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Predictions graded

Leylah Annie Fernandez #34Canada2Maja Chwalinska #21Poland1

Sets 1-6 · 6-4 · 6-2Sat 26 Sept 2026, 10:05 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalI.hard

Predictions5–645%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaja Chwalinska · 13 places

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Canada

A 23-year-old left-hander who reached a career-high No. 13 on August 8, 2022. She has won five WTA singles titles and was the 2021 US Open runner-up.

Current ranking: #34
Peak ranking: #13 · 2022
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 168 cm

Maja Chwalinska

Poland

Her current No. 21 ranking is also her career high. The left-hander reached the 2026 Roland Garros final and is coached by Jaroslav Machovsky.

Current ranking: #21
Peak ranking: #21
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 164 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 25 Sep 2026, 22:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Two left-handers meet for the first time with a place in the Singapore final on the line.

Fernandez arrives off a 6-2, 7-5 win over top seed Mirra Andreeva and has the stronger hard-court serve; Chwalinska has not dropped a set this week. Fernandez looks the likelier winner, but her 1.65 match price offers little extra. Two quoted prices do: the match to finish in straight sets at 1.5, and Fernandez to win 2-0 at 2.4.

Context

Andreeva arrived as the tournament's top seed and the reigning Roland Garros champion, so removing her is the strongest result of Fernandez's week. Fernandez led 5-2 in the second set before Andreeva levelled at 5-5, then broke again in the 12th game to close the match in 1 hour 32 minutes, a scoreline that hides how close the second set became. She now holds a 3-2 record against Andreeva, with both 2026 wins on hard courts. The limitation is that Andreeva finished with 41 unforced errors to Fernandez's 30, so part of the winning margin came from an opponent well below her usual level.
- 6-2, 7-5 win over top seed Mirra Andreeva, the world No. 5, .
- First tour-level semifinal of the 2026 season and her first at tour level since Hong Kong in 2025.
- Ninth career win over a top-10 opponent and her second over Andreeva on hard courts in 2026, after Toronto.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 22:13 · Europe/BucharestSingapore Tennis Open match reporten.tennistemple.com · 25 Sep 2026
Mertens won this title in 2025 and had arrived at the quarterfinal with a first-round bye and a second-round walkover, so this was her first completed match of the week. Chwalinska broke the match open from 2-2 in the first set, taking seven straight games and nine of the last 10, and has now dropped only 11 games across three straight-sets wins here. It matters because she had never previously beaten a top-20 opponent, which is the level she meets again in this semifinal. The limitation is that her earlier 6-4, 0-6... her earlier straight-sets win over Mertens came on Roland Garros clay in May, so that result does not transfer directly to an indoor hard court.
- 6-2, 6-2 win over Elise Mertens, the 2025 Singapore champion and world No. 19, in the quarterfinals .
- First win of Chwalinska's career over a top-20 opponent.
- Three straight-sets wins in Singapore for 11 games conceded.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 22:13 · Europe/BucharestSingapore Tennis Open match reporten.tennistemple.com · 25 Sep 2026
Her results after Paris were early exits at Wimbledon, Toronto, Monterrey and the US Open, with a single Cincinnati win, so a WTA 500 semifinal is a sharp break from the form she carried into this swing. The three wins here have all been in straight sets with only 11 games dropped, which means she arrives without the accumulated court time a longer route would have created. The counterpoint is that Sramkova and Oliynykova were ranked No. 146 and No. 47, so the Mertens result is the only evidence this week against an opponent at Fernandez's level.
- Between Roland Garros and Singapore she won one tour-level match against five defeats, with first-match losses at Wimbledon, Toronto, Monterrey and the US Open.
- Three straight-sets wins in Singapore, the longest tour-level winning run of her season outside Roland Garros.
- First tour-level semifinal since the 2026 Roland Garros final.
ConfirmedSources checked 25 Sep 2026, 22:13 · Europe/Bucharest
Fernandez has been starting and finishing hard-court matches quickly, with first sets averaging 8.4 games in the same sample.
If Fernandez gets ahead in Singapore, the recent pattern points to a two-set finish rather than a long match, which is the record behind expecting a short semifinal. The counterweight is that her four hard-court defeats split evenly between two three-set losses and two straight-set losses, so the same decisiveness has worked against her when she is the one behind.
- 12 completed hard-court matches tracked from 27 July to 25 September 2026, with no retirements in the sample.
- Scorelines: eight 2-0 wins, two 1-2 defeats, two 0-2 defeats; 2.17 sets and 19.3 games per match on average.
- Set one: 10 wins and 2 losses, averaging 5.5 games won to 2.9 lost, with one tiebreak across the 12 matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Fernandez has the stronger serve numbers and game record on this surface, and she arrives off a straight-sets win over the fifth-ranked player.
- Hard-court record in this window: 8-4, with 58.6% of games won (136 of 232).
- Won 67.0% of first-serve points on hard versus 59.6% for Chwalinska.
- Beat world No. 5 Mirra Andreeva 6-2, 7-5 in the quarterfinals.
- Chwalinska won one tour-level match between Roland Garros and this week.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLeylah Annie FernandezEstimated chance61%

