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Predictions graded

Leolia Jeanjean #119France2Lois Boisson #299France1

Sets 7-6 · 4-6 · 6-4Sun 4 Oct 2026, 15:05 Predictions gradedFinalHard

Predictions5–645%

Edges4–180%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageLeolia Jeanjean · 180 places

Leolia Jeanjean

France

French right-hander born in August 1995. Her career-high singles ranking was No. 91 in August 2025, and the ITF player profile lists clay as her preferred surface; no current, reliably sourced injury or withdrawal signal was returned in the specified searches.

Current ranking: #119
Peak ranking: #91 · 2025
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Lois Boisson

France

French right-hander born in May 2003. No verified current injury, withdrawal, or Cincinnati workload signal was established from the requested searches.

Current ranking: #299
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 4 Oct 2026, 03:09 · Europe/Bucharest

An all-French final in Adana.

Boisson has been the sharper player, winning her first three main-draw matches in straight sets, but she sits 165 ranking places below Jeanjean, who has taken every match here to a third set. Boisson is the marginal pick for the match and the opening set; a long final looks likely. Jeanjean +3.5 games at 1.9, Over 2.5 sets at 2.4, Jeanjean to win at 2.75 and Jeanjean 2-1 at 5.25 all carry value; Boisson's 1.44 match and 1.45 first-set prices do not.

Context

Jeanjean, seeded fourth at No. 109, beat the highest-ranked player in the draw, top seed Antonia Ruzic (No. 83), 4-6, 6-1, 6-3, reversing the ranking gap inside the tournament. The result carries a direct ranking consequence: it returns her to the Top 100 in the live list. The counterweight is that Ruzic was the only seeded opponent she faced and every Jeanjean match in Adana has gone to three sets, so the run reflects endurance across a long week rather than a comfortable margin.
- Jeanjean beat top seed Antonia Ruzic 4-6, 6-1, 6-3 in the semi-finals .
- Ruzic was ranked No. 83; Jeanjean was ranked No. 109 and seeded fourth.
- The run gives Jeanjean her first final of 2026 and a return to the Top 100 in the live rankings.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 03:06 · Europe/BucharestTennisActuwww.tennisactu.net · 3 Oct 2026Tennis Templeen.tennistemple.com · 3 Oct 2026
Boisson was repêchée as a lucky loser after losing the final qualifying round, so her run to Sunday includes an extra qualifying match plus four main-draw wins. The margin of her quarter-final against Anna Blinkova, ranked No. 89, was 6-0, 6-1, the most emphatic result of her week. This is her first final of 2026 and her first final in more than a year, from a ranking of No. 274. The route means she has already absorbed more matches than a normal main-draw entrant.
- Boisson lost the final qualifying round to Fiona Crawley and entered the main draw as a lucky loser.
- She beat Erika Andreeva 6-3, 4-6, 6-2 in the semi-finals.
- She beat Anna Blinkova, ranked No. 89, 6-0, 6-1 in the quarter-finals.
- It is her first final of 2026 and her first final in more than a year.
ConfirmedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 03:06 · Europe/BucharestTennisActuwww.tennisactu.net · 3 Oct 2026
Boisson's No. 274 ranking traces back to a 2025 Roland Garros semi-final run made from outside the top 350, which lifted her into the Top 100 before a six-month injury absence. That gap between the level she demonstrated in Paris and her current ranking is the reason her week in Adana carries unusual interest. The limitation is that this is a recovery trajectory rather than a restored level: the Top 100 form dates from 2025, and her current ranking places her well below several opponents she is now beating.
- Boisson reached the 2025 Roland Garros semi-finals as a player ranked outside the top 350, beating Jessica Pegula and Mirra Andreeva.
- She moved into the Top 100 after that run, then spent more than six months out with injury.
- She has since dropped outside the top 250 and is rebuilding her ranking.
ReportedSources checked 4 Oct 2026, 03:06 · Europe/Bucharest
Boisson's first-set record is the standout number behind her run to the Adana final.
Boisson's first-set record is the strongest single number behind her run to the final, and it lines up against a player who has lost 10 of her last 15 opening sets and needed three sets in all four rounds in Adana. Jeanjean has still won 10 of those 15 matches, though, so a lost opener has not been decisive for her. The 12-match hard-court sample is small and excludes two retired matches; none of her six most recent listed matches ended in retirement.
- Boisson has won 10 of her 12 completed hard-court first sets between 1 August and 3 October 2026, with one first-set tiebreak in that sample.
- Her first-set games average is 5.83 won to 2.92 lost across those 12 matches.
- The 12-match surface sample excludes two retired matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Boisson has been the more dominant player in this event, dropping only one set on the way to the final.
- Boisson is 7-5 on hard in her last 12 completed matches and has won all four main-draw matches in Adana, three in straight sets.
- Her first-set record on hard is 10-2, averaging 5.83 games won to 2.92 lost.
- Jeanjean is ranked No. 109 to Boisson's No. 274, but has needed three sets in all four Adana matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLois BoissonEstimated chance52%

