Liam Broady vs Raul Brancaccio: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Brancaccio's overwhelming career clay expertise and home-country advantage give him a clear edge over Broady, who has limited clay success.
- Brancaccio has a 305-67 career clay record vs Broady's 82-300, indicating a massive surface-fit edge.
- Brancaccio's 2026 clay record is 16-12, while Broady's is 4-3, showing Brancaccio's higher volume and success on clay.
- Broady's recent form includes a 6-3 3-6 6-2 win over a lower-ranked opponent, but Brancaccio's straight-set win in his opener suggests fresher legs.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRaul BrancaccioEstimated chance58%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Broady's ability to stay competitive in matches, even on clay, makes him likely to cover a +3.5 game handicap.
- Broady's recent losses have been by margins of 6, 9, and 4 games, but his wins are often dominant.
- Brancaccio's wins are often close, with several three-set victories.
- Broady's competitive recent form suggests he can keep the match within a 3.5-game margin.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostLiam Broady +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in long matches recently, and their similar break point save rates indicate a competitive, extended contest.
- Broady's last three matches averaged 23.3 games, with two going to three sets.
- Brancaccio's last five matches averaged 24.4 games, with four going to three sets.
- Both players have similar break point save rates (Broady 59.7%, Brancaccio 57.2%), suggesting extended games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set trends for both players suggest a tight opening set, likely exceeding 9.5 games.
- Brancaccio's opener had two tiebreaks, and Broady's first set was 6-3.
- Broady's recent matches show first sets averaging 9.3 games.
- Brancaccio's first sets in his last five matches averaged 10.2 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is likely to be competitive, with both players' recent second-set averages above 9.5 games.
- Broady's second sets in his last three matches averaged 10 games.
- Brancaccio's second sets in his last five matches averaged 10.2 games.
- Both players have shown the ability to extend sets, with Brancaccio's opener featuring two tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.10
The read
The high frequency of three-set matches for both players suggests this match is likely to go the distance.
- Broady has played three-setters in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Brancaccio has played three-setters in 4 of his last 5 matches.
- Both players have deciding set win rates around 50%, indicating they are evenly matched in tight contests.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brancaccio's strong first-set record and recent straight-set win make him a slight favorite to take the opening set.
- Brancaccio won his opener in straight sets with two tiebreaks, showing clutch play in tight moments.
- Broady dropped a set in his opener, indicating potential early vulnerability.
- Brancaccio's first-set win conversion rate is 87%, suggesting he starts matches strongly.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonRaul BrancaccioEstimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, and the clay surface further suppresses ace totals, making under 7.5 likely.
- Broady's ace rate is 5%, and Brancaccio's is 2.8%, both below average.
- In their recent matches, Broady averaged 3.2 aces per match, Brancaccio 2.1.
- Clay courts typically reduce ace counts due to slower surface speed.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of both players and recent tiebreak occurrences make a tiebreak in this match likely.
- Brancaccio's opener featured two tiebreaks, and he has a 55% career tiebreak win rate.
- Broady's career tiebreak win rate is 51%, and he played a tiebreak in his match against Schoolkate.
- Both players have shown the ability to push sets to tiebreaks in recent matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Brancaccio's higher double fault rate and both players' recent averages point to a total exceeding 5.5.
- Brancaccio's double fault rate is 4.7%, higher than Broady's 3.2%.
- In recent matches, Brancaccio averaged 3.8 double faults, Broady 2.5.
- Combined, their averages suggest a total around 6.3 double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Liam Broady #209United Kingdom0Raul Brancaccio #237Italy2

Player Profiles

Liam Broady

Raul Brancaccio

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Raul Brancaccio

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Liam Broady

Raul Brancaccio