ItalyPalermo - ItalyFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Enrico Dalla Valle #319Italy0Francesco Passaro #229Italy2

Sets 3-6 · 4-6Fri 9 Oct 2026, 19:32 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalClay

Predictions3–633%

Edges0–30%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFrancesco Passaro · 90 places

Enrico Dalla Valle

Italy

Italian clay-court player; the ITF lists clay as his preferred surface. He reached a career-high ATP singles ranking of No. 242 on 24 June 2024.

Current ranking: #319
Peak ranking: #242 · 2024
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Francesco Passaro

Italy

Italian right-hander from Perugia whose career-high singles ranking is No. 89, reached in February 2025. Official ITF profile data lists clay as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #229
Peak ranking: #89 · 2025
Current age: 25
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Oct 2026, 03:11 · Europe/Bucharest

A Palermo quarterfinal on clay between two Italians: fourth seed Passaro is ranked 90 places higher and serves well on this surface, but Dalla Valle has the better clay results in this window and won his round-of-16 match in straight sets.

Dalla Valle is the sporting lean, and three reviewed prices back him: 1.95 for the first set, 1.95 for the second and 2.00 for the match.

Context

Both men won on the same day, but the load was not equal: Passaro needed three sets and more than two hours to close out Caniato, while Dalla Valle's straight-sets win was finished inside 1h46. Across a one-day turnaround at Challenger 50 level, the extra set and roughly half an hour are a modest recovery difference rather than a decisive one. Pedigree points the other way: Passaro sits at No. 229 with a career-high of No. 89, meeting a clay specialist ranked No. 319 whose two Palermo wins this week both came in straight sets.
- Passaro, seeded fourth, beat wild card Carlo Alberto Caniato 4-6 6-3 6-4 in 2h22 to reach the quarterfinals
- Dalla Valle beat Gabriele Piraino 6-4 6-3 in 1h46 in the same round
- Both round-of-16 wins were played on clay
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Oct 2026, 03:09 · Europe/BucharestTennisTalkermagazine.tennistalker.it · 8 Oct 2026
Dalla Valle tends to settle clay matches early, whether the result goes his way or not.
Dalla Valle's clay profile is binary: when he wins, he usually does it without a third set, and when he loses, it is often 0-2. His matches average 2.29 sets and 22.36 games, so a three-setter is the less likely shape here. Passaro, by contrast, has gone the distance in five of his 11 clay matches, which is the main argument against a quick finish.
- 14 completed clay best-of-three matches tracked for Dalla Valle between 27 July and 8 October 2026
- Six 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses in that sample
- Average 22.36 total games and 2.29 sets per match
Piros stood 205 places above Dalla Valle in the rankings, and the straight-set margin makes this the standout result in his 14-match clay sample. It supports the case that his No. 319 ranking understates his level on this surface. The counterweight is his next clay match on 2 October, a 1-6 2-6 loss to Juan Cruz Martin Manzano, ranked 382.
- 30 September 2026: Dalla Valle beat Zsombor Piros (No. 114) 6-4 6-2 on clay
- Games won 12-6 in that match
- Part of a 14-match clay sample running from 27 July to 8 October 2026
Passaro is more likely than Dalla Valle to be pushed deep into a match, which raises the chance this quarterfinal runs long. He has also lost 0-2 in four of his six clay defeats in this window. That pattern keeps a deciding set firmly in play and is the chief counterweight to the idea of a quick, one-sided finish.
- 11 completed clay best-of-three matches tracked from 13 July to 8 October 2026
- Three 2-1 wins and two 1-2 defeats in that sample
- Four of his six clay defeats were straight-set losses (0-2)

