TürkiyeWTA SamsunFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Leolia Jeanjean #109France0Mariam Bolkvadze #370Georgia2

Sets 3-6 · 1-6Wed 7 Oct 2026, 08:22 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions4–833%

Edges3–175%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLeolia Jeanjean · 261 places

Leolia Jeanjean

France

French right-hander born in August 1995. Her career-high singles ranking was No. 91 in August 2025, and the ITF player profile lists clay as her preferred surface; no current, reliably sourced injury or withdrawal signal was returned in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #109
Peak ranking: #91 · 2025
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Mariam Bolkvadze

Georgia

Bolkvadze reached a singles career high of No. 151 in March 2022. The reviewed reliable sources did not establish a preferred surface or height.

Current ranking: #370
Peak ranking: #151 · 2022
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Carpet
Hand: Left handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Oct 2026, 04:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Jeanjean, world No. 109, arrives a WTA 125 champion and should beat No.

370 Bolkvadze, but her slow starts and three-set habit keep this open. She lost 9 of 15 first sets on hard and her last five wins all went the distance. The prices carrying an edge: a deciding set at 2.6, Bolkvadze to take the first set at 2.9, the second at 2.9, or the match at 3.5. Jeanjean's 1.3 match price and 1.36 set prices ask more than her record supports.

Context

Jeanjean arrives in Samsun as the reigning champion from the previous week, a five-match title run that supports recent match sharpness better than a routine result would. It also carries a scheduling cost: she played a rain-interrupted three-set final and opens here two days later after travelling from Adana. The compressed turnaround is the factor most likely to offset the form she brings, more than the title itself changes the match.
- Jeanjean won the WTA 125 Adana Open final against Loïs Boisson 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-4
- It was her first WTA 125 singles title and her fifth professional singles title, after Sibenik, Calvi, Poitiers and Nantes
- She was seeded No. 4 in Adana and ranked around No. 109
- The final was interrupted by rain
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 04:41 · Europe/Bucharest
Jeanjean arrives on a five-match winning run, yet those wins have been closer than the streak suggests.
Her first sets in this window read 6-9 while her second sets read 9-6, so she has often been the player chasing the match. Bolkvadze has just won two matches on these courts, which makes a scrappy, three-set opener a realistic shape for this first round. It does not change who is favoured; it does make the closing stages of each set matter more.
- 3 August – 4 October 2026, hard courts: 15 matches, 10 wins and 5 losses
- Scorelines: 2-1 seven times, 2-0 three times, 0-2 three times, 1-2 twice
- Set 1 record 6 wins, 9 losses; Set 2 record 9 wins, 6 losses
- Average 24.8 games per match; 5 of 15 matches contained a tiebreak
Bolkvadze lands a high share of first serves but pays for it whenever the second ball is needed.
She puts 67.4% of first serves in on hard and wins 59.7% of those points, but only 40.5% of second-serve points, which is where the double faults bite. Jeanjean averages 4.9 double faults per match over her last 15 hard-court matches, so both players hand over free points. Against an opponent converting 42.6% of break points on this surface, Bolkvadze's service games are the most likely place for the match to swing.
- Last 15 matches: 8.7 double faults per match (130 in 15)
- Hard courts, last 9 matches: 8.6 double faults per match (77) and 0.4 aces per match (4)
- Hard courts: first serve in 67.4%, first-serve points won 59.7%
- Hard courts: second-serve points won 40.5%; 38.9% across the last 15 matches
The event is in its second year and draws an unusually deep field for a 125-level week, with half a dozen top-100 players plus Turkey's leading names in the draw. That raises the standard of the surrounding competition and frames the occasion as a step above a routine lower-tier week, which is useful for reading the two players' level here. It does not by itself point to a specific playing advantage for either player.
- Samsun Open WTA 125 is in its second edition and runs 4-11 October 2026
- It is played at the Samsun Büyükşehir Belediyesi Golf Tesisleri
- About 70 players from 31 countries entered, including six top-100 players
- The event is staged under the Türkiye Tenis Federasyonu with Türkiye's leading players in the draw
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Oct 2026, 04:41 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jeanjean sits far higher in the rankings, has won her last five matches including the Adana WTA 125 final, and holds the better share of points won on this surface.
- Ranked 109 vs 370
- 10-5 on hard in last 15 matches, 50.8% of total points won
- Won the Adana WTA 125 title on 4 October, her fifth straight win
- Bolkvadze is 4-5 on hard in her last 9 with 49.5% of points won
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLeolia JeanjeanEstimated chance68%

Games3 of 6 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jeanjean has only once beaten a recent opponent by more than six games, so Bolkvadze staying inside that margin is strongly supported.
- Jeanjean's last five win margins: 1, 6, 2, 1, 5 games
- Jeanjean's hard-court game record is 193 won, 179 lost
- Bolkvadze has won her last two matches at this venue
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMariam Bolkvadze +6.5Estimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jeanjean's wins are usually narrow and she rarely finishes in straight sets, so Bolkvadze staying within four games is well supported.
- Jeanjean's last five win margins: 1, 6, 2, 1, 5 games
- Jeanjean has won 3 of 15 hard-court matches in straight sets
- Bolkvadze's recent match margins were 5, 11, 3, 5, 4 and 4 games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMariam Bolkvadze +4.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent hard-court matches have tended to run past 22 games, and a likely third set pushes the total higher.
- Jeanjean averages 24.8 total games per hard-court match
- Bolkvadze averages 22.6 total games per hard-court match
- Jeanjean's recent matches averaged 26.5 total games
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 22.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bolkvadze's second sets on hard have been long and frequently go to tiebreaks, which pulls the second-set total above the line.
- Bolkvadze set 2 total games average 11.0
- Jeanjean set 2 total games average 9.6
- 4 of Bolkvadze's 9 second sets have gone to tiebreaks
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets have averaged around ten games, right at the line, with Jeanjean's slow starts keeping first sets close.
- Jeanjean set 1 total games average 10.0
- Bolkvadze set 1 total games average 9.6
- Jeanjean's first sets have been the tighter end of her matches
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jeanjean's recent wins have mostly been by small margins, so Bolkvadze staying within two games is the slightly better side.
- Jeanjean's last five wins came by 1, 6, 2, 1 and 5 games
- Bolkvadze's recent hard-court matches were decided by 3, 4, 5 and 5 games
- Jeanjean has won only 51.9% of her hard-court games
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMariam Bolkvadze +2.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.60
The read
Jeanjean's recent matches regularly run to a deciding set and Bolkvadze has also played long matches here, so a third set is the more likely length.
- Jeanjean's hard-court matches went to three sets in 9 of 15
- Bolkvadze's hard-court matches went to three sets in 3 of 9
- Combined straight-set share is the smaller part of both records
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jeanjean's second sets are her stronger ones, and she has taken nine of fifteen on hard, which is consistent with a higher-ranked player reasserting herself.
- Jeanjean set 2: 9 wins, 6 losses on hard
- Bolkvadze set 2: 5 wins, 4 losses on hard
- Jeanjean set 2 average 9.6 total games
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostLeolia JeanjeanEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jeanjean wins more matches overall and holds the higher ranking, but her first-set record is weaker than her overall form, so the edge is smaller than for the match.
- Jeanjean set 1: 6 wins, 9 losses on hard
- Bolkvadze set 1: 4 wins, 5 losses on hard
- Jeanjean set 1 average 10.0 total games
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLeolia JeanjeanEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players double-fault heavily, with Bolkvadze especially prone, and a likely third set adds further service games.
- Jeanjean averages 4.9 double faults per hard-court match
- Bolkvadze averages 8.6 double faults per hard-court match
- Combined average sits on the 13.5 line
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 13.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Frequent breaks from both sides make a match without a tiebreak slightly more likely than one with it.
- Jeanjean: 5 of 15 hard-court matches contained a tiebreak
- Bolkvadze: 8.6 double faults per hard-court match
- Both players break frequently, reducing hold-heavy sets
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jeanjean serves enough aces on her own to sit near the line, so a total above 2.5 is marginally more likely than below.
- Jeanjean averages 2.3 aces per hard-court match
- Bolkvadze averages 0.4 aces per hard-court match
- Combined expected total is a little above 2.5
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 2.5Estimated chance52%

Prediction history

Leolia Jeanjean: 7/7 recent winner projections matched

7 of 7 comparable winner projections favouring Leolia Jeanjean matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Leolia Jeanjean7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

