ChinaWTA BeijingFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Dayana Yastremska #87Ukraine2Maja Chwalinska #21Poland0

Sets 6-3 · 6-1Fri 2 Oct 2026, 05:00 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–645%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaja Chwalinska · 66 places

Dayana Yastremska

Ukraine

Yastremska reached a career-high No. 21 in January 2020. ITF lists hard courts as her preferred surface.

Current ranking: #87
Peak ranking: #21 · 2020
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Maja Chwalinska

Poland

Her current No. 21 ranking is also her career high. The left-hander reached the 2026 Roland Garros final and is coached by Jaroslav Machovsky.

Current ranking: #21
Peak ranking: #21
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 164 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Oct 2026, 15:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Chwalinska, the No. 17 seed, opens her Beijing campaign after a bye, while Yastremska has already won a match here.

Chwalinska is only 4-5 on hard courts this window, yet she holds the higher ranking and the better recent wins, and she looks the likelier winner. Chwalinska to win the match at 1.55 and to take the opening set at 1.55 are the two prices with anything in them.

Context

The Singapore week is the strongest recent evidence behind Chwalinska's No. 17 seeding because it came on hard courts, the surface where her 2026 results behind the Roland Garros run were thinnest. Beating the defending champion and dropping only 11 games across three matches is a different quality of evidence from her clay form, and it explains why she arrives in Beijing with her ranking and her recent results pointing the same way. The counterpoint is that she took the opening set against Fernandez and still lost, so the week also showed a remaining gap in closing matches against ranked opposition.
- Chwalinska defeated defending champion and fourth seed Elise Mertens 6-2, 6-2 in the Singapore Open quarter-finals .
- It was her first career win over a top-20 opponent, and she had conceded only 11 games in three matches that week.
- She lost the semi-final to Leylah Fernandez 1-6, 6-4, 6-2, having won the opening set 6-1.
- After the quarter-final she said she had stayed patient and that her hard work was paying off.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 15:30 · Europe/Bucharest
Yastremska arrived in Beijing without a win since June, so a straight-set first-round result is the first current evidence that she is closing matches on hard courts again. Reaching the second round for a third consecutive year also puts her in a familiar position at this event rather than a rebuilding one, which matters with her ranking well below the career high she set in 2020. The limitation is opponent quality: McNally is unseeded, and Yastremska's 2026 hard-court results include a straight-set loss to Tatjana Maria and a three-set loss to Lucrezia Stefanini. One win restores continuity without showing that her level has changed against a seeded player.
- Yastremska defeated Caty McNally 6-3, 6-4 in the first round of the Beijing WTA 1000 .
- The result ended a four-match losing streak and was her first win in three months.
- She has now reached the second round in Beijing in three consecutive years.
- Her second-round opponent is No. 17 seed Maja Chwalinska.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 15:30 · Europe/Bucharest
The seeded left-hander has been the faster starter of the two in this window.
Yastremska won the opening set in only two of her four hard-court matches over the same period, so the first set shapes as the stage where the ranking gap shows most clearly. Three of Chwalinska's nine opening sets still went against her, and she lost the Singapore semi-final after taking the first set 6-1, so this describes a tendency rather than a settled outcome.
- Chwalinska won the opening set in 6 of 9 hard-court matches between 2026-08-04 and 2026-09-26.
- Her opening sets in that sample averaged 5.0 games won and 3.4 games lost.
- She lost the opening set in the other 3 matches of the sample.
Reaching a Grand Slam final from qualifying moved Chwalinska from No. 114 to a career-high No. 21 within a month, which is why she is a seeded player at this WTA 1000 rather than an unseeded qualifier. The jump explains why her 2026 season reads as a step change rather than a hot streak, and why the seed line beside her name reflects genuine results. The limitation is surface: the run that produced the ranking came on clay, and she had comparatively few tour-level hard-court results before Singapore. Beijing is where that breakthrough meets a hard-court WTA 1000 field.
- Chwalinska reached the 2026 Roland Garros final as a qualifier.
- She was ranked No. 114 before that run and climbed to a career-high No. 21 in June 2026.
- She is seeded No. 17 at the Beijing WTA 1000.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 15:30 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.49

BetBugs 67% · Market 69%

−2.0ppshort

Chwalinska has been winning in straight sets when she wins, and Yastremska has been beaten in straight sets in two of four hard matches, making a two-set match the likelier outcome.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
The higher-ranked, seeded left-hander has the stronger hard-court results and a recent straight-sets win over a top-20 opponent, while Yastremska has lost three of her last four on the surface.
- Chwalinska is ranked No. 21 and seeded No. 17; Yastremska is No. 111 and unseeded.
- On hard courts this window Chwalinska is 4-5 with 52.4% of games won; Yastremska is 1-3 with 44.4%.
- Chwalinska beat Elise Mertens 6-2 6-2 and reached the Singapore semi-finals, dropping only 11 games across three matches there.
- Yastremska ended a four-match losing run with a 6-3 6-4 first-round win over Caty McNally.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMaja ChwalinskaEstimated chance70%

Games3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chwalinska has been winning by clear margins when she wins, while Yastremska has been beaten comfortably in three of her four hard-court matches.
- Chwalinska's three listed hard-court wins this window came by margins of +8, +11 and +6 games.
- All four of her hard-court wins in the nine-match sample were in straight sets.
- Yastremska's hard-court losses this window came by -6, 0 and -9 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMaja Chwalinska -1.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' opening sets have tended to finish in the 6-2 to 6-4 range, which lands under the line.
- Chwalinska's hard-court opening sets averaged 8.44 games across nine matches.
- Yastremska's hard-court opening sets averaged 8.25 games across four matches.
- Chwalinska's recent first sets finished 6-2, 6-0 and 6-4.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Yastremska's matches have generally been competitive and her recent losses were not all heavy, so a 4.5-game cushion is reasonable.
- Yastremska's four hard-court matches this window averaged 22.5 total games.
- She took a set in two of her three hard-court defeats in this window.
- Chwalinska has lost five of nine hard-court matches in the sample.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonDayana Yastremska +4.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Yastremska's matches tend to run long while Chwalinska's shorter wins pull the average down, leaving the 20.5 line close to a coin flip with a slight lean over.
- Yastremska's hard-court matches this window averaged 22.5 total games.
- Chwalinska's hard-court matches averaged 18.9 total games across nine matches.
- Chwalinska's hard-court matches averaged 2.22 sets and Yastremska's 2.5 sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 20.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The averages point slightly below the line, helped by Chwalinska's short second sets in her wins.
- Chwalinska's hard-court second sets averaged 8.67 games.
- Yastremska's hard-court second sets averaged 9.25 games.
- Chwalinska's most recent second-set wins were 6-2 and 6-1.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Chwalinska has been winning in straight sets when she wins, and Yastremska has been beaten in straight sets in two of four hard matches, making a two-set match the likelier outcome.
- Chwalinska's nine hard-court matches produced 2-0 scorelines four times and Yastremska's four hard matches produced one 2-0.
- Chwalinska's hard-court matches averaged 2.22 sets.
- Yastremska's hard-court matches averaged 2.5 sets.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance67%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Chwalinska has started matches strongly on hard courts while Yastremska has split opening sets, so the left-hander is favoured to take the first set.
- Chwalinska won the opening set in 6 of 9 hard-court matches this window.
- Yastremska won the opening set in 2 of 4 hard-court matches this window.
- Chwalinska opened with 6-2, 6-0 and 6-4 set wins in her three most recent victories.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostMaja ChwalinskaEstimated chance67%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chwalinska closed out all her recent wins in two sets, though her overall second-set record is closer to even.
- Chwalinska won the second set in 4 of 9 hard-court matches this window.
- All four of her hard-court wins were straight sets, so she took the second set in each.
- Yastremska won the second set in 2 of 4 hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMaja ChwalinskaEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chwalinska has been closing out hard-court wins without dropping a set, and Yastremska has lost in straight sets recently.
- All four of Chwalinska's hard-court wins in the nine-match sample were in straight sets.
- Her listed wins were 6-2 6-2, 6-0 6-1 and 6-4 6-2.
- Yastremska has been beaten in straight sets in two of her last four hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostMaja Chwalinska 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent hard-court sets for both players have generally been settled before 6-6, so a tiebreak-free match is the likelier outcome.
- Only 2 of the 13 sampled hard-court matches involving these players went to a tiebreak.
- Chwalinska's hard-court sets averaged 8.4 to 8.7 games.
- Yastremska's hard-court sets averaged 8.25 to 9.25 games.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Yastremska's serve alone has been producing more than five double faults per match, and Chwalinska adds a steady two per match, so the combined total should clear the line.
- Yastremska averaged 5.5 double faults per match on hard (22 in 4 matches).
- Chwalinska averaged 2.1 double faults per match on hard (19 in 9 matches).
- Yastremska's average hard-court match lasted 108.8 minutes.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 5.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Yastremska's serve supplies most of the ace count and should be enough on its own to push the total past the line in a two-set match.
- Yastremska averaged 2.5 aces per match on hard this window (10 in 4 matches).
- Chwalinska averaged 0.6 aces per match on hard (5 in 9 matches).
- Expected match length is around 2.3 sets.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Prediction history

Maja Chwalinska: 7/8 recent winner projections matched

7 of 8 comparable winner projections favouring Maja Chwalinska matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Maja Chwalinska8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