Games2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chwalinska only has to stay within four games, and her week in Singapore has produced no close matches.
- Chwalinska needs only to avoid losing by five games or more.
- Her Singapore margins are +8, +11 and +6 in her favour.
- Fernandez's average hard-court game margin this window is +3.3 per match.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMaja Chwalinska +4.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
First sets have been short for both players, who win their openers by wide margins or lose them quickly.
- First-set average total games: 8.4 for Fernandez, 8.6 for Chwalinska.
- No first-set tiebreaks for either player in 20 combined hard-court matches.
- Chwalinska's Singapore openers were 6-2, 6-0 and 6-4.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The pair's combined second-set average sits just under the line, helped by Chwalinska's short sets this week.
- Combined second-set average is 9.0 games (Fernandez 9.5, Chwalinska 8.5).
- Chwalinska's second sets in Singapore totalled eight, seven and eight games.
- One second-set tiebreak each in their hard-court samples.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Fernandez's recent hard-court wins have generally come by five games or more, so a three-game cushion is a reasonable ask.
- Recent hard-court game margins: +6 (Andreeva), +5 (Parks), +7 (Okamura), 0 (Pegula), +7 (Sawangkaew), +7 (Zhang).
- Fernandez has won 58.6% of her hard-court games this window.
- Five of her six listed hard-court matches were won by five games or more.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostLeylah Annie Fernandez -2.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent matches for both players have mostly stayed under 20 games, with Chwalinska's week particularly short.
- Combined hard-court average of 18.9 total games (377 games across 20 matches).
- Chwalinska's last three Singapore matches lasted 16, 13 and 18 games.
- Fernandez's three Singapore matches lasted 20, 19 and 17 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 19.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both have been winning without dropping sets this week and across most of their hard-court matches.
- Eight of Fernandez's 12 hard-court matches were 2-0 scorelines.
- Four of Chwalinska's eight hard-court matches were 2-0 wins.
- Fernandez has won all three Singapore matches in straight sets; Chwalinska the same.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65
The read
Fernandez has started almost every hard-court match strongly and has taken the opener in each of her wins this week.
- Fernandez has won 10 of 12 opening sets on hard this window.
- She won the first set in all three Singapore matches (6-2, 6-4, 6-2).
- She averages 5.5 games won to 2.9 lost in first sets.
- Chwalinska is 5-3 in first sets on hard.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostLeylah Annie FernandezEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Fernandez's advantage carries into the second set, where she has won two thirds of her hard-court sets.
- Fernandez has won 8 of 12 second sets on hard this window.
- Chwalinska has split her hard-court second sets 4-4.
- Fernandez averages 5.4 games won to 4.1 lost in second sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonLeylah Annie FernandezEstimated chance58%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most recent sets for both players have been decided by breaks rather than reaching 6-6.
- Two tiebreaks across 43 combined sets in their hard-court samples.
- Fernandez's hard-court matches average 19.3 games; Chwalinska's 18.1.
- Total sets average 2.17 for Fernandez and 2.13 for Chwalinska.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance76%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both are low-ace servers, with Chwalinska rarely hitting more than one in a match.
- Combined hard-court ace rate of 2.7 per match.
- Chwalinska averages under one ace per match on this surface.
- Fernandez's hard-court ace rate is 2.1 per match.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The pair's combined double-fault rate sits just under seven per match, with Chwalinska particularly steady.
- Combined hard-court double-fault average is 6.1 per match.
- Chwalinska averages 2.3 double faults per hard-court match.
- Fernandez's hard-court rate is 3.8 per match.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableUnder 6.5Estimated chance55%

