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Predictions graded

Polina Kudermetova #108Uzbekistan0Mirra Andreeva #5Russia2

Sets 4-6 · 1-6Sun 4 Oct 2026, 04:58 Predictions gradedThird RoundHard

Predictions7–464%

Edges3–443%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMirra Andreeva · 103 places

Polina Kudermetova

Uzbekistan

Kudermetova is a right-handed hard-court-preferring player. She reached a career-high No. 54 on 14 April 2025; the official WTA profile listed her at No. 108 in the latest retrieved update.

Current ranking: #108
Peak ranking: #54 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Mirra Andreeva

Russia

First reached her career-high ranking of No. 5 on July 28, 2025 and remains No. 5. The ITF lists clay as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #5
Peak ranking: #5 · 2025
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Oct 2026, 19:06 · Europe/Bucharest

Andreeva, the world No. 5, is a clear favourite against No.

104 Kudermetova, but the 1.05 match price demands more than her form justifies, and Kudermetova has taken both her Beijing matches to three sets. Over 20.5 games at 2.75, Kudermetova +4.5 games at 3.3, over 2.5 sets at 4 and Andreeva 2-1 at 5.25 all offer something.

Context

Andreeva has won both completed meetings, including a straight-sets win on the Roland Garros clay, so there is no evidence Kudermetova has found a way through this matchup. That most recent meeting came in 2023, when both players were well outside the top 100, so it says more about Andreeva's baseline control than about how these Beijing hard courts will play. Kudermetova has since reached a career-high No. 54 and has won two three-set matches this week, which limits how much a three-year-old result predicts this round.
- Andreeva has won both completed meetings with Kudermetova.
- One of those wins came 6-1 6-4 at Roland Garros in May 2023.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 19:03 · Europe/BucharestBeijing round-of-32 match listingumpiry.com · 3 Oct 2026
Kudermetova beat a top-50 seed to reach the last 32 of a WTA 1000, the strongest result of her recent hard-court stretch. Two three-set wins in the same week show she can physically hold up on these courts. The step up to a top-five opponent is significant, and her two Beijing wins came against a No. 44 seed and a player ranked No. 161, so the Tauson result is a better guide to her level than her No. 104 ranking.
- Kudermetova beat No. 32 seed Clara Tauson 6-4 4-6 6-4 in Beijing.
- Her opening-round win was 6-7(2) 6-3 6-2 over Yexin Ma, so she reached the round of 32 through two three-set matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 19:03 · Europe/Bucharest
Andreeva reached the third round with a dominant close-out after a slow start, so the cost of her opener was almost entirely the first set. Only nine WTA matches since 2016 have followed a first-set defeat with 6-0 6-0 scorelines, and the last three of those were in Beijing. Yuan sits outside the top 100, so this is a statement about Andreeva's level once she finds her range rather than a test against elite opposition.
- Andreeva beat Yue Yuan 3-6 6-0 6-0 in the round of 64 in Beijing.
- She won 12 consecutive games after dropping the opening set.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Oct 2026, 19:03 · Europe/Bucharest
Andreeva's hard-court profile in this window is built on finishing sets before they reach a tiebreak rather than on long, grinding wins.
Andreeva has closed out most of her hard-court matches in two sets and rarely needs a tiebreak, which shapes how quickly this match could be settled. The risk to that picture is Kudermetova's habit of extending matches, and Andreeva did drop the opening set to Yue Yuan in her first match here before winning 12 games in a row.
- Andreeva has played 13 completed hard-court matches from 5 August to 2 October 2026, with a 9-4 record.
- Seven of those 13 matches were 2-0 wins, two were 0-2 defeats, two were 2-1 wins and two were 1-2 defeats.
- Her hard-court matches in the window average 2.31 sets, and only three of the 13 featured a tiebreak.
- Her first sets in the window average 8.0 games with no first-set tiebreaks.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.05
The read
Andreeva is the far higher-ranked player, has the better hard-court record in this window and has won both previous meetings.
- Andreeva is WTA No. 5; Kudermetova is No. 104
- Hard-court last-15: Andreeva 9-4, Kudermetova 7-5
- Andreeva has won both completed meetings, including 6-1 6-4 at Roland Garros
- Andreeva has won 20 of 30 hard-court sets in this window (66.7%)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance82%