10 Jul·WTA Contrexeville

#132Leolia Jeanjean2-1#229Alice Tubello

BetBugsLeolia Jeanjean to win·62%

Matched

10 Jul 2026

WTA Contrexeville

#132Leolia Jeanjean2-1#229Alice Tubello

Leolia Jeanjean to win

62%probability

Leolia Jeanjean won

Matched

7 Jul·WTA Contrexeville

#318Amandine Monnot0-2#132Leolia Jeanjean

BetBugsLeolia Jeanjean to win·78%

Matched

7 Jul 2026

WTA Contrexeville

#318Amandine Monnot0-2#132Leolia Jeanjean

Leolia Jeanjean to win

78%probability

Leolia Jeanjean won

Matched

30 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#87Veronika Erjavec1-2#133Leolia Jeanjean

BetBugsLeolia Jeanjean to win·58%

Matched

30 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#87Veronika Erjavec1-2#133Leolia Jeanjean

Leolia Jeanjean to win

58%probability

Leolia Jeanjean won

Matched

24 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#219Ekaterine Gorgodze0-2#133Leolia Jeanjean

BetBugsLeolia Jeanjean to win·65%

Matched

24 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#219Ekaterine Gorgodze0-2#133Leolia Jeanjean

Leolia Jeanjean to win

65%probability

Leolia Jeanjean won

Matched

23 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#179Xiaodi You1-2#133Leolia Jeanjean

BetBugsLeolia Jeanjean to win·62%

Matched

23 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#179Xiaodi You1-2#133Leolia Jeanjean

Leolia Jeanjean to win

62%probability

Leolia Jeanjean won

Matched

Previous match context available

Leolia Jeanjean

10W 5L

7-6(3) 4-6 6-4#274Lois Boisson 4-6 6-1 6-3#83Antonia Ruzic 6-4 1-6 6-1#125Lucrezia Stefanini

3-6 7-5 6-4#655Melisa Ercan

4-6 6-3 6-2#215Suzan Lamens

6-2 6-4#97Claire Liu

6-1 7-6(4)#148Carol Young Suh Lee

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#265Julieta Pareja

6-2 7-6(3)#305Carolina Meligeni Alves

6-4 2-6 6-3#25Anastasia Potapova

7-6(6) 6-2#258Arantxa Rus

6-4 4-6 6-2#76Kamilla Rakhimova

6-2 6-4#125Lucrezia Stefanini

3-6 6-3 6-2#120Himeno Sakatsume

7-5 6-3#48Magdalena Frech

Mariam Bolkvadze

8W 7L

4-6 7-6(5) 6-0#663Mariia Tkacheva

6-1 6-0—Alya Naz Altinel

6-3 7-6(5)#255Anouk Koevermans

6-4 6-3#168Alevtina Ibragimova

6-4 7-6(5)#213Erika Andreeva

6-3 7-6(3)#814Kallista Liu

6-7(3) 6-4 6-0#87Daria Kasatkina

6-3 5-7 6-0—Unknown Player

6-1 6-0#73Ashlyn Krueger

6-2 2-6 6-4#103Ajla Tomljanovic

6-4 4-6 6-3#128Jeline Vandromme

6-3 6-2#216Hayu Kinoshita

6-4 7-6(6)#99Julia Grabher

6-3 6-4#214Francisca Jorge

7-6(7) 6-1#157Nao Hibino

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LJLeolia JeanjeanJeanjean

Last 15

6–2

9 core stats · 1 even

Mariam BolkvadzeBolkvadzeMB

Leolia Jeanjean carries the stronger recent form — Mariam Bolkvadze's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In56.6%+10.3pp66.9%

1st Serve Won62.8%+2.7pp60.1%

2nd Serve Won46.8%+7.9pp38.9%

Aces / Match2.3+1.80.5

Double Faults / Match4.93.8 fewer8.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won45.9%—46.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.6%+1.0pp41.6%

Break Pts Saved52.8%+4.3pp57.1%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won50.8%+1.2pp49.6%

Serve · 4–1

56.6%1st Serve In+10.3pp66.9%

62.8%1st Serve Won+2.7pp60.1%

46.8%2nd Serve Won+7.9pp38.9%

2.3Aces / Match+1.80.5

4.9Double Faults / Match3.8 fewer8.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

45.9%Return Pts Won—46.0%

Pressure · 1–1

42.6%Break Pts Converted+1.0pp41.6%

52.8%Break Pts Saved+4.3pp57.1%

Points · 1–0

50.8%Total Pts Won+1.2pp49.6%

Leolia Jeanjean

Mariam Bolkvadze

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Mariam Bolkvadze

Mariam Bolkvadze

Mariam Bolkvadze

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 6 landed

Sets0 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Leolia Jeanjean

Mariam Bolkvadze

Stat Battle