ChinaWTA BeijingFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Iva Jovic #16United States2Harriet Dart #276United Kingdom1

Sets 2-6 · 6-3 · 6-3Sat 3 Oct 2026, 08:48 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions8–373%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageIva Jovic · 260 places

Iva Jovic

United States

Reached a career-high No. 16 in March 2026. Her stated favorite surface is grass, and she won her first WTA title at Guadalajara in 2025.

Current ranking: #16
Peak ranking: #16 · 2026
Current age: 18
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 173 cm

Thiago Moura Monteiro

United Kingdom

Reached a career-high No. 61 in October 2022; the supplied current ranking is No. 276. He is a left-handed baseline player most established on clay, where all 16 of his Challenger finals have been played.

Current ranking: #276
Peak ranking: #61 · 2022
Current age: 32
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 2 Oct 2026, 06:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Jovic is the fresher, higher-ranked player; Dart has three Beijing matches behind her, the last a three-hour three-setter.

Jovic should win, most likely in straight sets. The obvious Jovic prices ask too much: 1.07 to win the match, 1.12 for the first set, 1.30 for a 2-0, 1.25 for under 2.5 sets. Dart at 5.25 to win the first or second set, 8.5 to win the match, 12 for a 2-1, and over 2.5 sets at 3.3, carry an edge.

Context

Dart has played three matches in Beijing, the last of them a three-setter of about three hours that finished two days before this second round. Jovic enters at this stage as a seed without a completed match this week, her most recent outing being the Guadalajara final on 19 September, so the two arrive with opposite competitive rhythms. The asymmetry matters most if this becomes a long, attritional match, where the player with three hours already in her legs has more to absorb. Dart won that match, so the workload is a condition to weigh rather than a demonstrated weakness.
- China Open first round, Beijing, : Dart beat Yihan Qu 6-2 6-7(5) 7-5 in roughly three hours
- Beijing qualifying: Dart beat Tiphanie Lemaitre 6-2 6-3 and Yexin Ma 6-3 6-2
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 06:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Dart took treatment on a leg and thigh mid-match and then played out a further set and a half to win in three sets. Continuing and winning rules out the timeout as evidence of a completed withdrawal, but it leaves an open question about how much the leg takes from her movement two days later. Against Jovic, whose hard-court results have been built on depth from the baseline, any loss of movement would be the most direct way this physical note turns into a playing consequence. The situation remains reported rather than established.
- China Open first round, Beijing, : medical timeout at 2-3 in the second set, treatment to the leg and thigh area
To watchSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 06:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Jovic's most recent completed event was a title defence in Guadalajara in which she lost no sets, and the result lifted her to a career-high No. 13 and a seeded place in Beijing. That is the freshest evidence of her level on the surface this match is played on, and it is why she starts as the higher-ranked player. The counterweight is a two-week gap without competition, so the form has not been carried through a completed round since .
- Guadalajara final, : Jovic beat Peyton Stearns 6-4 6-2
- Guadalajara 2026: Jovic did not drop a set across the draw as defending champion and No. 2 seed
ConfirmedSources checked 2 Oct 2026, 06:05 · Europe/Bucharest
Dart has been winning on hard courts in this window, but usually by the long route rather than in straight sets.
Her 14-match record in that stretch reads five 2-1 wins, five 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses and one 1-2 loss, with an average of 21.2 games per match. Someone who reaches a decider in six of 14 matches is comfortable in third sets, which keeps her in contests longer than her ranking suggests. It also means that any win she does produce is likely to cost her extra time on court against a fresher opponent.
- Dart, hard court, 28 July–1 October 2026: 14 completed matches — five 2-1 wins, five 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses and one 1-2 loss, with one retirement excluded (setEvidence)
- Same 14 matches: total games average 21.2 and total sets average 2.43

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jovic is far higher ranked, is beating top-50 opponents in straight sets on hard courts, and faces an opponent who has spent a lot of time on court this week.
- Jovic is 9-3 on hard in this window and has won 56.2% of hard-court games (140 of 249).
- She won Guadalajara without dropping a set, beating Peyton Stearns 6-4 6-2 in the final.
- Dart is ranked No. 116; her best recent win was over No. 36 Stearns in three sets.
- Dart has already played three matches in Beijing this week, including a three-hour first round.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonIva JovicEstimated chance76%