Games1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Most of Andreeva's recent hard-court matches finished with margins below seven games.
- Andreeva's recent hard-court margins: +9, +8, -1, +3, +5
- Only two of those five matches exceeded a six-game margin
- Kudermetova pushed Tauson to 6-4 in the third set in Beijing
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostPolina Kudermetova +6.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.75
The read
Kudermetova's hard-court matches run long, and a deciding set would carry the total past the line.
- Kudermetova's hard-court matches average 25.8 total games
- Andreeva's hard-court matches average 19.7 total games
- Kudermetova has gone to a decider in six of 12 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's wins over similarly ranked opponents on this surface came by wide game margins.
- Andreeva's recent hard-court game margins: +9, +8, -1, +3, +5
- She won 15-6 against No. 135 Yue Yuan and 12-4 against No. 121 Sasnovich
- Kudermetova is ranked No. 104
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMirra Andreeva -4.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' second sets on hard courts sit close to or above ten games on average.
- Andreeva's hard-court second sets average 9.3 games
- Kudermetova's hard-court second sets average 10.7 games
- Kudermetova's matches include three second-set tiebreaks in the last 12 hard-court outings
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva's opening sets on this surface have generally been decided before the ten-game mark.
- Andreeva's hard-court first sets average 8.0 games
- Andreeva has had no first-set tiebreaks in 13 hard-court matches
- Kudermetova lost the opening set 1-6 to Linda Fruhvirtova recently
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Andreeva's second-set record on hard courts is clearly stronger than Kudermetova's.
- Andreeva has won 9 of 13 second sets on hard courts in this window
- Kudermetova's second-set record on the same surface is 6-6
- Andreeva has won 20 of 30 hard-court sets overall in this window (66.7%)
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10
The read
Andreeva has the stronger first-set record in this window and Kudermetova has started slowly on hard courts.
- Andreeva has won 9 of 13 first sets on hard courts in this window
- Kudermetova has lost 8 of 12 first sets on the same surface
- Andreeva's hard-court first sets average 8.0 games with no tiebreaks
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMirra AndreevaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva more often finishes in straight sets, and Kudermetova has been beaten 2-0 in a third of her hard-court matches.
- Andreeva has won 7 of 13 hard-court matches 2-0
- Her hard-court matches average 2.31 sets
- Kudermetova has lost 2-0 four times in 12 hard-court matches
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva has won most of her hard-court matches in straight sets, and Kudermetova has been beaten 2-0 four times in 12 hard-court matches.
- Andreeva's hard-court scorelines: seven 2-0 wins, two 2-1 wins, four losses in 13 matches
- She has won 13 sets 6-0 at WTA level in 2026, more than any other player
- Kudermetova has been taken to a deciding set in both Beijing rounds
BetBugs · Set BettingwonMirra Andreeva 2-0Estimated chance57%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Andreeva closes sets decisively, and most of her hard-court matches in this window finished without a tiebreak.
- Andreeva has had a tiebreak in only 3 of 13 hard-court matches
- Her hard-court first sets average 8.0 games
- Andreeva has won 13 sets 6-0 at WTA level in 2026
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.05 price requires 95.2%, above our 82.0% estimate.

