ChinaWuning - ChinaFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Timofei Derepasko #662Russia0Omar Jasika #422Australia2

Sets 3-6 · 2-6Fri 9 Oct 2026, 03:11 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions4–544%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageOmar Jasika · 240 places

Timofei Derepasko

Russia

Derepasko, 19, is the right-hander in this matchup. His highest ranking, No. 634, came in June 2026.

Current ranking: #662
Peak ranking: #634 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Omar Jasika

Australia

Jasika, 29, is the left-hander in this matchup. His recorded professional match volume has been predominantly on hard courts.

Current ranking: #422
Peak ranking: #155 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Oct 2026, 03:27 · Europe/Bucharest

First Challenger quarter-final for 19-year-old Derepasko against a left-hander ranked 240 places higher.

Derepasko's hard-court form — seven wins from nine — makes him the likelier winner, and three quoted prices offer something: Derepasko at 3.5, Derepasko 2-0 at 6.5 and Derepasko for the first set at 3.0. Jasika's 1.25, 1.33 and 1.75 quotes ask for more than his form justifies.

Context

Jasika advanced without finishing his round of 16, so he reaches this quarterfinal with a short, low-cost day on court while Derepasko needed 1 hour 56 minutes to win his. With the quarterfinal following two days after both round-of-16 matches, that is the clearest physical contrast in the fixture. Jasika was already a set and a break up on the tournament's second seed, ranked No. 234, when the retirement came, so he held the better of the match before it ended.
- Jasika led second seed Marat Sharipov 6-3, 3-0 when Sharipov retired in the round of 16
- Sharipov is ranked No. 234 and was the second seed at the Wuning 3 Challenger
ReportedSources checked 8 Oct 2026, 03:25 · Europe/Bucharest
The opening set is the passage of his game that has held up best in the current sample, and it has been decided in regulation every time — a useful quality against a left-hander whose own first sets have been close. His second sets are less dominant: six of nine won, with a 5.22 to 4.44 game margin, so the middle set is the more plausible point of resistance.
- Hard-court set evidence: 9 completed matches, 6 September to 7 October 2026; first set won in 7, lost in 2.
- Set 1 games: 5.56 won and 3.67 lost per match, with 0 first-set tiebreaks.
- Set 2 games: 5.22 won and 4.44 lost, with 2 tiebreaks; 0 retirements in the sample.
The rest of that recent list leans on wins over No. 661 Filip Peliwo and No. 763 Taisei Ichikawa, plus a straight-sets loss to No. 154 Ilia Simakin, so this one result is the best evidence that the 19-year-old can handle an opponent inside the top 500. It is still a single match, and Jasika at No. 422 is a step above anything Derepasko has beaten in the window, which is why the ranking gap stays the central risk.
- 5 October 2026: beat Sergey Fomin (No. 294) 6-2, 7-6(6) on hard court, 13 games won to 8.
- One match; the second set was decided 7-6(6).
Two first-set tiebreaks in the sample show how tight his openings have been, with a margin of 0.23 games per match, while his second sets are settled by roughly a game and a half more. Against a player whose own first sets have gone 7-2, that makes the opening set the least settled stage of this quarter-final and the second set the place where he has more often pulled clear.
- 13 completed hard-court matches, 27 August to 6 October 2026; 2 retirements excluded.
- Set 1: won 7, lost 6, averaging 4.92 games to 4.69, with 2 tiebreaks.
- Set 2: won 9, lost 4, averaging 5.23 games to 3.77; average 2.15 sets per match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.50
The read
Derepasko has won seven of nine hard-court matches with the stronger serve and point-winning numbers of the two.
- Hard-court record 7-2, with 52.5% of total points and 57.2% of games won
- First-serve points won 73.8% and 5.9 aces per match on hard
- Recent hard wins over Peliwo (661) and Fomin (294), 13-9 and 13-8 in games
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTimofei DerepaskoEstimated chance52%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in both samples average below ten games, with tiebreaks rare.
- Derepasko's first sets average 9.22 total games
- Jasika's first sets average 9.62 total games
- Only two first-set tiebreaks across the combined 22 matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' hard-court matches sit right around this line, with Jasika's recent matches skewed to longer totals.
- Derepasko hard-court matches average 20.0 total games; Jasika's average 20.2
- Jasika's last six hard-court matches totalled 31, 26, 20, 16, 19 and 20 games
- Derepasko's four most recent hard-court matches totalled 22, 21, 19 and 21 games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jasika's second sets have finished quickly, pulling the combined expectation just under the line.
- Jasika's second sets average 9.0 total games
- Derepasko's second sets average 9.67 total games
- No second-set tiebreaks in Jasika's 13 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set results account for almost every match in both hard-court samples.
- Derepasko's hard-court scorelines: six 2-0 wins, two 0-2 losses, one 2-1 win
- Jasika's hard-court scorelines: seven 2-0 wins, four 0-2 losses, one 2-1 win, one 1-2 loss
- Average sets per match 2.11 for Derepasko and 2.15 for Jasika
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.00
The read
Derepasko has started strongly on hard courts, taking the first set in seven of nine matches.
- Won the opening set in 7 of 9 hard-court matches
- Set 1 games average 5.56 won and 3.67 lost
- No first-set tiebreaks in those nine matches
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostTimofei DerepaskoEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derepasko has a solid second-set record, though with a narrower game margin than his first sets.
- Won the second set in 6 of 9 hard-court matches
- Set 2 games average 5.22 won and 4.44 lost
- Two second-set tiebreaks in that sample
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostTimofei DerepaskoEstimated chance52%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been rare in both players' hard-court matches this season.
- Tiebreaks appeared in 2 of Derepasko's 9 hard-court matches and 2 of Jasika's 13
- Derepasko's first sets average 9.22 games with no first-set tiebreaks
- Jasika's second sets average 9.0 games with no second-set tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance73%

