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Predictions graded

Maja Chwalinska #116Poland2Suzan Lamens #1290

Sets 7-6 · 7-5Thu 21 May 2026, 09:08 Predictions gradedQ3Clay

Predictions4–544%

Edges4–267%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaja Chwalinska · 13 places

Maja Chwalinska

Poland

Reached a career-high No. 113 on 2026-05-04. Her strongest recent results include WTA 125 singles titles at Florianopolis, Montreux and Oeiras, all on clay.

Current ranking: #116
Peak ranking: #113 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 164 cm

Suzan Lamens

Reached a career-high No. 57 on 2025-09-22. WTA lists hard as her favorite surface, and her 2025 season included main-draw appearances at all four majors with second rounds at the Australian Open, Wimbledon and US Open.

Current ranking: #129
Peak ranking: #57 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 168 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 20 May 2026, 21:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Chwalinska's dominant form, superior clay record, and a crushing H2H win make her a strong favorite.

The best value is in Chwalinska to win 2-0 at 1.80, with a 9-12 point edge over implied probability. Under 19.5 total games at 1.91 also offers value, given her recent straight-set blowouts.

Context

Last four wins: 6-0 6-1, 6-0 6-3, 6-4 6-0, 6-1 6-0 — all straight sets with a combined game differential of +33.
- In Paris qualifying, she beat Alice Rame (6-0 6-3) and Carole Monnet (6-0 6-1), losing only four games across two matches.
- She has won the first set in 13 of her last 15 matches, often racing to early leads.
In Paris qualifying, Lamens beat Begu 6-4 6-7(7) 6-3, a tight three-setter against a player outside the top 200.
- On May 13, she lost 0-6 6-3 7-6(5) to Hietaranta, ranked 357, on clay — including a 0-6 first set.
- Lamens has lost the first set in three of her last five matches, often starting slowly.
Chwalinska won 6-1 6-2 in February 2026 on indoor hard, losing only three games.
- She won 64% of return points and converted 5 of 6 break points (83%).
- Lamens won only 33% of return points and 29% on second serve in that match.
Career second-serve win rate: Lamens 42.5% vs. Chwalinska 49.3%.
- Lamens double-faults at a 7.9% career rate, averaging over three per match.
- In the H2H, Lamens won only 29% of second-serve points and double-faulted twice in a short match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Chwalinska's dominant H2H, superior clay pedigree, and blistering recent form (especially in Paris qualifying) give her a clear edge over Lamens, who has struggled against lower-ranked opponents on clay recently.
- Chwalinska won the only H2H meeting 6-1 6-2 on i.hard in Feb 2026, dominating return points (64% won) and converting 83% of break points.
- Chwalinska is 12-5 on clay in 2026 with a 66% career win rate on the surface; Lamens is 8-7 on clay in 2026 with a 56% career clay win rate.
- In the last 5 matches, Chwalinska has dropped only 8 games across 4 straight-set wins, including two 6-0 6-1/6-0 6-3 qualifying wins this week.
- Lamens needed three sets to beat Begu (ranked 211) in qualifying and lost to Hietaranta (ranked 357) on clay last week.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMaja ChwalinskaEstimated chance72%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Chwalinska's trend of quick first sets, combined with Lamens' vulnerability early, points to a first set with few games, likely under 8.5.
- Chwalinska's last four first sets: 6-0, 6-0, 6-0, 6-3 (average 7.5 games).
- Lamens lost the first set 0-6 to Hietaranta and 5-7 to Tagger in recent matches.
- In the H2H, the first set was 6-1 (7 games).
- Chwalinska's first-serve win percentage (59%) and return dominance (49% return points won) put pressure on Lamens' serve early.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 8.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given Chwalinska's recent straight-set blowouts and the one-sided H2H, a match total under 20.5 games is likely if she maintains her current level.
- Chwalinska's last four wins have all finished with 17 or fewer total games (12, 12, 7, 12).
- The H2H match had only 15 total games.
- Lamens' last three losses on clay have averaged 20.3 total games, but Chwalinska's dominant form suggests a quicker match.
- Chwalinska's return points won percentage (49% career) and break point conversion (50%) indicate she can break serve efficiently.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 20.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Chwalinska's ability to win comfortably by large margins in recent matches, coupled with Lamens' defensive vulnerabilities, makes a -4.5 game handicap achievable.
- Chwalinska's last four wins have had game differentials of +11, +9, +11, +8.
- The H2H had a game differential of +9 for Chwalinska.
- Lamens' losses on clay this year include margins of -6, -5, -5, and -4 games.
- Chwalinska's return game strength (49% return points won) and Lamens' weak second serve (42% won) suggest multiple breaks.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMaja Chwalinska -4.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Chwalinska wins the first set comfortably, she is likely to maintain pressure in the second, leading to another low-game set, though Lamens may fight harder to stay in the match.
- Chwalinska's last four second sets: 6-1, 6-3, 6-1, 6-0 (average 7.25 games).
- Lamens lost the second set 2-6 to Tagger and 3-6 to Montgomery recently.
- In the H2H, the second set was 6-2 (8 games).
- Lamens' second-serve win rate (42%) is a liability that Chwalinska can exploit.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chwalinska's exceptional first-set record in recent matches and her dominance in the H2H opener suggest she will start strongly again, while Lamens has been vulnerable early in matches.
- Chwalinska has won the first set in 13 of her last 15 matches, including all five most recent matches.
- In the H2H, Chwalinska won the first set 6-1.
- Lamens lost the first set in 3 of her last 5 matches, including against Hietaranta (0-6) and Tagger (5-7).
- Chwalinska's first-set win conversion rate is 88% career, indicating she closes out matches when winning the opener.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMaja ChwalinskaEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chwalinska's dominant form and Lamens' inconsistency make a straight-set victory the most likely outcome, with Chwalinska's high conversion rate after winning the first set reinforcing this.
- Chwalinska has won in straight sets in 13 of her last 15 matches.
- Lamens has gone to three sets in 3 of her last 5 matches, but those were against lower-ranked opponents.
- The H2H was a straight-set win for Chwalinska.
- Chwalinska's first-set win conversion rate of 88% suggests she rarely loses after winning the first set.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chwalinska's consistency in closing out sets and her superior second-serve performance make her likely to win the second set, especially if she takes the first as expected.
- Chwalinska has won the second set in 12 of her last 15 matches, including all five most recent matches.
- In the H2H, Chwalinska won the second set 6-2.
- Lamens has lost the second set in 3 of her last 5 matches, including a 2-6 set against Tagger and a 3-6 set against Montgomery.
- Chwalinska's win-on-second-serve rate (49%) is significantly higher than Lamens' (42%), giving her an edge in longer rallies.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonMaja ChwalinskaEstimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Chwalinska's recent matches have been one-sided, and Lamens has not been involved in close sets lately, making a tiebreak unlikely.
- Chwalinska has not played a tiebreak in her last 15 matches.
- Lamens has played 3 tiebreaks in her last 15 matches, but none in her last 5.
- The H2H had no tiebreaks.
- Chwalinska's dominant set scores (6-0, 6-1, 6-3) suggest she wins sets comfortably without needing tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, especially on clay, and the H2H showed no aces, making under 5.5 total aces likely.
- Chwalinska averages 0.8 aces per match (career ace rate 0.8%).
- Lamens averages 2.6 aces per match (career ace rate 2.6%).
- In the H2H, neither player recorded an ace (stats show null for aces).
- Clay courts typically reduce ace counts due to slower surface speed.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Lamens' high double-fault rate and the potential for nervy moments in a high-stakes match could push the total double faults over 5.5, though Chwalinska's low rate tempers this.
- Lamens has a high double-fault rate of 7.9% (career), averaging over 3 double faults per match.
- Chwalinska's double-fault rate is 3.3%, but she still averages around 2 per match.
- In the H2H, there were 3 double faults total (1 by Chwalinska, 2 by Lamens) in a short match.
- Pressure situations in a Grand Slam qualifying final could increase double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-1 6-2Maja Chwalinska#116vSuzan Lamens#129Feb 13, 2026

