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Predictions graded

Paula Badosa Gibert #83Spain2Daria Kasatkina #61Australia1

Sets 4-6 · 7-6 · 6-4Thu 1 Oct 2026, 06:05 Predictions gradedFirst RoundHard

Predictions3–633%

Edges1–325%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageDaria Kasatkina · 22 places

Paula Badosa

Spain

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 2 in April 2022. Badosa is a right-hander whose preferred surface is hard courts.

Current ranking: #83
Peak ranking: #2 · 2022
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Daria Kasatkina

Australia

Reached career-high No. 8 on 24 October 2022. The WTA describes her as a baseliner whose favorite surface is clay.

Current ranking: #61
Peak ranking: #8 · 2022
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 170 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Sep 2026, 05:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Three weeks after Badosa beat Kasatkina 6-1 6-4 in New York, Beijing's first round pairs them again.

Badosa carries the stronger recent record and Kasatkina has lost the opening set in seven of eight hard-court matches, so Badosa is the likelier winner. No reviewed price offers value: Badosa to win at 1.38, the opening set at 1.44, straight sets at 1.45 and a 2-0 Badosa win at 1.95 all ask more than the form supports.

Context

The freshest reference point is only weeks old: Badosa won 6-1 6-4 in New York after needing nine match points to finish the job. Because the series has run across hard, clay and grass since 2022, surface alone does not separate them and no single result is a reliable template. The qualification is that the two arrive with different trajectories: Badosa is now at No. 59 and Kasatkina at No. 87, so the ranking picture no longer matches the one that framed the US Open meeting.
- Badosa won the US Open first-round meeting 6-1 6-4, needing nine match points to close it out.
- Kasatkina won their 2025 Roland Garros meeting 6-1 7-5; Badosa's most notable win in the sequence came at Wimbledon in 2024, 7-6(6) 4-6 6-4.
- Prior meetings also include Ningbo and Stuttgart in 2024-2023, Adelaide and San Jose in 2023-2022, and WTA 1000 Rome and Sydney in 2022.
- The China Open first round in Beijing is their first meeting since New York.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 05:10 · Europe/BucharestScoreGo match pagescorego-app.com · 29 Sep 2026
Badosa's No. 59 ranking sits far below her career-high No. 2, and the gap reflects a schedule built around clay events in July and a 40-day break before the US Open. Beijing is her first WTA 1000 appearance in roughly five months, so she is stepping back up to elite-event level with a recent record drawn mostly from lower-tier and clay-court tennis. The counterweight is that she has already beaten Kasatkina in straight sets this month, so the lighter schedule has not yet produced a poor result against this specific opponent.
- Badosa returned to competition at the US Open 40 days after her previous match, having last played on clay in late July.
- Her July results included clay-court finals at Iasi and the Bastad 125 and a quarter-final at Hamburg.
- Beijing is her first WTA 1000 event in about five months; before the US Open she had not played a hard-court tournament since Miami in March.
ReportedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 05:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Kasatkina's 2026 has been a run of short stays: opening-round defeats at Cincinnati and in Singapore, plus early exits in Toronto, Washington and at Wimbledon. That pattern matters here because the opponent is now familiar and the series is long, giving Kasatkina a route to a match she has handled before, including a 6-1 7-5 win at Roland Garros in 2025. The counterpoint is that the most recent meeting went the other way in straight sets in New York, and her latest match was a 7-5 6-0 loss to a player ranked outside the top 100.
- Kasatkina lost her opening match at the Singapore Open to Aliaksandra Sasnovich 7-5 6-0 .
- Earlier in the northern summer she lost her opener at Cincinnati and went out in the round of 64 in Toronto and the round of 32 in Washington and at Wimbledon.
- Her 2025 Roland Garros meeting with Badosa was a 6-1 7-5 win, and she holds a career-high ranking of No. 8 with eight WTA singles titles.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Sep 2026, 05:10 · Europe/Bucharest
Kasatkina has been starting slowly on hard courts, dropping the opening set almost every time while still often recovering to force a decider.
Badosa took the opening set 6-1 in their 2 September meeting, and this first-set record gives her the early edge in Beijing. The same sample shows Kasatkina frequently stretches matches deep, so an early lead has not always turned into a quick finish.
- Kasatkina's eight tracked hard-court matches (25 July to 21 September 2026) produced a 1-7 first-set record.
- She averaged 3.75 games won and 5.75 lost in first sets across that sample.
- Three of the eight matches ended 0-2, two ended 1-2 and three finished 2-1, a total-sets average of 2.6.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Paula Badosa Gibert

1.38fair 1.52

BetBugs 66% · Market 72.5%

−6.5ppshort

Badosa has the stronger recent record, hits through Kasatkina's defence, and won their meeting on this surface three weeks ago in straight sets.

