Novak Djokovic #11Serbia11 – 1Alex De Minaur #9Australia1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55

The read

Djokovic's serve and perfect Beijing record give him a slight advantage in a close final.

• Djokovic is 11-4 in his last 15 matches and 4-2 on hard this season.
• He is 33-0 in Beijing with six titles, though this is his first appearance since 2015.
• Djokovic leads the head-to-head 3-1, including a straight-sets win at the 2023 Australian Open.
• On hard courts he has won 75.3% of first-serve points and saved 79.7% of break points.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40

The read

De Minaur's return and movement should prevent a blowout, keeping the margin within four games.

• De Minaur has not lost by five or more games in his last six completed hard matches.
• Djokovic's recent hard best-of-3 margins: +2, +3, +4, 0.
• The 2023 Australian Open is the only H2H match where De Minaur lost by more than four games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

De Minaur's tight recent matches suggest he will keep the final within three games.

• De Minaur has not lost by four or more games in his last six completed hard matches.
• Djokovic's recent hard best-of-3 margins: +2, +3, +4, 0.
• Djokovic covered -3.5 in just one of those four.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Djokovic's second sets frequently extend past nine games, and De Minaur tends to play close sets.

• Djokovic's set2 totals in hard best-of-3: 10, 13, 13, 10 games.
• All four of his set2 samples went over 9.5 games.
• De Minaur's set2 average total games: 10.18.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

De Minaur's competitiveness and Djokovic's tendency to win close sets make a small margin likely.

• De Minaur's recent completed hard matches: margins +2, 0, +5, -1, +6, +9.
• He has not lost by three or more games in his last six completed matches.
• Djokovic's average winning margin in recent hard best-of-3 wins is +3.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20

The read

Djokovic's longer matches and the competitive final point to a total around or above the line.

• Djokovic's hard best-of-3 setEvidence average total games: 27.75.
• Three of his last four completed hard best-of-3 matches went over 24.5 games.
• De Minaur's hard best-of-3 average total games: 23.73.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

First sets have often been tight, pushing the total just over the line.

• Djokovic's set1 totals in hard best-of-3: 10, 10, 9, 8 games.
• De Minaur's set1 average total games: 9.82.
• De Minaur has played two first-set tiebreaks in 11 hard best-of-3 matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.20

The read

Djokovic's recent tendency to need three sets makes a decider slightly more likely.

• Djokovic's hard best-of-3 setEvidence average total sets: 2.75.
• Three of his last four completed hard best-of-3 matches went to a third set.
• De Minaur's hard best-of-3 average total sets: 2.36, with four of 11 going to three sets.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

De Minaur's slightly better first-set record gives him a marginal advantage.

• De Minaur's set1 record in hard best-of-3 setEvidence: 6-5.
• Djokovic has won only half of his first sets in the same sample.
• De Minaur won the first set in three of his last six completed hard matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players are strong in second sets, but Djokovic's serve gives him a slight advantage.

• Djokovic's set2 record in hard best-of-3 setEvidence: 3-1.
• He has won the second set in three of his last four completed hard best-of-3 matches.
• De Minaur's set2 record: 8-3.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The combination of strong serving and returning makes at least one tiebreak likely.

• De Minaur has had a tiebreak in 7 of 11 hard best-of-3 matches.
• Djokovic has had a tiebreak in 2 of 4 hard best-of-3 matches.
• Both players have strong return games, which often leads to close sets.