1 total meetings

Maja Chwalinska

10W 5L

6-0 6-1#195Carole Monnet

6-0 6-3#197Alice Rame

6-3 ret.#353Federica Urgesi

4-6 6-3 6-2#181Jessika Ponchet

3-6 7-5 6-2#335Lisa Zaar

6-4 6-0#415Amandine Hesse

6-1 6-3#101Sinja Kraus

6-2 6-0#336Robin Montgomery

6-1 6-0#93Simona Waltert

6-0 6-4#78Beatriz Haddad Maia

3-6 6-2 6-4#127Kaitlin Quevedo

6-3 6-1#134Tamara Zidansek

6-7(1) 6-3 7-6(7)#134Tamara Zidansek

6-0 6-0—Ada Kumru

2-6 6-3 7-5#110Moyuka Uchijima

Suzan Lamens

8W 7L

6-4 6-7(7) 6-3#211Irina-Camelia Begu

6-4 6-3#191Lina Gjorcheska

0-6 6-3 7-6(5)#357Laura Hietaranta

6-3 6-2#263Julie Belgraver

7-5 6-2#91Lilli Tagger

6-4 6-3#135Elvina Kalieva

6-4 3-6 6-4#336Robin Montgomery

7-6(4) 6-3#186Carol Young Suh Lee

6-1 7-6(5)#176Teodora Kostovic

6-7(3) 6-4 6-2#825Malene Helgo

6-2 6-2#278Ayla Aksu

3-6 6-0 6-2#214Ekaterine Gorgodze

7-6(5) 6-1#58Anna Bondar

6-3 7-5#159Leyre Romero Gormaz

6-3 7-6(4)#334Yasmine Kabbaj

Maja Chwalinska #116Poland2Suzan Lamens #1290

Player Profiles

Maja Chwalinska

Suzan Lamens

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Maja Chwalinska 2-0

Chwalinska, M 2-0

Under 19.5

Maja Chwalinska -4.5

Maja Chwalinska

Maja Chwalinska

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 4 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Maja Chwalinska

Suzan Lamens