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Dalla Valle has the stronger recent clay set and game record, including a straight-set win over a higher-ranked opponent, which offsets the ranking gap.
- Dalla Valle is 8-6 in completed clay best-of-3 matches in the sample, with set 1 and set 2 records of 8-6 each.
- Passaro is 5-6 on clay in the same window and has won 44.4% of sets (12/27) and 48.1% of games (124/258).
- Passaro is ranked 229 and seeded fourth, 90 places above Dalla Valle at 319.
- Dalla Valle beat Piros (ranked 114) 6-4 6-2 on clay, while Passaro lost to Juan Mano (593) in three sets.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostEnrico Dalla ValleEstimated chance54%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets in this sample average under 9.5 games, and Passaro's second-set game differential is negative.
- Passaro's second sets average 9.27 total games on clay.
- Dalla Valle's second sets average 9.57 total games on clay.
- Passaro has lost second sets 6-4 and 6-3 in recent clay matches.
- Passaro's second-set games average is 4.27 won and 5.00 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in this sample average near 10 games, and Dalla Valle has had several long opening sets.
- Dalla Valle's first sets average 9.93 total games on clay.
- Passaro's first sets average 9.64 total games on clay.
- Dalla Valle has had 4 first-set tiebreaks in 14 clay matches.
- Passaro has had 1 first-set tiebreak in 11 clay matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
A Dalla Valle straight-set win likely keeps the total near or below 22.5, and he is the side with more straight-set wins.
- Dalla Valle's clay matches average 22.36 total games; Passaro's average 23.45.
- Dalla Valle's straight-set wins include 12-7 and 13-6 game totals.
- Passaro has lost 0-2 in four of his six clay defeats, with totals of 19 and 19 games in two examples.
- Dalla Valle has 10 straight-set results in 14 clay matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 22.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Dalla Valle has won more first sets and holds a positive first-set game differential on clay.
- Dalla Valle has an 8-6 first-set record in clay best-of-3 matches.
- Passaro has a 4-7 first-set record in the same sample.
- Dalla Valle's first-set games average is 5.29 won and 4.64 lost.
- Passaro's first-set games average is 4.73 won and 4.91 lost.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostEnrico Dalla ValleEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dalla Valle often wins in straight sets, and his recent win over Piraino was 6-4 6-3.
- Dalla Valle has finished 10 of 14 clay matches in straight sets.
- Passaro has finished 6 of 11 clay matches in straight sets.
- Dalla Valle's clay scorelines include six 2-0 wins and four 0-2 losses.
- Passaro has lost 0-2 in four of his six clay defeats.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Dalla Valle has the better second-set record and game margin on clay.
- Dalla Valle has an 8-6 second-set record in clay best-of-3 matches.
- Passaro has a 5-6 second-set record in the same sample.
- Dalla Valle's second-set games average is 5.21 won and 4.36 lost.
- Passaro's second-set games average is 4.27 won and 5.00 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostEnrico Dalla ValleEstimated chance56%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have appeared in a minority of their clay matches, so a match without one is more likely.
- Dalla Valle has avoided a tiebreak in 8 of 14 clay matches.
- Passaro has avoided a tiebreak in 8 of 11 clay matches.
- Combined, 16 of 25 completed clay matches had no tiebreak.
- Passaro has had only one first-set tiebreak in 11 clay matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%

Prediction history

Enrico Dalla Valle: 9/12 recent winner projections matched

9 of 12 comparable winner projections favouring Enrico Dalla Valle matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Enrico Dalla Valle12 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

28 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#352Mili Poljicak2-0#323Enrico Dalla Valle

BetBugsEnrico Dalla Valle to win·62%

28 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#352Mili Poljicak2-0#323Enrico Dalla Valle

Enrico Dalla Valle to win

62%probability

Mili Poljicak won

27 Jul·San Marino - San Marino

#323Enrico Dalla Valle2-0#420Mika Brunold

BetBugsEnrico Dalla Valle to win·62%

27 Jul 2026

San Marino - San Marino

#323Enrico Dalla Valle2-0#420Mika Brunold

Enrico Dalla Valle to win

62%probability

Enrico Dalla Valle won

7 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#212Federico Agustin Gomez2-1#359Enrico Dalla Valle

