BrazilWTA Sao PauloFinished

Predictions graded

Mary Stoiana #127United States0Paula Badosa Gibert #83Spain2

Sets 4-6 · 2-6Fri 18 Sept 2026, 20:30 Predictions gradedQuarter-FinalHard

Predictions7–278%

Edges1–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePaula Badosa · 44 places

Mary Stoiana

United States

Limited reliable public profile information was found. Use the structured ranking and form data as the main current context.

Current ranking: #127
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: —
Height: —

Paula Badosa

Spain

Reached a career-high ranking of No. 2 in April 2022. Badosa is a right-hander whose preferred surface is hard courts.

Current ranking: #83
Peak ranking: #2 · 2022
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Sep 2026, 03:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Badosa is the deserved favourite over Stoiana on recent form, quality of opposition, and serve/return numbers, but her 1.38 price offers negative value against a 68% model estimate.

Look instead to Over 21.5 games, Over 6.5 double faults, and a tiebreak in the match, with Badosa 2-0 the most likely scoreline.

Context

Badosa, 28, is a former top-10 player now ranked No. 70 and working back up the rankings. Stoiana, 22, is ranked No. 116 and has played most of her recent tennis on hard courts.
Badosa's 12-3 record across her last 15 matches is the stronger recent results line, and she also holds a 3-1 hard-court record in that window. Stoiana's 9-6 mark includes a straight-sets loss to top-20 opponent Alexandra Eala, so her wins have mostly come against lower-ranked players. The overall form edge sits with Badosa, though Stoiana's two wins this week in Sao Paulo show she is comfortable in the event.
- Badosa last 15 matches: 12-3, 73.5% of sets won, 56.6% of games won.
- Stoiana last 15 matches: 9-6, 59.5% of sets won, 53% of games won.
- Both players' last-15 samples are entirely or almost entirely hard court, so the surface is not a differentiator.
- Stoiana's recent losses include a 6-1 6-2 defeat to world No. 18 Alexandra Eala.
Badosa is a right-hander with a career first-serve percentage around 60% and a strong first-serve points won rate. Stoiana is a younger hard-court player still building her serve statistics at tour level.
Badosa's hard-court first-serve points won (69%) and break points saved (65.2%) are both better than Stoiana's equivalents (63.8% and 53.5%). Badosa's double-fault rate of 6.3 per match on hard court is a counterweight, giving Stoiana return chances if the second serve is under pressure. The serve stats lean toward Badosa holding more comfortably, but the double faults keep it from being one-sided.
- Badosa hard court last 15: 69% first-serve points won, 65.2% break points saved, 6.3 double faults per match.
- Stoiana hard court last 15: 63.8% first-serve points won, 53.5% break points saved, 3.9 double faults per match.
- Badosa's hard-court sample in the last 15 is only 4 matches, so the serve numbers carry a small-sample caveat.
- Stoiana's hard-court sample covers all 15 of her last-15 matches.
Both players are in the quarter-final after two wins this week. Stoiana's path included a 7-6 6-1 win over Dominika Salkova and a 6-3 7-5 win over Claire Liu. Badosa beat Justina Mikulskyte in straight sets and Jazmin Ortenzi in three sets.
Stoiana has spent slightly more time on court this week, with one three-set match and a tight two-setter. Badosa also went three sets in her second match, so the load is similar. Neither player has a clear fatigue advantage, but Stoiana's recent match volume is worth noting if the quarter-final goes long.
- Stoiana's two Sao Paulo wins: 7-6(5) 6-1 over Salkova and 6-3 7-5 over Liu.
- Badosa's two Sao Paulo wins: 6-3 6-2 over Mikulskyte and 4-6 6-2 6-2 over Ortenzi.
- Both players have played two matches in the main draw this week.
- Stoiana's average match duration in the last 15 is 119.3 minutes; Badosa's is 118.4 minutes.
Badosa, 27, is the WTA No. 70 right-hander and the more experienced player in this quarterfinal against Mary Stoiana.
Badosa needed 2 hours 16 minutes and three sets to beat Jazmin Ortenzi 4-6, 6-2, 6-2 on 17 September, so she arrives at this quarterfinal with extra court time from the day before. That is a workload note, not a fitness verdict; it mainly means her early games are worth watching for how well she holds up physically.
- The preceding match lasted 2 hours 16 minutes and required three sets.
- Stored recent sample: 3 wins from 5 tracked matches.
ConfirmedSources checked 18 Sep 2026, 03:15 · Europe/BucharestTorcida empurra e Badosa consegue virada para chegar às quartastenisbrasil.uol.com.br · 17 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Paula Badosa Gibert

