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Predictions graded

Pablo Carreno-Busta #65Spain1Felix Auger Aliassime #6Canada2

Sets 3-6 · 6-4 · 1-6Mon 12 Oct 2026, 04:09 Predictions gradedThird RoundHard

Predictions6–650%

Edges2–433%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFelix Auger Aliassime · 59 places

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Spain

Reached a career-high No. 10 on 11 September 2017. ITF lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #65
Peak ranking: #10 · 2017
Current age: 35
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Felix Auger Aliassime

Canada

Auger-Aliassime reached his career-high No. 4 on 8 June 2026 and remains No. 4. ATP and ITF sources identify hard court as his favourite or preferred surface.

Current ranking: #6
Peak ranking: #4 · 2026
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 11 Oct 2026, 23:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Felix Auger-Aliassime is the world No. 6 and fourth seed, yet his hard-court games are level at 129-129 and he needed three sets in his Shanghai opener.

He should still get past Pablo Carreno-Busta, whose two wins here both went the distance. Nothing on Auger-Aliassime at 1.3 is worth backing; the room sits with Carreno-Busta: a 1.5-game start at 2.9, the match at 3.5, the first set at 3.0, the second at 2.9, and a deciding set at 2.6.

Context

In five previous visits to Shanghai, Carreno Busta had never won a main-draw match beyond the second round, so this is already his best result at the event. The route has been long: he has needed three sets in both matches, beating Mariano Navone and then the 29th seed Alejandro Tabilo from a set down. For a 35-year-old ranked outside the top 60, that accumulated court time is the main caveat against reading the run as a sustained return to form.
- Beat Alejandro Tabilo 4-6 7-6(2) 6-4 in the Shanghai second round .
- Prior to 2026 he had not gone beyond the second round in five Shanghai appearances.
- The win followed a 4-6 7-5 6-3 first-round win over Mariano Navone.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:10 · Europe/Bucharesttennistemple.comen.tennistemple.com · 10 Oct 2026
This is the biggest change to Auger-Aliassime's team in years: he had worked with Frederic Fontang since his junior career, and the partnership ended after Wimbledon. Ljubicic, whose best-known work came with Roger Federer, is in the player's corner in Shanghai. The timing is the limitation: a new coach rarely changes results within days, so the appointment is best read as a longer-term project rather than an immediate explanation for form.
- Ivan Ljubicic joined the team with effect from the Shanghai Masters in October 2026.
- The change followed a split with Frederic Fontang after Wimbledon.
- Ljubicic retained an advisory role with the French tennis federation.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:10 · Europe/Bucharest
The fourth seed was pushed to a deciding set by an opponent who had entered the main draw as a lucky loser, and the break-point count shows a large number of chances going unconverted. Against a returner as persistent as Carreno Busta, that inefficiency is the sort of detail that can keep an underdog in a set. It is one match and Auger-Aliassime did recover to win it, so this is a caution rather than evidence of a broader decline.
- Beat Camilo Ugo Carabelli 4-6 7-6(1) 7-5 .
- Recorded 14 aces and converted 2 of 14 break-point chances.
ConfirmedSources checked 11 Oct 2026, 23:10 · Europe/Bucharesttennistemple.comen.tennistemple.com · 10 Oct 2026
The fourth seed has been winning on this surface, but rarely with a short afternoon.
If Auger-Aliassime wins this third-round match, the sample suggests the scoreline may not be a quick one: three of his seven completed hard-court matches went to a deciding set, and three featured a tiebreak. His second sets averaged 5.43 games won against 5.14 lost. That keeps Carreno-Busta, who has also been extended this week, in range for games and sets.
- Seven completed hard-court matches from 16 August to 10 October 2026, averaging 25.29 games per match.
- Three of the seven finished 2-1; three featured a tiebreak.
- Set two averaged 5.43 games won against 5.14 lost in that sample.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
He is the higher-ranked, far bigger server and has won six of nine hard-court matches in the sample.
- Ranked No. 6 against No. 65; 10-5 in his last 15 matches, 6-3 on hard
- Hard-court serve in this sample: 63.1% first serves in, 77.5% first-serve points won, 11.1 aces per match
- Hard-court games are level at 129-129 and total points 50.3%, so his recent wins have been narrow
- Won the only previous meeting 7-6(2) 6-4 in Rotterdam 2020 on indoor hard
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFelix Auger AliassimeEstimated chance66%