Games3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Jeanjean has been competitive in almost every match, and a four-game cushion covers most of her losses.
- Jeanjean has won 10 of her last 15 hard matches and lost only three of them by three games or more.
- Her recent matches average a +2.3 game margin in her favour.
- Boisson's heavier wins came mainly against opponents ranked No. 132 and below.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonLeolia Jeanjean +3.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With a deciding set the likely outcome, the combined game count should sit around the line.
- Jeanjean averages 24.3 games per hard match, Boisson 22.8.
- Both players' last four-set totals in Adana include a three-setter.
- Jeanjean's matches average 133 minutes.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 23.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Boisson's one-sided first sets pull the expected opener just below the line.
- Boisson's first sets average 8.75 games in total.
- Jeanjean's first sets average 9.67 games.
- Their combined first-set average is 9.2 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both players have finished second sets quickly often enough to shade the under.
- Combined second-set average is 9.44 games.
- Jeanjean has won six second sets by a margin of four games or more in her tracked sample.
- Boisson's second sets include a 6-0 and a 6-1.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Jeanjean has won nearly half her matches outright and rarely loses by a wide margin, so even a narrow defeat covers this line.
- Jeanjean's last six completed hard matches give a game margin of +14 (80-66).
- Four of those six matches were decided by three games or fewer on her side.
- Boisson's six recent hard matches give a margin of +41 (78-37).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonLeolia Jeanjean +1.5Estimated chance51%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Boisson has started matches much more strongly than Jeanjean throughout this surface sample.
- Boisson has won 10 of 12 first sets on hard, averaging 5.83 games to 2.92.
- Jeanjean has lost 10 of her last 15 first sets, averaging 4.33 games to 5.33.
- Boisson has one first-set tiebreak in 12 matches, Jeanjean two in 15.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLois BoissonEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40
The read
Both players have needed deciding sets regularly, and both won three-set semi-finals on Saturday.
- Nine of Jeanjean's last 15 hard matches went to three sets; six of Boisson's 12 did.
- Both Adana semi-finals were decided in three sets.
- Their combined average is 2.55 sets per match.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second set is the phase where Jeanjean has been strongest, and her record there matches Boisson's.
- Jeanjean has won 10 of 15 second sets on hard, averaging 5.2 games to 4.27.
- Boisson has won eight of 12 second sets, averaging 5.25 to 4.17.
- Both players have three second-set tiebreaks in their tracked matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostLeolia JeanjeanEstimated chance51%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Tiebreaks have been uncommon in both players' completed hard-court matches.
- Jeanjean has had a tiebreak in four of 15 hard matches, Boisson in three of 12.
- Roughly one in nine of their hard-court sets reached a tiebreak.
- Only two of Jeanjean's 15 first sets and two second sets went to a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%

Previous match context available

Leolia Jeanjean

10W 5L

4-6 6-1 6-3#83Antonia Ruzic 6-4 1-6 6-1#125Lucrezia Stefanini

3-6 7-5 6-4#655Melisa Ercan

4-6 6-3 6-2#215Suzan Lamens

6-2 6-4#97Claire Liu

6-1 7-6(4)#148Carol Young Suh Lee

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3#265Julieta Pareja

6-2 7-6(3)#305Carolina Meligeni Alves

6-4 2-6 6-3#25Anastasia Potapova

7-6(6) 6-2#258Arantxa Rus

6-4 4-6 6-2#76Kamilla Rakhimova

6-2 6-4#125Lucrezia Stefanini

3-6 6-3 6-2#120Himeno Sakatsume

7-5 6-3#48Magdalena Frech

2-6 6-2 6-3#199Lin Zhu

Lois Boisson

8W 7L

6-3 4-6 6-2#213Erika Andreeva

6-0 6-1#89Anna Blinkova

6-3 6-2#173Martyna Kubka

6-1 6-2#132Lucia Bronzetti

2-6 6-3 7-5#234Fiona Crawley

6-1 6-1—Piraye Ozdemir

6-4 6-7(6) 6-2#79Panna Udvardy

7-6(6) 6-7(1) 6-3#24Emma Navarro

6-1 ret.#725Capucine Jauffret

4-6 6-4 6-3#31Diane Parry

6-3 ret.#12Belinda Bencic

6-3 6-2#73Ashlyn Krueger

4-6 6-1 6-3#83Antonia Ruzic

6-1 7-6(4)#138Emiliana Arango

6-4 1-6 6-3#1Elena Rybakina

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LJLeolia JeanjeanJeanjean

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Lois BoissonBoissonLB

Lois Boisson carries the stronger recent form — Leolia Jeanjean's route runs through pressure.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In55.4%+5.2pp60.6%

1st Serve Won64.4%+5.6pp70.0%

2nd Serve Won45.5%+3.2pp48.7%

Aces / Match2.4+1.74.1

Double Faults / Match5.51.4 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won45.9%+3.1pp42.8%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted43.9%+4.6pp39.3%

Break Pts Saved54.5%+9.0pp63.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won50.9%+1.4pp52.3%

Serve · 0–5

55.4%1st Serve In+5.2pp60.6%

64.4%1st Serve Won+5.6pp70.0%

45.5%2nd Serve Won+3.2pp48.7%

2.4Aces / Match+1.74.1

5.5Double Faults / Match1.4 fewer4.1

Return · 1–0

45.9%Return Pts Won+3.1pp42.8%

Pressure · 1–1

43.9%Break Pts Converted+4.6pp39.3%

54.5%Break Pts Saved+9.0pp63.5%

Points · 0–1

50.9%Total Pts Won+1.4pp52.3%

Leolia Jeanjean

Lois Boisson

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Leolia Jeanjean +3.5

Over 2.5

Leolia Jeanjean

Leolia Jeanjean 2-1

Lois Boisson

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 5 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Leolia Jeanjean

Lois Boisson

Stat Battle