(3) 6-3#330Marko Topo

4-6 3-6 6-2 3-0 ret.#44Daniel Merida Aguilar

6-1 1-6 6-3 7-6(5)#23Andrey Rublev

7-6(10) 6-3 6-3#122Emilio Nava

Felix Auger Aliassime

10W 5L

6-3 6-3#27Karen Khachanov

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#33Arthur Rinderknech

7-6(5) 4-6 6-3#48Quentin Halys

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2 6-2#27Karen Khachanov

7-5 4-6 6-3 7-5#85Rinky Hijikata

6-3 6-4#8Frances Tiafoe

7-5 6-1#55Juan Manuel Cerundolo

6-3 7-5#43Stefanos Tsitsipas

7-6(10) 3-6 6-3 6-7(4) 7-6(4)#11Novak Djokovic

6-7(4) 7-6(6) 6-3 6-7(2) 6-1#26Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

7-6(1) 6-2 6-1#94Michael Zheng

7-6(2) 6-3 7-5#97Dino Prizmic

6-3 6-1 6-4#111Alexander Shevchenko

3-6 6-3 7-6(12)#8Frances Tiafoe

6-7(5) 7-5 7-6(5)#16Learner Tien

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

CCCamilo Ugo CarabelliCarabelli

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Felix Auger AliassimeAliassimeFA

Felix Auger Aliassime carries the stronger recent form — Camilo Ugo Carabelli's route runs through return.

Serve · 1–4

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1558.2%+7.3pp65.5%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1567.6%+12.7pp80.3%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1545.3%+1.2pp46.5%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/154.5+11.415.9

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/153.90.6 fewer4.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1537.3%+2.7pp34.6%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1536.8%+5.4pp42.2%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1552.5%+13.7pp66.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1547.7%+3.9pp51.6%

Serve · 1–4

58.2%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15+7.3pp65.5%

67.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+12.7pp80.3%

45.3%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+1.2pp46.5%

4.5Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15+11.415.9

3.9Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/150.6 fewer4.5

Return · 1–0

37.3%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+2.7pp34.6%

Pressure · 0–2

36.8%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+5.4pp42.2%

52.5%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15+13.7pp66.2%

Points · 0–1

47.7%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+3.9pp51.6%

Camilo Ugo Carabelli #77Argentina1Felix Auger Aliassime #6Canada2

Player Profiles

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Felix Auger Aliassime

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Camilo Ugo Carabelli +4.5

Over 2.5

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Camilo Ugo Carabelli 2-1

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games4 of 5 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Felix Auger Aliassime: 11/15 recent winner projections matched

Head-to-Head

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Felix Auger Aliassime

Stat Battle