Raul Brancaccio #240Italy22 – 1Tyler Zink #298United States1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Brancaccio's massive clay-court experience and superior return stats give him a structural edge on this surface, supported by slightly better recent form against similar-level opponents.

• Brancaccio has 303 career clay wins vs Zink's 39, with a 14-8 clay record in 2026.
• Brancaccio's recent form (last 5): 3-2, including wins over Cecchinato (182) and Clarke (207); Zink is 3-2 with losses to Galan (271) and Shick (390).
• Brancaccio's return points won (43%) and break point conversion (45%) exceed Zink's (38% and 38%).
• Brancaccio's first-set win conversion is 87%, matching Zink's, but his clay experience gives him an edge in best-of-3.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Recent match lengths and both players' competitive set scores suggest a match exceeding 21.5 games, with neither likely to dominate quickly.

• Brancaccio's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games; Zink's averaged 22.4 games.
• Both players have a deciding-set win rate around 46-62%, indicating close matches.
• In best-of-3 clay matches, both have a tendency for tight sets: Brancaccio's recent wins include 6-4, 7-5 scorelines.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Zink's serving edge and Brancaccio's lack of dominant wins suggest Zink will cover a +3.5 game handicap in a competitive match.

• Zink's recent losses have been by margins of 4, 5, and 2 games; Brancaccio's wins by 2, 5, and 5 games.
• Zink's serve stats (ace rate 7%, first-serve win 71%) can keep games close.
• H2H is absent, but both players are in similar ranking range (240 vs 298).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

First sets in their recent matches have consistently gone over 9.5 games, with neither player showing dominant early breaks.

• Brancaccio's last 5 first sets: 6-3, 3-6, 4-6, 6-3, 5-7 (avg 9.8 games).
• Zink's last 5 first sets: 3-6, 7-6, 3-6, 6-3, 6-3 (avg 9.4 games).
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 66-71%, limiting quick breaks.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Brancaccio's high first-set conversion rate and Zink's recent slow starts make Brancaccio the likely first-set winner, leveraging his return edge on clay.

• Brancaccio's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, and he won the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
• Zink lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including against Galan and Shick.
• Brancaccio's return points won (43%) and break point conversion (45%) suggest early break potential.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Brancaccio's high double-fault rate makes over 5.5 possible, but Zink's lower rate keeps it near even odds.

• Brancaccio's double-fault rate is 4.7% (1985 DFs in 700 matches), Zink's is 3%.
• In a typical best-of-3, Brancaccio averages ~3-4 DFs, Zink ~2-3.
• Combined, they could exceed 5.5 in a longer match.