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Predictions graded

Mirra Andreeva #5Russia2Nikola Bartunkova #34Czechia0

Sets 6-2 · 6-2Sat 10 Oct 2026, 07:07 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions7–370%

Edges2–529%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMirra Andreeva · 29 places

Mirra Andreeva

Russia

First reached her career-high ranking of No. 5 on July 28, 2025 and remains No. 5. The ITF lists clay as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #5
Peak ranking: #5 · 2025
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Nikola Bartunkova

Czechia

Bartunkova is a 20-year-old Czech right-hander. She reached a recorded career-high No. 41 on July 27, 2026.

Current ranking: #34
Peak ranking: #41 · 2026
Current age: 20
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 04:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Andreeva, the No. 5 seed, holds the head-to-head win from the US Open five weeks ago and slightly better hard-court numbers; Bartunkova has beaten the No. 2 and No. 7 seeds in Beijing this week.

Andreeva is the likelier winner, but the 1.38 price does not account for how little separates them. Four prices offer something: Bartunkova +2.5 games at 2.3, over 2.5 sets at 2.4, Bartunkova 2-1 at 5.75 and Bartunkova to win at 3.0.

Context

Sabalenka was the highest-ranked player in Bartůňková's path and the third-round match ended in straight sets, so the form behind her Beijing run rests on a result against an elite opponent rather than a soft draw. She followed it with a three-set win over Sinja Kraus and then a 6-3, 6-0 quarterfinal, which is the clearest available evidence of the level she is bringing into this match. The counterpoint is that the one previous meeting between these two players, at the US Open in September, ended in a straight-sets defeat for her.
- Sabalenka, the No. 2 seed, was beaten 6-4, 6-3 in the third round
- It was Bartůňková's first win over a top-three opponent
- She had beaten Magdalena Frech 6-2, 6-2 in the previous round
- Sinja Kraus then took her to three sets in the round of 16
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 03:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Muchová had just spent nine match points getting past Naomi Osaka, and a 6-3, 6-0 defeat in 67 minutes gave her no chance to recover or settle. The two players are based at the same club in Prague and had never met on tour, so this was a first look at a familiar training partner with a semifinal at stake. It matters for this fixture because Bartůňková beat a top-10 seed without going the distance, which is the test Andreeva now presents. The counterpoint is that Muchová, at 30, plays a more varied, less pace-based game than a top-five baseliner, so that result is limited evidence about how Bartůňková handles Andreeva's ball-striking.
- Muchová, the No. 7 seed, was beaten 6-3, 6-0 in 67 minutes
- It was the first meeting between two players based at the same club in Prague
- Muchová had needed nine match points to get past Naomi Osaka in the previous round
- The win made Bartůňková a WTA 1000 semifinalist for the first time
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 03:57 · Europe/Bucharest
The ranking move is the measure of how quickly her level has changed: she was outside the top 500 and playing ITF events 18 months ago and is now beating the world No. 2 in straight sets at a WTA 1000. A first top-30 place follows directly from this run and changes the quality of draw she can expect for the rest of the season, which is the wider consequence of the result in this match. The limitation is that this is her first WTA 1000 semifinal, so there is no comparable record of how she handles the stage, whereas Andreeva is contesting her fourth.
- She ended 2025 outside the top 100 and arrived at a career-high No. 34
- Eighteen months earlier she was ranked outside the top 500 and playing ITF events
- Her Beijing run ensures a first top-30 ranking
ReportedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 03:57 · Europe/Bucharest
Alexandrova had won both previous meetings without dropping a set, and this time Andreeva led 5-2 in the second set and served for the match at 5-3 before losing four games in a row and needing the tiebreak, so the straight-sets scoreline understates how close the quarterfinal was. The match lasted 1 hour 53 minutes, more than twice as long as Bartůňková's quarterfinal, which is the one clear difference in how the two have prepared for this match. A first win over an opponent she had never beaten before shows she can close out a match that has previously gone against her, which is the same skill this semifinal asks for.
- Alexandrova was beaten 7-6(4), 7-6(3)
- Alexandrova had won both previous meetings without dropping a set