Games3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Even in defeat he has been staying within a handful of games on this surface.
- Covers any win plus losses by five games or fewer; only one of his last six hard-court matches ended outside that range
- His two Shanghai wins were three-setters
- Auger-Aliassime's recent hard-court margins were +1, -6, +1, +2, -10, +5
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostPablo Carreno-Busta +5.5Estimated chance81%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A tight scoreline fits both players' recent hard-court results.
- Covers any win plus losses by three games or fewer; three of his last six hard-court matches were decided by four games or fewer
- His two Shanghai wins both went the distance
- Auger-Aliassime has not won a hard-court match by four games since before this stretch
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostPablo Carreno-Busta +3.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Almost every way he wins this match ends with a margin of at least two games.
- Line needs a margin of two games or more; his recent hard-court margins were +1, -6, +1, +2, -10, +5
- His hard-court games stand at 129-129 across nine matches
- Carreno Busta's last six hard-court matches total 80-80 games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonFelix Auger Aliassime -1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in this sample routinely go past nine games.
- Set-two games average: 9.88 (Carreno Busta) and 10.57 (Auger-Aliassime)
- Three of the 15 combined sampled matches had a set-two tiebreak
- Both players' set-two games won averages are at or above five
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both men's opening sets typically reach at least ten games.
- Set-one games average: 10.0 (Carreno Busta) and 10.29 (Auger-Aliassime)
- One set-one tiebreak each in the eight and seven sampled matches
- Most sampled opening sets reached 6-4 or closer
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been playing long, three-set matches in Shanghai this week.
- Combined hard-court set evidence totals 23.25 (Carreno Busta) and 25.29 (Auger-Aliassime) games per match
- Six of 15 combined sampled hard-court matches went to three sets
- Auger-Aliassime's opener produced 35 games
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 24.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
His level tends to rise after the opening set and his second-set games average is the better of the two.
- Hard-court set-two record 4-3 against Carreno Busta's 5-3
- Set-two games average 5.43 won against 5.14 lost
- Two of his seven sampled set twos needed a tiebreak
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostFelix Auger AliassimeEstimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
His serve gives him the better starting position even though his first sets have been uneven.
- Hard-court set-one record: 3-4 for Auger-Aliassime, 4-4 for Carreno Busta
- He won 77.5% of first-serve points on hard courts in the sample
- Carreno Busta has lost the opening set in three of his last five hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFelix Auger AliassimeEstimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-sets finishes are still the more common outcome for both players on this surface.
- Nine of 15 combined sampled hard-court matches finished in straight sets
- Three of Carreno Busta's eight sampled matches were 2-0 wins and two were 0-2 losses
- Two of Auger-Aliassime's seven sampled matches were 2-0 wins
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their completed matches on this surface have been settled without reaching 6-6.
- Ten of 15 combined sampled hard-court matches had no tiebreak
- Set-one and set-two games averages sit near ten games for both players
- The most common sampled scorelines were two-set finishes without a tiebreak
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance62%

Prediction history

Felix Auger Aliassime: 11/15 recent winner projections matched

11 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Felix Auger Aliassime matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Felix Auger Aliassime15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

5 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-2#23Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

BetBugsFelix Auger Aliassime to win·62%

Matched

5 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-2#23Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Felix Auger Aliassime to win

62%probability

Felix Auger Aliassime won

Matched

3 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-0#144Michael Zheng

BetBugsFelix Auger Aliassime to win·82%

Matched

3 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-0#144Michael Zheng

Felix Auger Aliassime to win

82%probability

Felix Auger Aliassime won

Matched

1 Jul·ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-0#89Dino Prizmic

BetBugsFelix Auger Aliassime to win·78%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-0#89Dino Prizmic

Felix Auger Aliassime to win

78%probability

Felix Auger Aliassime won

Matched

29 Jun·ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-0#98Alexander Shevchenko

BetBugsFelix Auger Aliassime to win·82%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