Set 1 WinnerlostUncertainty band: Lean

Paula Badosa Gibert

1.44fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 69.4%

−6.4ppshort

Kasatkina has lost the opening set in seven of eight hard-court matches, while Badosa starts well enough to take the early lead.

Total SetslostUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.45fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 69%

−8.0ppshort

The most likely outcomes are Badosa winning in two sets or Kasatkina losing in two, which together make straight sets the more probable result.

Set BettinglostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Paula Badosa Gibert 2-0

1.95fair 2.17

BetBugs 46% · Market 51.3%

−5.3ppshort

Badosa is the likely winner and her hard-court wins have mostly come in two sets against opponents of this level.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Badosa has the stronger recent record, hits through Kasatkina's defence, and won their meeting on this surface three weeks ago in straight sets.
- Badosa is 11-3 in her last 14 completed matches and 4-2 on hard courts in that window.
- On hard courts she won set two in 4 of 6 matches and closed three of six in straight sets.
- She beat Kasatkina 6-1 6-4 in their US Open first-round meeting on 2 September 2026.
- Her most recent match was a 3-6 4-6 loss to world No. 204 Nadia Podoroska on 19 September.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPaula Badosa GibertEstimated chance66%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets on this surface have run slightly longer than the first for both players, with Kasatkina's matches regularly going deep.
- Kasatkina's second sets average 10.1 total games on hard.
- Badosa's second sets average 9.5 total games on hard.
- Kasatkina has two second-set tiebreaks in eight hard-court matches.
- Badosa has one tiebreak in six hard-court matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Badosa's straight-set wins come in short scorelines and her wins are the most likely outcome, which keeps the total low.
- Badosa's six hard-court matches averaged 20 total games, with four of six at 19 or fewer.
- Their 2 September hard-court meeting lasted only 17 games.
- Three of Kasatkina's last six completed matches finished under 20 games.
- Kasatkina's two most recent matches lasted 18 and 17 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 22.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Several of Kasatkina's opening sets have ended heavily one-sided, which pulls the total under this line.
- Badosa's first sets average 9.2 total games on hard.
- Kasatkina lost the first set 0-6 and 1-6 in two of her last four matches.
- Badosa's first-set wins include 6-1, 6-3 and 6-4 scorelines.
- Kasatkina's first sets average 3.8 games won.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Badosa has the better second-set record on this surface and won the second set in their recent meeting.
- Badosa is 4-2 in second sets on hard courts.
- Kasatkina is 4-4 in second sets on hard courts.
- Badosa won the second set 6-4 in their US Open meeting.
- Badosa's second sets average 5.7 games won against 3.8 lost.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonPaula Badosa GibertEstimated chance64%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Kasatkina has lost the opening set in seven of eight hard-court matches, while Badosa starts well enough to take the early lead.
- Badosa is 3-3 in first sets across her six hard-court matches.
- Kasatkina is 1-7 in first sets across her eight hard-court matches.
- Badosa took the opening set 6-1 in their 2 September meeting.
- Kasatkina lost the first set 0-6 and 1-6 in two of her last four matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostPaula Badosa GibertEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.45
The read
The most likely outcomes are Badosa winning in two sets or Kasatkina losing in two, which together make straight sets the more probable result.
- Four of Badosa's six hard-court matches finished in straight sets.
- Badosa has three 2-0 wins and two 0-2 losses in that sample.
- Kasatkina has been beaten in straight sets three times in her last eight hard matches.
- Their 2 September meeting ended 6-1 6-4.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance61%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The expected scorelines are break-dominated rather than serve-dominated, which points away from a tiebreak.
- Only one of Badosa's six hard-court matches featured a tiebreak.
- Badosa's hard-court wins finished 6-1 6-4, 6-4 6-2 and 6-3 6-2.
- Kasatkina's straight-set losses have included 0-6 and 1-6 sets.
- Their 2 September meeting had no tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance66%

Prediction history

Paula Badosa: 11/14 recent winner projections matched

11 of 14 comparable winner projections favouring Paula Badosa matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Paula Badosa14 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·WTA Hamburg

#93Paula Badosa2-0#71Panna Udvardy

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·68%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

WTA Hamburg

#93Paula Badosa2-0#71Panna Udvardy

Paula Badosa to win

68%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

22 Jul·WTA Hamburg

#142Katarzyna Kawa0-2#115Paula Badosa

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·78%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Hamburg

