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Predictions graded

Alibek Kachmazov #525Russia2Omar Jasika #422Australia0

Sets 7-6 · 6-3Sat 10 Oct 2026, 04:21 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalHard

Predictions7–278%

Edges2–167%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOmar Jasika · 103 places

Alibek Kachmazov

Russia

Kachmazov reached a career-best singles ranking of No. 161 in May 2025. ITF lists hard courts as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #525
Peak ranking: #161 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: I.hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Omar Jasika

Australia

Jasika, 29, is the left-hander in this matchup. His recorded professional match volume has been predominantly on hard courts.

Current ranking: #422
Peak ranking: #155 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 15:09 · Europe/Bucharest

An unbeaten qualifier meets the higher-ranked left-hander for a place in the Wuning 3 final.

Kachmazov's 15-match hard-court run and 30 of 32 sets make him the likely winner, but Jasika at 2.75 is the one quoted price that offers anything; Kachmazov's 1.45 first-set and 1.5 second-set quotes ask more than the form supports.

Context

Kachmazov was placed outside the main draw and had to win two qualifying matches before the first round, so his semi-final place comes from five completed matches at the event rather than a protected seeding. The run matters because he has already beaten top-300 opposition in Charles Broom and the home player Fajing Sun on the same hard court. His ranking of No. 525 and the lower-tier events that supplied much of his recent record are the limiting factor when judging how the form translates here.
- Listed as a qualifier (Q) in the Wuning 3 main draw against fourth seed Charles Broom
- Beat Evan Zhu 7-6(6) 7-6(5) to reach the quarter-finals
- Beat Fajing Sun 6-3 6-4 in the quarter-final
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 15:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Broom entered as the fourth seed at No. 268, and Kachmazov beat him 4-6 7-6(5) 6-4 after losing the opening set, so the qualifier's week includes a win over seeded opposition ranked more than 250 places above him. That result is the strongest evidence that his ranking understates his current hard-court level. The counterpoint is that he needed a second-set tiebreak to stay in the match, so the win was narrow and required a three-set recovery.
- Broom was the fourth seed and ranked No. 268
- Kachmazov won 4-6 7-6(5) 6-4
- Broom was the only seed Kachmazov has beaten in the run
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 15:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Sharipov entered Wuning 3 as the second seed at No. 234, and Jasika was ahead 6-3 3-0 when the Russian retired, giving Jasika a short second-round match before a straight-sets quarter-final. That matters because it trims Jasika's accumulated court time relative to Kachmazov and removed the highest-ranked seed from his section. The limitation is that a retirement win cannot be read as a completed upset of a seeded player, so it counts for progression rather than as a full-form statement.
- Marat Sharipov was the second seed and ranked No. 234
- Jasika led 6-3 3-0 when Sharipov retired
- Jasika beat Timofei Derepasko 6-3 6-2 in the quarter-final
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 15:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Kachmazov has competed on five of the six days from 4 to, adding two qualifying rounds to a three-set first round and a second round decided by two tiebreaks. The cumulative load is larger than Jasika's three main-draw matches, one of which ended early through retirement and another in straight sets. The relevance is that a semi-final on this schedule tests recovery rather than offering a fresh start. Kachmazov did have one rest day, the 7th, so the schedule gap is real but not extreme.
- Kachmazov played on 4, 5, 6, 8 and
- First round finished 4-6 7-6(5) 6-4
- Second round finished 7-6(6) 7-6(5)
ReportedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 15:08 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Alibek Kachmazov

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

−4.7ppshort

Kachmazov has been near-unbeatable in second sets during this hard-court stretch.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Alibek Kachmazov