ATP Wimbledon

#4Felix Auger Aliassime3-0#98Alexander Shevchenko

Felix Auger Aliassime to win

82%probability

Felix Auger Aliassime won

Matched

19 Jun·ATP Halle

#26Frances Tiafoe2-1#4Felix Auger Aliassime

BetBugsFelix Auger Aliassime to win·62%

Missed

19 Jun 2026

ATP Halle

#26Frances Tiafoe2-1#4Felix Auger Aliassime

Felix Auger Aliassime to win

62%probability

Frances Tiafoe won

Missed

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L7-6(2) 6-4Pablo Carreno-Busta#65vFelix Auger Aliassime#6Feb 15, 2020

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Pablo Carreno-Busta

7W 8L

4-6 7-6(2) 6-4#30Alejandro Tabilo

4-6 7-5 6-3#47Mariano Navone

6-4 6-2#5Daniil Medvedev

6-3 6-4#83Adrian Mannarino

7-5 6-3#277Yi Zhou

6-1 7-6(5) 4-6 6-2#19Jiri Lehecka

6-4 3-0 ret.#52Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

7-6(5) 6-1#23Andrey Rublev

6-3 6-2#75Tomas Machac

1-6 7-5 6-2#105Valentin Royer

6-3 4-6 6-2#45Luca Van Assche

6-1 6-3#141Vilius Gaubas

3-6 7-5 7-5#77Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-4 6-2#174Matej Dodig

3-6 6-3 1-6 6-3 6-4#13Rafael Jodar

Felix Auger Aliassime

10W 5L

4-6 7-6(1) 7-5#77Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-3 6-3#27Karen Khachanov

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#33Arthur Rinderknech

7-6(5) 4-6 6-3#48Quentin Halys

6-7(5) 6-3 6-2 6-2#27Karen Khachanov

7-5 4-6 6-3 7-5#85Rinky Hijikata

6-3 6-4#8Frances Tiafoe

7-5 6-1#55Juan Manuel Cerundolo

6-3 7-5#43Stefanos Tsitsipas

7-6(10) 3-6 6-3 6-7(4) 7-6(4)#11Novak Djokovic

6-7(4) 7-6(6) 6-3 6-7(2) 6-1#26Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

7-6(1) 6-2 6-1#94Michael Zheng

7-6(2) 6-3 7-5#97Dino Prizmic

6-3 6-1 6-4#111Alexander Shevchenko

3-6 6-3 7-6(12)#8Frances Tiafoe

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PCPablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Felix Auger AliassimeAliassimeFA

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

1st Serve In15/15 · 13/1564.9%—65.5%

1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/1568.3%+11.7pp80.0%

2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/1550.1%+3.7pp46.4%

Aces / Match15/15 · 13/153.6+11.715.3

Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/152.81.8 fewer4.6

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/1538.5%+3.4pp35.1%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/1541.1%+2.3pp38.8%

Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/1561.4%+5.3pp66.7%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/1550.3%+1.3pp51.6%

Serve · 2–2 · 1 even

64.9%1st Serve In15/15 · 13/15—65.5%

68.3%1st Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+11.7pp80.0%

50.1%2nd Serve Won15/15 · 13/15+3.7pp46.4%

3.6Aces / Match15/15 · 13/15+11.715.3

2.8Double Faults / Match15/15 · 13/151.8 fewer4.6

Return · 1–0

38.5%Return Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+3.4pp35.1%

Pressure · 1–1

41.1%Break Pts Converted15/15 · 13/15+2.3pp38.8%

61.4%Break Pts Saved15/15 · 13/15+5.3pp66.7%

Points · 0–1

50.3%Total Pts Won15/15 · 13/15+1.3pp51.6%

Pablo Carreno-Busta #65Spain1Felix Auger Aliassime #6Canada2

Player Profiles

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Felix Auger Aliassime

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Pablo Carreno-Busta +1.5

Over 2.5

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Pablo Carreno-Busta 2-1

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 6 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Felix Auger Aliassime: 11/15 recent winner projections matched

Head-to-Head

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Felix Auger Aliassime

Stat Battle