Games5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dart has been winning and keeps scorelines respectable, so a seven-game margin is a big ask even for a clear favourite.
- Jovic's worst hard-court defeat in this window was a -7 game margin against Gauff.
- Dart has gone to a deciding set in six of 14 hard-court matches.
- Dart's wins over Qu, Ma and Lemaitre were all by four games or more.
- Jovic's straight-set win over Stearns was 12-6, a +6 margin.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonHarriet Dart +6.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dart has been competitive on hard courts and keeps matches close, so a five-game margin for a favourite who sometimes wins narrowly is not guaranteed.
- Jovic's last three straight-set wins finished with game margins of +6, +7 and +9.
- Dart has won 10 of 14 hard-court matches, often in tight three-set contests.
- Dart's matches average 21.2 games, and she took Stearns to three sets.
- Jovic lost to Gauff 1-6 4-6, a -7 game margin, in her most recent hard-court defeat.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonHarriet Dart +4.5Estimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Dart's matches routinely run past 20 games, and a competitive second set or a deciding set would push the total over the line.
- Jovic's hard-court matches average 20.75 games; Dart's average 21.2.
- Dart has played six three-set matches in her last 14 on hard.
- Jovic's hard-court sets: 25 played, with two tiebreaks.
- Dart's three-hour Beijing first round finished 6-2 6-7 7-5.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 20.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Blending both players' opening sets gives an average just under ten games, with Dart's shorter first sets tipping it.
- Dart's first sets average 8.5 games in this window.
- Jovic's recent first sets include a 6-2 and a 6-4 pattern with few tiebreaks.
- Jovic has played only two first-set tiebreaks in 12 hard-court matches.
- Dart's straight-set wins finished 6-3 6-2 and 6-2 6-3.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jovic has repeatedly finished second sets at 6-1 or 6-2, which keeps the total under ten games more often than not.
- Jovic's second sets average 9.5 games, Dart's 9.07.
- Jovic closed her last three wins with 6-2, 6-1 and 6-1 second sets.
- Only one of Jovic's 12 hard-court matches had a second-set tiebreak.
- Dart's second sets have produced three tiebreaks in 14 matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jovic has the stronger opening-set record and the ranking and form edge to take control early.
- Jovic has won the first set in 9 of 12 hard-court matches this window.
- Her first sets average 5.58 games won against 4.67 lost.
- Dart has won the first set in 8 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Jovic's most recent match started with a 6-4 first set.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostIva JovicEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Jovic has a strong second-set record on hard courts and usually closes matches before a decider.
- Jovic has won the second set in 8 of 12 hard-court matches.
- Her second sets average 5.5 games won against 4.0 lost.
- Dart has won the second set in 8 of 14 hard-court matches.
- Jovic closed her most recent win 6-2 in the second set.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonIva JovicEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jovic has been winning in straight sets almost every time on hard courts, and her defeats have also come in two sets.
- Jovic's 12 hard-court matches produced eight 2-0 wins, three 0-2 losses and one 2-1 win.
- She did not drop a set in winning the Guadalajara title.
- Dart has lost in straight sets three times in her last 14 hard-court matches.
- Jovic has won 11 of 15 overall matches in this window.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Jovic has been finishing hard-court matches in straight sets and has the form and ranking edge to do so again.
- Jovic's 12 hard-court matches: eight 2-0 wins, one 2-1 win, three 0-2 defeats.
- She did not drop a set in winning the Guadalajara title.
- Dart has gone to a deciding set in six of 14 hard-court matches.
- Jovic's most recent wins were 6-4 6-2, 6-4 6-1 and 6-2 6-1.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostIva Jovic 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent sets for both players have usually been decided before six-all, so a tiebreak-free match is the more likely outcome.
- Only two of Jovic's 12 hard-court matches reached a tiebreak.
- Only three of Dart's 14 hard-court matches reached a tiebreak.
- Jovic's first sets had two tiebreaks across 12 matches.
- Dart has played 14 hard-court matches with three tiebreaks in total.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance80%

Prediction history

Iva Jovic: 7/9 recent winner projections matched

7 of 9 comparable winner projections favouring Iva Jovic matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Iva Jovic9 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

3 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova1-2#16Iva Jovic

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·58%

Matched

3 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#19Ekaterina Alexandrova1-2#16Iva Jovic

Iva Jovic to win

58%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

1 Jul·WTA Wimbledon

#96Tatjana Maria0-2#16Iva Jovic

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·65%

Matched

1 Jul 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#96Tatjana Maria0-2#16Iva Jovic

Iva Jovic to win

65%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#38Jaqueline Cristian0-2#17Iva Jovic