Previous match context available

Timofei Derepasko

9W 6L

6-3 7-6(10)#661Filip Peliwo 6-2 7-6(4)#294Sergey Fomin

6-3 6-2—Matic Dimic

2-6 7-6(2) 6-4#846Francesco Ferrari

6-4 6-3#154Ilia Simakin

7-5 6-3#763Taisei Ichikawa

6-3 6-3—Stefan Storch

6-3 6-2#331Cruz Hewitt

6-3 4-6 6-4#852Sam Ryan Ziegann

6-3 6-4#881Taiyo Yamanaka

6-2 6-0—Minhthien Nguyen

6-4 6-3—Dimitar Kisimov

6-3 6-0#889Alessandro Bellifemine

6-2 6-1—Egor Shcherbakov

6-0 6-2#310Sean Cuenin

Omar Jasika

9W 6L

6-3 3-0 ret.#234Marat Sharipov (RUS)4-6 6-3 7-5#869Martin Borisiouk

6-2 3-6 6-3#112Dane Sweeny

6-4 6-4#505Hiroki Moriya

6-3 6-1#595Chase Ferguson

6-4 6-3#170Alex Bolt

6-7(6) 6-2 1-0 ret.#455Luca Castelnuovo

6-4 6-4#234Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-2 7-5#221Rio Noguchi

6-2 6-1#424Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong

7-6(7) 6-3#893Yaojie Zeng

6-2 6-3#324Akira Santillan

6-2 6-3#661Filip Peliwo

7-6(0) 6-2#891Aoran Wang

6-4 6-3#752Kuan-Shou Chen

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

TDTimofei DerepaskoDerepasko

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Omar JasikaJasikaOJ

Omar Jasika carries the stronger recent form — Timofei Derepasko's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In52.1%+22.5pp74.6%

1st Serve Won71.8%+3.9pp67.9%

2nd Serve Won47.2%+8.4pp55.6%

Aces / Match4.7+3.01.7

Double Faults / Match3.31.4 fewer1.9

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.6%+3.4pp38.2%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted44.8%+9.5pp54.3%

Break Pts Saved60.0%+4.6pp64.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.2%—51.9%

Serve · 2–3

52.1%1st Serve In+22.5pp74.6%

71.8%1st Serve Won+3.9pp67.9%

47.2%2nd Serve Won+8.4pp55.6%

4.7Aces / Match+3.01.7

3.3Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer1.9

Return · 1–0

41.6%Return Pts Won+3.4pp38.2%

Pressure · 0–2

44.8%Break Pts Converted+9.5pp54.3%

60.0%Break Pts Saved+4.6pp64.6%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.2%Total Pts Won—51.9%

Timofei Derepasko

Omar Jasika

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Timofei Derepasko

Timofei Derepasko

Timofei Derepasko 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Timofei Derepasko

Omar Jasika

Stat Battle