Prediction history

Mirra Andreeva: 12/15 recent winner projections matched

12 of 15 comparable winner projections favouring Mirra Andreeva matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Mirra Andreeva15 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#38Barbora Krejcikova2-1#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·62%

Missed

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#38Barbora Krejcikova2-1#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

62%probability

Barbora Krejcikova won

Missed

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#58Magda Linette0-2#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·72%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#58Magda Linette0-2#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

72%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

24 Jun·WTA Bad Homburg

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova2-0#5Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·65%

Missed

24 Jun 2026

WTA Bad Homburg

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova2-0#5Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

65%probability

Ekaterina Alexandrova won

Missed

6 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska0-2#8Mirra Andreeva

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·85%

Matched

6 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska0-2#8Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva to win

85%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

2 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#8Mirra Andreeva2-0#18Sorana Cirstea

BetBugsMirra Andreeva to win·72%

Matched

2 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#8Mirra Andreeva2-0#18Sorana Cirstea

Mirra Andreeva to win

72%probability

Mirra Andreeva won

Matched

Previous match context available

Polina Kudermetova

7W 8L

6-4 4-6 6-4#44Clara Tauson

6-7(2) 6-3 6-2#161Yexin Ma

7-6(4) 4-6 7-5#76Kamilla Rakhimova

6-1 6-3#181Linda Fruhvirtova

6-3 6-2#85Xiyu Wang

6-4 6-7(5) 6-4#148Carol Young Suh Lee

6-0 3-0 ret.#69Alina Korneeva

6-4 6-4—Avery Alexander

7-6(4) 6-4#7Elina Svitolina

5-7 7-6(4) 6-0#35Cristina Bucsa

4-6 7-6(7) 6-4#189Varvara Lepchenko

7-6(6) 6-4#259Mei Yamaguchi

6-0 7-6(1)#33Maria Sakkari

7-6(2) 6-4#782Liv Boulard

6-3 6-3#39Liudmila Samsonova

Mirra Andreeva

10W 5L

3-6 6-0 6-0#135Yue Yuan

6-2 7-5#26Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-2 6-2#121Aliaksandra Sasnovich

2-6 7-6(7) 6-2#4Cori Gauff

5-7 6-4 6-3#25Anastasia Potapova

6-2 7-6(5)#34Nikola Bartunkova

6-0 6-2#102Eva Lys

6-2 6-2#49Janice Tjen

4-6 6-0 6-2#10Marta Kostyuk

6-1 7-6(5)#49Janice Tjen

6-1 6-0#47Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-1 6-4#26Leylah Annie Fernandez

6-0 6-2#51Karolina Pliskova

4-6 7-5 6-4#43Barbora Krejcikova

7-5 6-4#80Magda Linette

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PKPolina KudermetovaKudermetova

Last 15

0–9

9 core stats · 0 even

Mirra AndreevaAndreevaMA

Mirra Andreeva carries the stronger recent form — Polina Kudermetova's route runs through aces / match.

Serve · 0–5

1st Serve In54.9%+8.5pp63.4%

1st Serve Won66.2%+3.4pp69.6%

2nd Serve Won43.3%+5.0pp48.3%

Aces / Match3.2+0.33.5

Double Faults / Match7.53.5 fewer4.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won41.9%+4.8pp46.7%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted40.0%+8.5pp48.5%

Break Pts Saved50.4%+3.9pp54.3%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won48.7%+5.3pp54.0%

Serve · 0–5

54.9%1st Serve In+8.5pp63.4%

66.2%1st Serve Won+3.4pp69.6%

43.3%2nd Serve Won+5.0pp48.3%

3.2Aces / Match+0.33.5

7.5Double Faults / Match3.5 fewer4.0

Return · 0–1

41.9%Return Pts Won+4.8pp46.7%

Pressure · 0–2

40.0%Break Pts Converted+8.5pp48.5%

50.4%Break Pts Saved+3.9pp54.3%

Points · 0–1

48.7%Total Pts Won+5.3pp54.0%

Polina Kudermetova #108Uzbekistan0Mirra Andreeva #5Russia2

Player Profiles

Polina Kudermetova

Mirra Andreeva

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 20.5

Polina Kudermetova +4.5

Over 2.5

Mirra Andreeva 2-1

Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 5 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Markets to Avoid

Mirra Andreeva

Mirra Andreeva: 12/15 recent winner projections matched

Polina Kudermetova

Mirra Andreeva

Stat Battle