1.45fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69%

−9.0ppshort

Kachmazov has been the stronger starter throughout this run and regularly takes the opening set.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kachmazov has not lost in this hard-court run and has kept his serve and return numbers high against similar Challenger opposition.
- 15-0 in the tracked hard-court sample, winning 30 of 32 sets
- 81.5% first-serve points won and 83.3% of break points saved
- Beat fourth seed Charles Broom (No. 268) and Fajing Sun (No. 303) this week
- Jasika is ranked No. 422 and lost recent matches to No. 112 and No. 170
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance60%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets for both men are settled with a comfortable margin more often than not, keeping the total low.
- Kachmazov's second sets average 9.4 games
- Jasika's second sets average 8.92 games
- Jasika has had no second-set tiebreaks in the sample
- Both players win second sets with roughly a three-game margin
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players tend to finish in straight sets with around 20 games per match, leaving the total just under this line.
- Kachmazov's tracked hard-court matches average 20.2 games
- Jasika's tracked hard-court matches average 20.1 games
- Kachmazov won 13 of 15 matches in straight sets
- Jasika has won 8 of 9 completed wins in straight sets
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 20.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets sit just above nine and a half games on average.
- Kachmazov's first sets average 9.67 total games
- Jasika's first sets average 9.54 total games
- Kachmazov's first sets include three tiebreaks in 15 matches
- Jasika has had two first-set tiebreaks in 13
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The set counts for both players point strongly to a match finished in two sets.
- Kachmazov has won 13 of 15 tracked matches 2-0
- Jasika's completed results are 8 wins 2-0 against 1 win 2-1
- Neither player averages above 2.2 sets per match
- Kachmazov has lost only 2 sets across 15 matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Kachmazov has been near-unbeatable in second sets during this hard-court stretch.
- Kachmazov has won all 15 tracked second sets on hard court
- He wins 6.2 second-set games on average while losing 3.2
- Jasika has lost the second set in 3 of 13 matches
- Kachmazov has lost only 2 sets in total across the sample
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Kachmazov has been the stronger starter throughout this run and regularly takes the opening set.
- Kachmazov has won the first set in 13 of 15 tracked hard-court matches
- Jasika has won the first set in 8 of 13
- Kachmazov's first-set records come with 6.07 games won on average
- Jasika averages 4.46 first-set games lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonAlibek KachmazovEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The large majority of these two players' hard-court matches have finished without a tiebreak.
- Kachmazov had no tiebreak in 11 of 15 hard-court matches
- Jasika had no tiebreak in 11 of 13
- Neither player averages above 4.2 sets per three matches worth of tiebreak play
- Straight-set, margin wins dominate both records
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance75%

Previous match context available

Alibek Kachmazov

15W 0L

6-3 6-4#303Fajing Sun

7-6(6) 7-6(5)#479Evan Zhu

4-6 7-6(5) 6-4#268Charles Broom

6-1 6-1#865Grigoriy Lomakin

6-1 6-2—Yan Lang Chen

6-3 6-4#752Kuan-Shou Chen

6-1 6-3#674Mukund Sasikumar

7-6(4) 6-2#898Sheng Tang

6-3 6-3#595Chase Ferguson

6-2 6-2—Xirui Han

6-3 6-4#756Yunseong Chung

6-4 7-5#651Nikolai Barsukov

6-3 6-4#586Robin Catry

7-5 6-1#896Qian Sun

6-7(3) 6-1 6-1—Shaoyun Liu

Omar Jasika

10W 5L

6-3 6-2#662Timofei Derepasko

6-3 3-0 ret.#234Marat Sharipov (RUS)

4-6 6-3 7-5#869Martin Borisiouk

6-2 3-6 6-3#112Dane Sweeny

6-4 6-4#505Hiroki Moriya

6-3 6-1#595Chase Ferguson

6-4 6-3#170Alex Bolt

6-7(6) 6-2 1-0 ret.#455Luca Castelnuovo

6-4 6-4#234Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-2 7-5#221Rio Noguchi

6-2 6-1#424Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

7-6(7) 6-3#893Yaojie Zeng

6-2 6-3#324Akira Santillan

6-2 6-3#661Filip Peliwo

7-6(0) 6-2#891Aoran Wang

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

AKAlibek KachmazovKachmazov

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Omar JasikaJasikaOJ

Alibek Kachmazov carries the stronger recent form — Omar Jasika's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In52.6%+22.9pp75.5%

1st Serve Won81.5%+12.2pp69.3%

2nd Serve Won58.2%+2.8pp55.4%

Aces / Match9.2+7.41.8

Double Faults / Match2.50.8 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won42.4%+3.4pp39.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted47.5%+3.8pp51.3%

Break Pts Saved83.3%+16.2pp67.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won56.1%+3.3pp52.8%

Serve · 3–2

52.6%1st Serve In+22.9pp75.5%

81.5%1st Serve Won+12.2pp69.3%

58.2%2nd Serve Won+2.8pp55.4%

9.2Aces / Match+7.41.8

2.5Double Faults / Match0.8 fewer1.7

Return · 1–0

42.4%Return Pts Won+3.4pp39.0%

Pressure · 1–1

47.5%Break Pts Converted+3.8pp51.3%

83.3%Break Pts Saved+16.2pp67.1%

Points · 1–0

56.1%Total Pts Won+3.3pp52.8%