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Predictions graded

Ekaterina Alexandrova #28Russia0Mirra Andreeva #5Russia2

Sets 6-7 · 6-7Thu 8 Oct 2026, 11:02 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions5–550%

Edges2–529%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMirra Andreeva · 23 places

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Russia

Currently ranked No. 19 in the WTA rankings as of 20 July 2026. Reached a career-high No. 10 in October 2025.

Current ranking: #28
Peak ranking: #10 · 2025
Current age: 31
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Mirra Andreeva

Russia

First reached her career-high ranking of No. 5 on July 28, 2025 and remains No. 5. The ITF lists clay as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #5
Peak ranking: #5 · 2025
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Oct 2026, 15:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Andreeva is world No. 5 and the more efficient hard-court player this season, yet she has never taken a set off Alexandrova, who won both previous meetings and beat Wimbledon champion Noskova 6-2 6-2 to set up this Beijing quarterfinal.

The 1.3 on Andreeva to win the match is short of what that record justifies. Six quoted selections carry value, headed by Alexandrova at 3.5 to win and 3.0 in each of the first two sets.

Context

These are the only two completed matches between them and the most recent comes from this season, so the pattern is current rather than historical. Neither match reached a deciding set, which points to a matchup that has consistently favoured Alexandrova rather than to one close loss. The limitation is that neither meeting was played on an outdoor hard court, so this quarterfinal is a genuinely different test of whether the pattern holds.
- Stuttgart, second round 2025: Alexandrova won 6-3 6-2
- Bad Homburg, second round 2026: Alexandrova won 6-3 6-4
- Both meetings finished in straight sets, with no completed decider between them
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 15:24 · Europe/Bucharest
The result matters as a form signal because Noskova arrived as the reigning Wimbledon champion and last year's runner-up at this event, having won her previous five matches. Alexandrova's route through the match was her serve: she was not broken across 66 minutes and Noskova converted none of her four break points. One dominant serving day is a narrow base for projecting the next round, and success against a grass-court champion does not transfer automatically to Beijing's hard courts.
- 6-2 6-2 over fifth seed Linda Noskova in the China Open round of 16
- Alexandrova was not broken and Noskova converted none of her four break points
- Noskova arrived in Beijing on a five-match winning streak since the US Open
- Alexandrova's 22nd career win over a top-10 opponent
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 15:24 · Europe/Bucharest
The record concerns this specific venue: Alexandrova had never been past the round of 16 in Beijing, and at 31 she is the oldest player to break that barrier since the event began in 2004. It also extends a career pattern of deep runs at WTA 1000 level, with this her seventh quarterfinal at that tier. The milestone describes the occasion rather than the level she is producing week to week, so it is context for the fixture rather than an indicator for the quarterfinal itself.
- Oldest player to reach a first China Open quarterfinal since the event's inception in 2004
- Seventh career WTA 1000 quarterfinal
- First time past the round of 16 in Beijing
ConfirmedSources checked 7 Oct 2026, 15:24 · Europe/Bucharest
Alexandrova, 31 and ranked No. 28, has been taken to a third set in eight of her 13 hard-court matches this season, with five of her nine wins there going the distance.
This quarterfinal's shape splits two ways: Andreeva's 15 hard-court matches average 19.3 games with nine straight-set wins, while Alexandrova's 13 average 24.4 and produced eight deciders. A quick straight-sets result and a long three-setter are both consistent with those records. The smaller sample is Alexandrova's, 13 matches across two months with one retirement excluded.
- 13 completed hard-court matches tracked from 4 August to 6 October 2026
- Eight of the 13 went to a deciding set: five wins 2-1 and three defeats 1-2
- Straight-set results: four wins 2-0 and one defeat 0-2
- Average 24.4 games per match across those 13 matches

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 6

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva is the higher-ranked player with stronger overall hard-court numbers, making her the more likely winner.
- Ranked No. 5; won 11 of 15 hard-court matches this season.
- Hard-court win rates: 73.3% in first sets and 73.3% in second sets.
- Won 9 of 15 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Roland Garros champion and has 48 wins in 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance58%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Andreeva's efficient straight-set wins and the head-to-head pattern point to a shorter match.
- Andreeva's hard-court matches average 19.3 total games.
- Andreeva has won 9 of 15 hard-court matches in straight sets.
- Alexandrova's straight-set wins also tend to be low-scoring: 6-2 6-2, 6-1 6-4.
- Both head-to-head meetings finished in straight sets with 19 and 17 total games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's efficient first sets and the head-to-head pattern suggest a shorter opening set.
- Andreeva's first sets average 8.1 games on hard court.
- Andreeva has won 11 of 15 first sets, often by 6-2 or 6-3 margins.
- Both head-to-head first sets were 6-3, totaling 9 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets tend to finish just under the 9.5 mark on average.
- Andreeva's second sets average 9.1 games on hard court.
- Alexandrova's second sets average 8.9 games on hard court.
- Both players have won second sets by 6-2 or 6-4 margins recently.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's wins on hard court tend to be by comfortable margins, so a 3.5-game handicap is within reach if she wins.
- Average game margin in her last six hard-court matches is +4.2.
- Won four of her last six hard-court matches by five or more games.
- Her straight-set wins often come with margins of +7 or more.
- Lost by six games to Fernandez and by one to Gauff in her two recent hard-court defeats.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMirra Andreeva -3.5Estimated chance52%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Andreeva's high straight-set win rate makes a two-set match the more likely outcome.
- Andreeva has won 11 of 15 hard-court matches, with 9 of those wins in straight sets.
- Andreeva's average sets per hard-court match is 2.27.
- Alexandrova has four straight-set wins in her last 13 hard-court matches.
- Both previous meetings ended in straight sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva has been dominant in second sets on hard courts this season.
- Won the second set in 11 of 15 hard-court matches this season.
- Won the second set 6-2 against Snigur in the last round.
- Her hard-court second-set win rate is 73.3%.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva has been very strong in opening sets on hard courts this season.
- Won the first set in 11 of 15 hard-court matches this season.
- Won the first set 6-2 against Snigur in the last round.
- Ranked No. 5 and has a 73.3% first-set win rate on hard court.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance56%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most matches for both players on hard court have not featured a tiebreak.
- Andreeva has played 12 of 15 hard-court matches without a tiebreak.
- Alexandrova has played 9 of 13 hard-court matches without a tiebreak.
- Both previous head-to-head meetings finished without a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance65%