- Andreeva led 5-2 in the second set and served for the match at 5-3 before losing four straight games
- The match lasted 1 hour 53 minutes
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 03:57 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva has a higher ranking, a head-to-head win, and slightly better season-long hard-court return numbers.
- Andreeva is ranked No. 5; Bartunkova is No. 34.
- Andreeva won their only meeting 6-2 7-6(5) on hard court.
- Both are 11-4 in their last 15 hard matches.
- Andreeva leads on total points won (54.6% vs 53.1%) and return points won (47.5% vs 44.0%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance63%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bartunkova has kept most recent matches within four games or won them, and she only lost by five in the head-to-head.
- Bartunkova's hard-court recent game margins: +9, +7, +5, +8, -5, +6.
- This selection needs Bartunkova to lose by 4 games or fewer, or win.
- Andreeva's recent hard margins include +2 and +5 head-to-head.
- Bartunkova is 37% to win the match.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostNikola Bartunkova +4.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva has usually kept the first set short, and the head-to-head first set finished under the line.
- Andreeva's set1 average total games: 8.6.
- Bartunkova's set1 average total games: 9.5.
- Head-to-head first set: 8 games.
- Andreeva's set1 games won average: 5.2.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 1.90
The read
Bartunkova's longer matches and the competitive semifinal setting point to a total around or above the line.
- Andreeva's hard-court average total games: 20.1.
- Bartunkova's hard-court average total games: 23.1.
- Both have played 15 hard matches in the sample.
- Head-to-head total games: 21.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players average around 9.4 games in the second set, and their only meeting went to a second-set tiebreak.
- Andreeva's set2 average total games: 9.4.
- Bartunkova's set2 average total games: 9.4.
- Head-to-head second set: 13 games.
- Both players have had tiebreaks in second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Andreeva has the better first-set record and won the opening set in the head-to-head.
- Andreeva's set1 record on hard: 11-4.
- Bartunkova's set1 record on hard: 10-5.
- Andreeva won the first set 6-2 in their only meeting.
- Andreeva is 63% to win the match.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Andreeva has the stronger second-set record and edged the second set in their previous meeting.
- Andreeva's set2 record on hard: 11-4.
- Bartunkova's set2 record on hard: 9-6.
- Andreeva won the second set 7-6(5) in the head-to-head.
- Andreeva's set2 games won average: 5.6.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance61%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have won a majority of recent hard matches in straight sets, and the head-to-head was 2-0.
- Andreeva's hard-court scorelines: 2-0 in 9 of 15.
- Bartunkova's hard-court scorelines: 2-0 in 6 of 15.
- Andreeva's average sets per match: 2.27.
- Head-to-head was decided in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance53%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of both players' recent hard-court matches have finished without a tiebreak.
- Andreeva's hard-court matches with a tiebreak: 4 of 15.
- Bartunkova's hard-court matches with a tiebreak: 5 of 15.
- Most of their recent hard matches had no tiebreak.
- Bartunkova won her last two matches in straight sets without a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' double-fault rates are modest and combine to fewer than eight per match on average.
- Andreeva averages 3.5 double faults per match.
- Bartunkova averages 3.7 double faults per match.
- Combined average: 7.2 double faults.
- Andreeva's first-serve percentage is 64.4%.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 7.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined ace rate sits slightly under the line, and Andreeva's serve is more about placement than power.
- Andreeva averages 3.3 aces per match.
- Bartunkova averages 5.0 aces per match.
- Combined average: 8.3 aces.
- Andreeva's first-serve percentage is 64.4%.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 8.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Mirra Andreeva: 12/15 recent winner projections matched

12 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Mirra Andreeva matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Mirra Andreeva15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#38Barbora Krejcikova2-1#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·62%

Missed

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#38Barbora Krejcikova2-1#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