Previous match context available

Leylah Annie Fernandez

9W 6L

6-2 7-5#5Mirra Andreeva 6-4 6-3#70Alycia Parks 6-2 6-3#322Kyoka Okamura

1-6 6-4 6-3#3Jessica Pegula

6-4 6-1#88Mananchaya Sawangkaew

6-3 6-2#55Shuai Zhang

3-6 6-2 6-2#82Xiyu Wang

6-4 6-4#17Naomi Osaka

6-1 6-4#5Mirra Andreeva

6-2 6-2#92Renata Zarazua

6-2 7-6(1)#18Alexandra Eala

6-1 6-4#74Magda Linette

6-1 7-6(3)#46Janice Tjen

6-3 6-4#40Xinyu Wang

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#54Katie Boulter

Maja Chwalinska

9W 6L

6-2 6-2#19Elise Mertens

6-0 6-1#47Oleksandra Oliynykova

6-4 6-2#146Rebecca Sramkova

6-2 6-3#89Taylor Townsend

3-6 6-2 6-2#70Alycia Parks

6-2 7-6(3)#14Diana Shnaider

6-2 6-2#35Cristina Bucsa

7-5 6-1#63Talia Gibson

2-6 7-5 6-2#88Mananchaya Sawangkaew

6-3 6-2#5Mirra Andreeva

7-6(4) 6-4#14Diana Shnaider

7-6(3) 6-3#21Anna Kalinskaya

6-3 6-2#30Diane Parry

1-6 6-3 6-2#33Maria Sakkari

6-4 6-0#19Elise Mertens

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

LFLeylah Annie FernandezFernandez

Last 15

3–5

9 core stats · 1 even

Maja ChwalinskaChwalinskaMC

Maja Chwalinska carries the stronger recent form — Leylah Annie Fernandez's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In61.6%+9.4pp71.0%

1st Serve Won65.9%+5.4pp60.5%

2nd Serve Won46.9%+2.0pp48.9%

Aces / Match2.5+1.80.7

Double Faults / Match4.62.5 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won44.5%+1.7pp46.2%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.7%+4.4pp53.1%

Break Pts Saved62.5%+2.7pp59.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

Total Pts Won51.8%—51.8%

Serve · 2–3

61.6%1st Serve In+9.4pp71.0%

65.9%1st Serve Won+5.4pp60.5%

46.9%2nd Serve Won+2.0pp48.9%

2.5Aces / Match+1.80.7

4.6Double Faults / Match2.5 fewer2.1

Return · 0–1

44.5%Return Pts Won+1.7pp46.2%

Pressure · 1–1

48.7%Break Pts Converted+4.4pp53.1%

62.5%Break Pts Saved+2.7pp59.8%

Points · 0–0 · 1 even

51.8%Total Pts Won—51.8%

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Maja Chwalinska

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Leylah Annie Fernandez 2-0

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 5 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Leylah Annie Fernandez

Maja Chwalinska

Stat Battle