Prediction history

Mirra Andreeva: 12/15 recent winner projections matched

12 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Mirra Andreeva matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Mirra Andreeva15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#38Barbora Krejcikova2-1#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·62%

Missed

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#38Barbora Krejcikova2-1#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

62%probability

Barbora Krejcikova won

Missed

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#58Magda Linette0-2#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·72%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#58Magda Linette0-2#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

72%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

24 Jun·WTA Bad Homburg

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova2-0#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·65%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

WTA Bad Homburg

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova2-0#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

65%probability

Ekaterina Alexandrova won

Missed

6 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska0-2#8Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·85%

Matched

6 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska0-2#8Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

85%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

2 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#8Mirra Andreeva2-0#18Sorana Cirstea

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·72%

Matched

2 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#8Mirra Andreeva2-0#18Sorana Cirstea

Mirra Andreeva to win

72%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

Head-to-Head

2-0 (2 meetings)

W6-3 6-4Ekaterina Alexandrova#28vMirra Andreeva#5Jun 24, 2026

W6-3 6-2Ekaterina Alexandrova#28vMirra Andreeva#5Apr 17, 2025

2 total meetings

Previous match context available

Ekaterina Alexandrova

9W 6L

6-2 6-2#6Linda Noskova 3-6 6-4 6-3#14Diana Shnaider 6-1 6-4#121Aliaksandra Sasnovich

6-3 6-2#10Marta Kostyuk

6-1 2-6 6-3#41Kimberly Birrell

6-2 6-2#77Mccartney Kessler

7-6(6) 4-6 6-3#44Clara Tauson

4-6 6-1 6-2#29Sara Bejlek

6-7(5) 6-4 7-5#89Anna Blinkova

3-6 6-0 6-3#7Elina Svitolina

7-6(3) 4-6 6-4#2Aryna Sabalenka

5-7 6-1 6-3#37Talia Gibson

6-3 7-6(4)#66Maria Camila Osorio Serrano

7-6(2) 4-6 5-4 ret.#119Kristina Liutova

6-3 3-6 6-4#13Iva Jovic

Mirra Andreeva

11W 4L

6-2 6-2#46Daria Snigur

6-4 6-1#104Polina Kudermetova 3-6 6-0 6-0#135Yue Yuan

6-2 7-5#26Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-2 6-2#121Aliaksandra Sasnovich

2-6 7-6(7) 6-2#4Cori Gauff

5-7 6-4 6-3#25Anastasia Potapova

6-2 7-6(5)#34Nikola Bartunkova

6-0 6-2#102Eva Lys

6-2 6-2#49Janice Tjen

4-6 6-0 6-2#10Marta Kostyuk

6-1 7-6(5)#49Janice Tjen

6-1 6-0#47Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-1 6-4#26Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-0 6-2#51Karolina Pliskova

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EAEkaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova

Last 15

2–6

9 core stats · 1 even

Mirra AndreevaAndreevaMA

Mirra Andreeva carries the stronger recent form — Ekaterina Alexandrova's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

1st Serve In57.4%+7.3pp64.7%

1st Serve Won67.2%+3.1pp70.3%

2nd Serve Won48.2%—48.4%

Aces / Match5.5+2.13.4

Double Faults / Match6.12.8 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won43.0%+5.5pp48.5%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted46.3%+7.9pp54.2%

Break Pts Saved65.0%+11.5pp53.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.3%+4.0pp55.3%

Serve · 1–3 · 1 even

57.4%1st Serve In+7.3pp64.7%

67.2%1st Serve Won+3.1pp70.3%

48.2%2nd Serve Won—48.4%

5.5Aces / Match+2.13.4

6.1Double Faults / Match2.8 fewer3.3

Return · 0–1

43.0%Return Pts Won+5.5pp48.5%

Pressure · 1–1

46.3%Break Pts Converted+7.9pp54.2%

65.0%Break Pts Saved+11.5pp53.5%

Points · 0–1

51.3%Total Pts Won+4.0pp55.3%

Ekaterina Alexandrova #28Russia0Mirra Andreeva #5Russia2

Player Profiles

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Mirra Andreeva

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 21.5

Ekaterina Alexandrova +3.5

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Ekaterina Alexandrova 2-1

Under 2.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 4 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Mirra Andreeva: 12/15 recent winner projections matched

Head-to-Head

Ekaterina Alexandrova

Mirra Andreeva

Stat Battle