62%probability

Barbora Krejcikova won

Missed

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#58Magda Linette0-2#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·72%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#58Magda Linette0-2#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

72%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

24 Jun·WTA Bad Homburg

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova2-0#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·65%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

WTA Bad Homburg

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova2-0#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

65%probability

Ekaterina Alexandrova won

Missed

6 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska0-2#8Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·85%

Matched

6 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska0-2#8Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

85%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

2 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#8Mirra Andreeva2-0#18Sorana Cirstea

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·72%

Matched

2 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#8Mirra Andreeva2-0#18Sorana Cirstea

Mirra Andreeva to win

72%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-2 7-6(5)Mirra Andreeva#5vNikola Bartunkova#34Sep 5, 2026

1 total meetings

Previous match context available

Mirra Andreeva

11W 4L

7-6(4) 7-6(3)#28Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-2 6-2#46Daria Snigur

6-4 6-1#104Polina Kudermetova 3-6 6-0 6-0#135Yue Yuan

6-2 7-5#26Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-2 6-2#121Aliaksandra Sasnovich

2-6 7-6(7) 6-2#4Cori Gauff

5-7 6-4 6-3#25Anastasia Potapova

6-2 7-6(5)#34Nikola Bartunkova

6-0 6-2#102Eva Lys

6-2 6-2#49Janice Tjen

4-6 6-0 6-2#10Marta Kostyuk

6-1 7-6(5)#49Janice Tjen

6-1 6-0#47Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-1 6-4#26Leylah Annie Fernandez

Nikola Bartunkova

11W 4L

6-3 6-0#8Karolina Muchova

6-0 4-6 6-3#95Sinja Kraus

6-4 6-3#2Aryna Sabalenka 6-2 6-2#48Magdalena Frech

6-2 7-6(5)#5Mirra Andreeva

6-7(5) 6-2 6-3#84Tatjana Maria

6-1 6-2#52Mayar Sherif

1-6 6-4 6-2#19Elise Mertens

6-4 6-7(3) 6-3#88Darja Vidmanova

6-7(4) 7-5 6-4#312En Shuo Liang

6-4 6-3#83Antonia Ruzic

7-6(5) 6-3#16Sorana Cirstea

4-6 6-4 6-3#118Alina Charaeva

3-6 6-0 6-4#11Amanda Anisimova

6-3 6-4#44Clara Tauson

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MAMirra AndreevaAndreeva

Last 15

4–4

9 core stats · 1 even

Nikola BartunkovaBartunkovaNB

Dead-even recent form — the edges are in serve.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In64.4%+14.0pp50.4%

1st Serve Won70.1%+1.6pp71.7%

2nd Serve Won47.5%+5.5pp53.0%

Aces / Match3.3+1.75.0

Double Faults / Match3.5—3.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won47.5%+3.5pp44.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted52.9%+8.0pp44.9%

Break Pts Saved55.0%+5.4pp60.4%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won54.6%+1.5pp53.1%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

64.4%1st Serve In+14.0pp50.4%

70.1%1st Serve Won+1.6pp71.7%

47.5%2nd Serve Won+5.5pp53.0%

3.3Aces / Match+1.75.0

3.5Double Faults / Match—3.7

Return · 1–0

47.5%Return Pts Won+3.5pp44.0%

Pressure · 1–1

52.9%Break Pts Converted+8.0pp44.9%

55.0%Break Pts Saved+5.4pp60.4%

Points · 1–0

54.6%Total Pts Won+1.5pp53.1%

Mirra Andreeva #5Russia2Nikola Bartunkova #34Czechia0

Player Profiles

Mirra Andreeva

Nikola Bartunkova

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Nikola Bartunkova +2.5

Over 2.5

Nikola Bartunkova

Nikola Bartunkova 2-1

Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva

Over 21.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Mirra Andreeva: 12/15 recent winner projections matched

Head-to-Head

Mirra Andreeva

Nikola Bartunkova

Stat Battle