PortugalMaia - PortugalFinished

Predictions graded

Michael Vrbensky #754Czechia2Raul Brancaccio #231Italy0

Sets 6-3 · 6-1Tue 13 Oct 2026, 13:58 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions1–811%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRaul Brancaccio · 523 places

Michael Vrbensky

Czechia

Vrbensky reached a career-high singles ranking of No. 277 on 15 July 2024. Official ITF records show his year-end singles ranking moved from No. 299 in 2023 to No. 636 in 2025; no reliable source in this search attributed that change to an active injury.

Current ranking: #754
Peak ranking: #277 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Raul Brancaccio

Italy

Italian right-hander whose career-high ranking was No. 121 in February 2023. His match record is predominantly on clay; he won the Menorca Challenger in April 2026.

Current ranking: #231
Peak ranking: #121 · 2023
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 12 Oct 2026, 22:14 · Europe/Bucharest

Brancaccio sits 523 ranking places above Vrbensky, but he has lost three of his last four and has not played since 5 October, while Vrbensky has won twice on the Maia clay this week.

Brancaccio is still the likelier winner, yet 1.44 asks for about 69% and the evidence for him does not reach that, so the price offers nothing.

Context

Vrbensky is ranked No. 754 and had won only four of his previous fifteen matches, leaving him more than 500 places below Brancaccio in the ranking, so he starts as the underdog. His two wins in Maia qualifying came on the tournament clay, which gives him match rhythm and surface familiarity that a direct entrant may not have on the opening day. The limitation is that his ranking is far below the No. 277 career high he reached in July 2024, so the qualifying wins are his only recent results at this level.
- Vrbensky beat Patrick Schoen 6-3 6-4 in the final qualifying round at Maia .
- The main-draw pairing places Vrbensky against Raul Brancaccio in the first round.
- Vrbensky is ranked No. 754 and the stored record shows four wins in his previous fifteen matches.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 22:13 · Europe/Bucharest
Brancaccio is the higher-ranked player at No. 231 and a former No. 121, but he has won only five of his last fifteen matches and his latest match was a hard-court defeat in Villena . Maia returns him to clay after that gap, and he has no competitive match at the venue this week, while Vrbensky has already played and won twice on the Maia courts. The ranking still favours Brancaccio, so the lack of recent clay rhythm is a modest counterpoint to the gap rather than a reversal.
- Moez Echargui beat Brancaccio 7-5 6-4 in the first round of the Villena Challenger .
- Brancaccio is ranked No. 231 and reached a career-high No. 121 in February 2023.
- The stored record shows five wins in Brancaccio's previous fifteen matches.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 22:13 · Europe/Bucharest
The Maia Open is a long-running ATP Challenger in Portugal, and a ninth edition in a new calendar slot indicates an established event operating in a different part of the season. That matters mainly for setting and field: the players meet at a stable clay Challenger rather than a one-off event, and the new date can change the ranking pressure and the standard of the draw, which shapes the field around this first-round meeting.
- The 2026 Maia Open is the ninth edition of the tournament and is taking place in a new calendar slot.
- The event is an ATP Challenger played on clay in Portugal.
ReportedSources checked 12 Oct 2026, 22:13 · Europe/Bucharest
Those 13 clay matches ran from 11 July to 24 September 2026. Brancaccio has averaged 5.85 games in first sets against 4.92 lost, but only 4.38 won in second sets against 5.0 lost, so his stronger phase in the window has been the opening set. Seven of the 13 went to a deciding set and five contained a tiebreak, a reminder that his clay sets have tended to be close rather than one-sided.
- Brancaccio's clay set1 record is 8-5 with 5.85 games won and 4.92 lost per opening set across 13 matches (11 July to 24 September 2026).
- His clay set2 record is 5-8 with 4.38 games won and 5.0 lost per second set.
- Clay scorelines: 2-0 three times, 2-1 twice, 1-2 five times, 0-2 three times; five of the 13 matches contained a tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Raul Brancaccio

1.44fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 69.4%

−6.4ppshort

Brancaccio sits far higher in the rankings and holds the better clay record and game share in the same period, so he is the clear favourite despite modest recent form.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Brancaccio sits far higher in the rankings and holds the better clay record and game share in the same period, so he is the clear favourite despite modest recent form.
- Brancaccio ranked 231, Vrbensky ranked 754
- Brancaccio 5-8 on clay in this window; Vrbensky 3-11
- Brancaccio won 49.1% of clay games and 48.3% of clay points
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostRaul BrancaccioEstimated chance63%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' first sets average above ten games with notable tiebreak frequency, making a longer opening set the likely outcome.
- Vrbensky set1 total games average 10.5
- Brancaccio set1 total games average 10.77
- Vrbensky four set1 tiebreaks; Brancaccio three in 13 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-set game averages sit right around the line and both players record tiebreaks there, tilting slightly toward a longer set.
- Vrbensky set2 total games average 9.93
- Brancaccio set2 total games average 9.38
- Vrbensky three set2 tiebreaks; Brancaccio three in 13 clay matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The two players' clay matches average very close to the line, and frequent three-set contests keep longer matches common.
- Vrbensky clay total games average 25.5
- Brancaccio clay total games average 24.77
- Brancaccio average match duration 113.9 minutes on clay
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 25.5Estimated chance53%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brancaccio has the stronger opening-set record and the higher ranking, making him the likelier first-set winner.
- Brancaccio set1 record on clay 8-5
- Vrbensky set1 record on clay 5-9
- Brancaccio won 8 of 13 clay opening sets
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostRaul BrancaccioEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Although Brancaccio's second-set record is modest, Vrbensky's is worse and the ranking gap still favours Brancaccio.
- Brancaccio set2 record on clay 5-8
- Vrbensky set2 record on clay 4-10
- Brancaccio set2 games won average 4.38
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostRaul BrancaccioEstimated chance56%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players average right at the three-set threshold and have frequently gone the distance, so a deciding set is slightly more likely than not.
- Vrbensky clay total sets average 2.5
- Brancaccio clay total sets average 2.54
- Combined clay scorelines show 14 of 27 matches going to three sets
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance54%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
More than half of each player's recent clay matches finished without a tiebreak, making a tiebreak-free match the slightly more likely result.
- Vrbensky no tiebreak in seven of 14 clay matches
- Brancaccio no tiebreak in eight of 13 clay matches
- Vrbensky matches with tiebreak 50%, Brancaccio 38%
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance54%