29 Jun·WTA Wimbledon

#164Mananchaya Sawangkaew2-1#21Maja Chwalinska

BetBugsMaja Chwalinska to win·78%

Missed

29 Jun 2026

WTA Wimbledon

#164Mananchaya Sawangkaew2-1#21Maja Chwalinska

Maja Chwalinska to win

78%probability

Mananchaya Sawangkaew won

Missed

3 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#24Anna Kalinskaya0-2#114Maja Chwalinska

BetBugsMaja Chwalinska to win·55%

Matched

3 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#24Anna Kalinskaya0-2#114Maja Chwalinska

Maja Chwalinska to win

55%probability

Maja Chwalinska won

Matched

1 Jun·WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska2-0#92Diane Parry

BetBugsMaja Chwalinska to win·55%

Matched

1 Jun 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#114Maja Chwalinska2-0#92Diane Parry

Maja Chwalinska to win

55%probability

Maja Chwalinska won

Matched

21 May·WTA Roland Garros

#116Maja Chwalinska2-0#129Suzan Lamens

BetBugsMaja Chwalinska to win·72%

Matched

21 May 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#116Maja Chwalinska2-0#129Suzan Lamens

Maja Chwalinska to win

72%probability

Maja Chwalinska won

Matched

20 May·WTA Roland Garros

#116Maja Chwalinska2-0#195Carole Monnet

BetBugsMaja Chwalinska to win·72%

Matched

20 May 2026

WTA Roland Garros

#116Maja Chwalinska2-0#195Carole Monnet

Maja Chwalinska to win

72%probability

Maja Chwalinska won

Matched

Previous match context available

Dayana Yastremska

8W 7L

6-3 6-4#72Caty McNally

6-3 4-6 6-1#125Lucrezia Stefanini

2-6 6-3 7-6(5)#49Janice Tjen

6-1 6-2#84Tatjana Maria

6-3 6-7(1) 6-2#96Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

7-6(1) 4-6 7-5#361Aoi Ito

6-1 6-2#84Tatjana Maria

6-4 7-6(2)#251Alicia Dudeney

4-6 6-4 7-5#103Ajla Tomljanovic

6-1 6-2#29Sara Bejlek

7-5 6-3#20Jasmine Paolini

6-3 6-3#43Barbora Krejcikova

7-6(5) 6-7(4) 7-6(5)#96Jessica Bouzas Maneiro

6-3 7-5#93Solana Sierra

6-3 6-2#86Hanne Vandewinkel

Maja Chwalinska

8W 7L

1-6 6-4 6-2#26Leylah Annie Fernandez 6-2 6-2#19Elise Mertens

6-0 6-1#47Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-4 6-2#152Rebecca Sramkova

6-2 6-3#92Taylor Townsend

3-6 6-2 6-2#70Alycia Parks

6-2 7-6(3)#14Diana Shnaider

6-2 6-2#35Cristina Bucsa

7-5 6-1#37Talia Gibson

2-6 7-5 6-2#90Mananchaya Sawangkaew

6-3 6-2#5Mirra Andreeva

7-6(4) 6-4#14Diana Shnaider

7-6(3) 6-3#22Anna Kalinskaya

6-3 6-2#31Diane Parry

1-6 6-3 6-2#33Maria Sakkari

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

DYDayana YastremskaYastremska

Last 15

2–7

9 core stats · 0 even

Maja ChwalinskaChwalinskaMC

Maja Chwalinska carries the stronger recent form — Dayana Yastremska's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In65.1%+5.4pp70.5%

1st Serve Won61.7%+1.2pp60.5%

2nd Serve Won45.4%+2.7pp48.1%

Aces / Match2.1+1.40.7

Double Faults / Match3.61.6 fewer2.0

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won43.2%+2.2pp45.4%

Pressure · 0–2

Break Pts Converted37.3%+15.4pp52.7%

Break Pts Saved49.2%+8.9pp58.1%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won49.3%+1.9pp51.2%

Serve · 2–3

65.1%1st Serve In+5.4pp70.5%

61.7%1st Serve Won+1.2pp60.5%

45.4%2nd Serve Won+2.7pp48.1%

2.1Aces / Match+1.40.7

3.6Double Faults / Match1.6 fewer2.0

Return · 0–1

43.2%Return Pts Won+2.2pp45.4%

Pressure · 0–2

37.3%Break Pts Converted+15.4pp52.7%

49.2%Break Pts Saved+8.9pp58.1%

Points · 0–1

49.3%Total Pts Won+1.9pp51.2%

Dayana Yastremska

Maja Chwalinska

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Maja Chwalinska

Maja Chwalinska

Under 2.5

Over 20.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games3 of 5 landed

Sets1 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Dayana Yastremska

Maja Chwalinska

Stat Battle