BetBugsEnrico Dalla Valle to win·62%

7 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#212Federico Agustin Gomez2-1#359Enrico Dalla Valle

Enrico Dalla Valle to win

62%probability

Federico Agustin Gomez won

1 Jul·Milan - Italy

#185Francesco Passaro0-2#359Enrico Dalla Valle

BetBugsEnrico Dalla Valle to win·62%

1 Jul 2026

Milan - Italy

#185Francesco Passaro0-2#359Enrico Dalla Valle

Enrico Dalla Valle to win

62%probability

Enrico Dalla Valle won

30 Jun·Milan - Italy

#359Enrico Dalla Valle2-0#130Stefano Travaglia

BetBugsEnrico Dalla Valle to win·55%

30 Jun 2026

Milan - Italy

#359Enrico Dalla Valle2-0#130Stefano Travaglia

Enrico Dalla Valle to win

55%probability

Enrico Dalla Valle won

Previous match context available

Enrico Dalla Valle

8W 7L

6-4 6-3#392Gabriele Piraino

6-1 7-5#528Luca Potenza 6-1 6-2#382Juan Cruz Martin Manzano

6-4 6-2#114Zsombor Piros

2-6 6-3 6-2#271Buvaysar Gadamauri

6-4 7-6(5)#164Tom Gentzsch

3-6 7-6(4) 6-3#410Pavel Lagutin

6-7(4) 6-2 7-6(5)#174Matej Dodig

6-7(3) 6-1 6-4#173Stefano Travaglia

6-2 6-1—Gabriele Crivellaro

7-6(2) 6-2#312Oriol Roca Batalla

6-3 6-4#491Niels Mcdonald

7-6(2) 4-0 ret.#279Juan Bautista Torres

7-6(6) 7-6(2)#286Mili Poljicak

6-3 6-3#261Mika Brunold

Francesco Passaro

8W 7L

4-6 6-3 6-4#318Carlo Alberto Caniato 6-1 7-6(4)#312Oriol Roca Batalla

0-6 7-6(4) 6-1#593Alejandro Juan Mano

7-5 6-1#200Juan Pablo Varillas

3-6 6-4 6-4#87Lorenzo Sonego

2-6 6-2 4-6 6-3 6-2#95Jesper De Jong

6-4 6-2#123Shintaro Mochizuki

7-6(4) 6-4#164Tom Gentzsch

7-6(3) 6-2#222Felix Gill

6-4 6-1#351Nicolas Kicker

6-4 6-1#312Oriol Roca Batalla

4-6 6-4 6-4#318Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-3 6-4#91Jan Choinski

6-7(5) 6-1 7-6(4)#263Dominic Stricker

6-4 6-3#257Martin Krumich

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EVEnrico Dalla ValleValle

Last 15

6–3

9 core stats · 0 even

Francesco PassaroPassaroFP

Enrico Dalla Valle carries the stronger recent form — Francesco Passaro's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In64.7%+3.8pp60.9%

1st Serve Won71.9%+1.2pp70.7%

2nd Serve Won52.7%+1.5pp51.2%

Aces / Match3.6+0.94.5

Double Faults / Match1.42.2 fewer3.6

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won36.4%+0.8pp37.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted58.8%+18.4pp40.4%

Break Pts Saved58.0%+6.2pp64.2%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.0%+0.9pp50.1%

Serve · 4–1

64.7%1st Serve In+3.8pp60.9%

71.9%1st Serve Won+1.2pp70.7%

52.7%2nd Serve Won+1.5pp51.2%

3.6Aces / Match+0.94.5

1.4Double Faults / Match2.2 fewer3.6

Return · 0–1

36.4%Return Pts Won+0.8pp37.2%

Pressure · 1–1

58.8%Break Pts Converted+18.4pp40.4%

58.0%Break Pts Saved+6.2pp64.2%

Points · 1–0

51.0%Total Pts Won+0.9pp50.1%