#142Katarzyna Kawa0-2#115Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa to win

78%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

20 Jul·WTA Iasi

#97Mayar Sherif2-0#115Paula Badosa

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·62%

Missed

20 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#97Mayar Sherif2-0#115Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa to win

62%probability

Mayar Sherif won

Missed

18 Jul·WTA Iasi

#115Paula Badosa2-1#148Tamara Zidansek

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·72%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#115Paula Badosa2-1#148Tamara Zidansek

Paula Badosa to win

72%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

17 Jul·WTA Iasi

#71Panna Udvardy0-2#115Paula Badosa

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·65%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#71Panna Udvardy0-2#115Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa to win

65%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

Head-to-Head

4-4 (8 meetings)

W6-1 6-4Paula Badosa Gibert#59vDaria Kasatkina#87Sep 2, 2026

L6-1 7-5Paula Badosa Gibert#59vDaria Kasatkina#87May 31, 2025

L6-4 ret.Paula Badosa Gibert#59vDaria Kasatkina#87Oct 19, 2024

W7-6(6) 4-6 6-4Paula Badosa Gibert#59vDaria Kasatkina#87Jul 5, 2024

W6-1 6-1Paula Badosa Gibert#59vDaria Kasatkina#87Apr 18, 2023

L6-2 6-4Paula Badosa Gibert#59vDaria Kasatkina#87Aug 6, 2022

L6-4 6-4Paula Badosa Gibert#59vDaria Kasatkina#87May 12, 2022

W6-2 6-2Paula Badosa Gibert#59vDaria Kasatkina#87Jan 14, 2022

8 total meetings

Previous match context available

Paula Badosa Gibert

11W 4L

6-3 6-4#204Nadia Podoroska 6-4 6-2#115Mary Stoiana

4-6 6-2 6-2#158Jazmin Ortenzi

6-3 6-2#246Justina Mikulskyte

6-4 7-6(5)#4Cori Gauff

6-1 6-4#87Daria Kasatkina

7-6(4) 6-7(2) 6-4#52Mayar Sherif

6-4 6-1#79Panna Udvardy

7-5 6-4#133Katarzyna Kawa

6-4 4-0 ret.#52Mayar Sherif

3-6 7-5 7-6(1)#142Tamara Zidansek

6-4 7-6(2)#79Panna Udvardy

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#168Alevtina Ibragimova

6-3 6-1#50Anhelina Kalinina

7-5 7-5#98Simona Waltert

Daria Kasatkina

5W 10L

7-5 6-0#121Aliaksandra Sasnovich

6-1 6-4#59Paula Badosa Gibert

2-6 7-6(4) 6-3#58Zeynep Sonmez

6-3 5-7 6-4#1Elena Rybakina

1-6 7-6(5) 7-5#38Xinyu Wang

6-4 6-1#22Anna Kalinskaya

4-6 6-4 6-0#488Alana Smith

6-7(3) 6-4 6-0#370Mariam Bolkvadze

6-1 6-3#17Naomi Osaka

6-7(5) 6-1 6-4#49Janice Tjen

6-2 3-6 6-2#340Mingge Xu

6-3 7-6(3)#77Mccartney Kessler

6-3 6-2#89Anna Blinkova

5-7 6-0 6-4#171Robin Montgomery

6-0 7-5#2Aryna Sabalenka

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

PGPaula Badosa GibertGibert

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Daria KasatkinaKasatkinaDK

Paula Badosa Gibert carries the stronger recent form — Daria Kasatkina's route runs through serve.

Serve · 4–1

1st Serve In56.3%+9.2pp65.5%

1st Serve Won65.9%+6.2pp59.7%

2nd Serve Won45.9%+6.0pp39.9%

Aces / Match2.7+0.62.1

Double Faults / Match6.51.3 fewer7.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won47.4%+4.1pp43.3%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted42.1%+4.4pp46.5%

Break Pts Saved53.4%+2.1pp51.3%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won52.1%+4.0pp48.1%

Serve · 4–1

56.3%1st Serve In+9.2pp65.5%

65.9%1st Serve Won+6.2pp59.7%

45.9%2nd Serve Won+6.0pp39.9%

2.7Aces / Match+0.62.1

6.5Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer7.8

Return · 1–0

47.4%Return Pts Won+4.1pp43.3%

Pressure · 1–1

42.1%Break Pts Converted+4.4pp46.5%

53.4%Break Pts Saved+2.1pp51.3%

Points · 1–0

52.1%Total Pts Won+4.0pp48.1%