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·62%

Matched

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#38Jaqueline Cristian0-2#17Iva Jovic

Iva Jovic to win

62%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

10 Jun·WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-0#33Alexandra Eala

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·65%

Matched

10 Jun 2026

WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-0#33Alexandra Eala

Iva Jovic to win

65%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

9 Jun·WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-0#58Antonia Ruzic

BetBugsIva Jovic to win·65%

Matched

9 Jun 2026

WTA London

#19Iva Jovic2-0#58Antonia Ruzic

Iva Jovic to win

65%probability

Iva Jovic won

Matched

Previous match context available

Iva Jovic

11W 4L

6-4 6-2#36Peyton Stearns 6-4 6-1#35Cristina Bucsa

6-2 6-1#48Magdalena Frech

7-6(5) 6-4#58Zeynep Sonmez

6-1 6-4#4Cori Gauff

7-5 3-6 7-5#18Alexandra Eala

6-4 6-4#105Francesca Jones

7-5 6-3#48Magdalena Frech

7-6(0) 7-6(5)#27Marie Bouzkova

6-4 6-3#53Tamara Korpatsch

6-3 6-4#69Alina Korneeva

6-3 7-5#80Magda Linette

4-6 6-3 6-1#3Jessica Pegula

6-3 3-6 6-4#28Ekaterina Alexandrova

6-1 6-2#84Tatjana Maria

Harriet Dart

11W 4L

6-2 6-7(5) 7-5—Unknown Player

6-3 6-2#161Yexin Ma 6-2 6-3#431Tiphanie Lemaitre

6-2 6-2#27Marie Bouzkova

3-6 6-3 6-2#36Peyton Stearns

2-6 6-4 6-1#394Heather Watson

5-7 6-0 6-3#638Kristina Penickova

6-0 6-7(1) 6-1—Jordyn Hazelitt

6-1 7-6(6)#36Peyton Stearns

6-3 6-4#361Aoi Ito

6-3 6-0#106Moyuka Uchijima

3-6 6-0 6-2#136Sloane Stephens

6-3 6-3#91Taylah Preston

6-0 3-6 3-0 ret.#891Emma Dong

6-2 6-1#166Kayla Cross

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

IJIva JovicJovic

Last 15

5–3

9 core stats · 1 even

Harriet DartDartHD

Iva Jovic carries the stronger recent form — Harriet Dart's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In57.7%+5.3pp52.4%

1st Serve Won63.1%+5.5pp68.6%

2nd Serve Won50.8%+7.9pp42.9%

Aces / Match2.9+0.82.1

Double Faults / Match2.12.4 fewer4.5

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won46.2%+3.4pp49.6%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

Break Pts Converted51.1%+4.5pp46.6%

Break Pts Saved62.5%—62.2%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won52.1%+0.9pp53.0%

Shot making · 2–0 · 1 evenLimited data · 7 vs 5

Winners / Match7/15 · 5/1525.3+3.521.8

Unforced Errors / Match7/15 · 5/1528.9—28.8

Net Pts Won7/15 · 5/1572.5%+3.9pp68.6%

Serve · 4–1

57.7%1st Serve In+5.3pp52.4%

63.1%1st Serve Won+5.5pp68.6%

50.8%2nd Serve Won+7.9pp42.9%

2.9Aces / Match+0.82.1

2.1Double Faults / Match2.4 fewer4.5

Return · 0–1

46.2%Return Pts Won+3.4pp49.6%

Pressure · 1–0 · 1 even

51.1%Break Pts Converted+4.5pp46.6%

62.5%Break Pts Saved—62.2%

Points · 0–1

52.1%Total Pts Won+0.9pp53.0%

Shot making · 2–0 · 1 evenLimited data · 7 vs 5

25.3Winners7/15 · 5/15+3.521.8

28.9Unforced Errors7/15 · 5/15—28.8

72.5%Net Pts Won7/15 · 5/15+3.9pp68.6%

Iva Jovic #16United States2Harriet Dart #276United Kingdom1

Player Profiles

Iva Jovic

Thiago Moura Monteiro

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Harriet Dart

Harriet Dart

Harriet Dart

Harriet Dart 2-1

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games5 of 5 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Iva Jovic: 7/9 recent winner projections matched

Iva Jovic

Harriet Dart

Stat Battle