Prediction history

Raul Brancaccio: 4/5 recent winner projections matched

4 of 5 comparable winner projections favouring Raul Brancaccio matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Raul Brancaccio5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

11 Jul·ATP Umag

#248Raul Brancaccio1-2#212Federico Agustin Gomez

BetBugsRaul Brancaccio to win·58%

Missed

11 Jul 2026

ATP Umag

#248Raul Brancaccio1-2#212Federico Agustin Gomez

Raul Brancaccio to win

58%probability

Federico Agustin Gomez won

Missed

6 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio2-1#268Franco Agamenone

BetBugsRaul Brancaccio to win·52%

Matched

6 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#248Raul Brancaccio2-1#268Franco Agamenone

Raul Brancaccio to win

52%probability

Raul Brancaccio won

Matched

10 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#209Liam Broady0-2#237Raul Brancaccio

BetBugsRaul Brancaccio to win·58%

Matched

10 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#209Liam Broady0-2#237Raul Brancaccio

Raul Brancaccio to win

58%probability

Raul Brancaccio won

Matched

8 Jun·Cattolica - Italy

#660Pierluigi Basile0-2#239Raul Brancaccio

BetBugsRaul Brancaccio to win·62%

Matched

8 Jun 2026

Cattolica - Italy

#660Pierluigi Basile0-2#239Raul Brancaccio

Raul Brancaccio to win

62%probability

Raul Brancaccio won

Matched

16 May·ATP Geneva

#240Raul Brancaccio2-1#298Tyler Zink

BetBugsRaul Brancaccio to win·58%

Matched

16 May 2026

ATP Geneva

#240Raul Brancaccio2-1#298Tyler Zink

Raul Brancaccio to win

58%probability

Raul Brancaccio won

Matched

Previous match context available

Michael Vrbensky

4W 11L

6-3 6-4#368Patrick Schoen

4-3 ret.#423Olle Wallin

7-5 6-2#613Kai Wehnelt

2-6 6-2 6-4#456Oleksii Krutykh

6-3 3-6 6-2#124Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-3 5-7 6-3#640Maxime Janvier

7-6(2) 6-7(2) 6-4#881Patrik Niklas-Salminen

7-6(8) 4-6 6-3#640Maxime Janvier

7-6(4) 6-1#583Milos Karol

6-0 6-1#239Marvin Moeller

7-6(4) 6-3#325Dali Blanch

6-3 4-6 7-6(5)#396Robin Bertrand

7-5 7-6(2)#841Daniel Cukierman

6-3 6-4#378Franco Agamenone

5-7 7-6(3) 7-5#653Yaroslav Demin

Raul Brancaccio

5W 10L

7-5 6-4#356Moez Echargui

6-4 7-6(1)#437Mika Petkovic

7-6(4) 6-2#306Filippo Romano

4-6 6-2 6-1#288Hynek Barton

2-6 6-1 6-1#49Jaume Antoni Munar Clar

5-7 6-3 6-3#144Pablo Llamas Ruiz

6-2 2-6 6-1#343Jonas Forejtek

7-6(1) 6-2#353Duje Ajdukovic

6-2 6-1#136Thiago Seyboth Wild

5-7 7-6(5) 7-6(4)#239Marvin Moeller

6-3 6-3#289Filip Cristian Jianu

7-6(4) 7-6(2)#181Elmer Moller

6-4 6-4#196Zdenek Kolar

6-4 2-6 6-1#186Harold Mayot

5-7 6-2 6-4#204Federico Agustin Gomez

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MVMichael VrbenskyVrbensky

Last 15

3–3

9 core stats · 3 even

Raul BrancaccioBrancaccioRB

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 14/1557.2%+5.8pp63.0%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/1566.6%+2.7pp63.9%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/1547.7%—47.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 14/154.1+1.62.5

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/154.00.9 fewer3.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/1537.7%—37.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/1537.9%+0.9pp37.0%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/1552.3%+8.6pp60.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/1548.0%—47.7%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

57.2%1st Serve In15/15 · 14/15+5.8pp63.0%

66.6%1st Serve Won15/15 · 14/15+2.7pp63.9%

47.7%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 14/15—47.4%

4.1Aces / Match15/15 · 14/15+1.62.5

4.0Double Faults / Match15/15 · 14/150.9 fewer3.1

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

37.7%Return Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—37.2%

Pressure · 1–1

37.9%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 14/15+0.9pp37.0%

52.3%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 14/15+8.6pp60.9%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

48.0%Total Pts Won15/15 · 14/15—47.7%