1.38fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Badosa's stronger recent form and higher-tier opposition outweigh Stoiana's solid hard-court run, but the quoted price already overstates the edge.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Badosa's superior recent form and quality-of-opposition trend (Core 5 signal 3) plus a stronger first-serve/return structure (signal 2) outweigh Stoiana's solid but lower-tier hard-court run.
- Badosa last-15 record 12-3 (80%) with 73.5% sets won and 56.6% games won (matchesTracked 15).
- Stoiana last-15 record 9-6 (60%) with 53% games won; she lost to top-100 opponents Eala (No. 18) and Valentova (No. 59) in straight sets.
- Badosa beat Kasatkina (No. 85) 6-1 6-4 and pushed Gauff (No. 4) to 6-4 7-6 on this hard-court swing.
- Badosa career winOnFirstServePct 67 vs Stoiana 62; Badosa returnPointsWon 47% vs Stoiana 45.6% in last 15.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPaula Badosa GibertEstimated chance68%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches run long with frequent three-setters and tiebreaks (Core 5 signal 3), and Badosa's confirmed 2h16 prior-round workload (signal 4) supports extended games.
- Badosa last-15 average match duration 118.4 minutes across 15 matches; Stoiana 119.3 minutes.
- Badosa's last 5 matches include a 2h16 three-setter and a 4-6 6-2 6-2 comeback.
- Stoiana's last 5 include a 7-6(5) 6-1 and a 4-6 7-6(7) 6-3 three-setter.
- Both players average 6.1 (Badosa) and 3.9 (Stoiana) double faults per match, adding free points and length.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players frequently reach double-digit games (Core 5 signal 3), though the sample is mixed and confidence is limited.
- Stoiana's last 5 first sets: 7-6(5), 6-3, 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 — two went past 9.5 games.
- Badosa's last 5 first sets: 4-6, 6-3, 4-6, 6-1, 7-6(4) — two went past 9.5 games.
- Both players average over 3.9 double faults per match, extending early games.
- No H2H to calibrate expected first-set length.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Badosa's higher first-set conversion and stronger early-set serve numbers (Core 5 signals 2 and 3) give her the edge to take the opener.
- Badosa career firstSetWinConversion 88% vs Stoiana 85%.
- Badosa won opening sets in 3 of her last 4 hard-court matches (Ortenzi, Mikulskyte, Kasatkina).
- Stoiana dropped the opening set in 3 of her last 6 matches (Riera, Eala, Swan).
- Badosa last-15 firstServePointsWon 66.4% gives her early-set hold security.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPaula Badosa GibertEstimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Badosa's stronger second-set and second-serve numbers (Core 5 signals 2 and 3) point to her controlling the middle set if the match reaches it.
- Badosa won the second set in her last three hard-court wins (Ortenzi, Mikulskyte, Kasatkina).
- Badosa last-15 secondServePointsWon 49% vs Stoiana 46.1%.
- Stoiana lost the second set in 4 of her last 6 matches.
- Badosa returnPointsWon 47% in last 15 gives her sustained pressure across sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonPaula Badosa GibertEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent double-fault rates are high, with Badosa alone averaging above the line (Core 5 signal 2), making the over well supported.
- Badosa last-15 doubleFaultsPerMatch 6.1 (91 in 15 matches).
- Stoiana last-15 doubleFaultsPerMatch 3.9 (59 in 15 matches).
- Combined recent double-fault rate of roughly 10 per match.
- Badosa's 56.8% first-serve-in rate in last 15 increases second-serve exposure.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 6.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combined recent ace rate sits right at the line with Badosa as the primary contributor (Core 5 signal 2), giving a slight lean to the over.
- Badosa last-15 acesPerMatch 3.1 (46 aces in 15 matches).
- Stoiana last-15 acesPerMatch 1.5 (23 aces in 15 matches).
- Combined recent ace rate of roughly 4.6 per match across both players.
- Badosa's 180cm frame and 60% first-serve rate support a steady ace supply on hard court.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableOver 4.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Frequent recent tiebreak sets for both players (Core 5 signal 3) and comparable hold profiles make at least one tiebreak a reasonable lean.
- Stoiana's last 5 matches included two tiebreak sets (7-6(5) vs Salkova, 7-6(7) vs Riera).
- Badosa's last 5 included a 7-6(5) set vs Gauff and a 7-6(4) first set vs Sherif.
- Stoiana career tiebreakWinPct 62% and Badosa 60% show both are comfortable in breakers.
- Both players hold serve at similar rates, keeping sets close.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

Prediction history

Paula Badosa has been reliable when projected to win, fulfilling 11 of 14 recent match-winner projections

Paula Badosa fulfilled 11 of 14 match-winner projections in this sample. Her 11 fulfilled predictions exceeded the 9.5 expected from her average estimated probability of 67.9, and her matched projections averaged 70.1 versus 59.7 for missed ones. All three misses were losses, with no draws or unresolved results. The current 68% projection sits within her historical range of 57% to 78%.

Recent evidence for Paula Badosa14 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

23 Jul·WTA Hamburg

#93Paula Badosa2-0#71Panna Udvardy

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·68%

Matched

23 Jul 2026

WTA Hamburg

#93Paula Badosa2-0#71Panna Udvardy

Paula Badosa to win

68%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

22 Jul·WTA Hamburg

#142Katarzyna Kawa0-2#115Paula Badosa

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·78%

Matched

22 Jul 2026

WTA Hamburg

#142Katarzyna Kawa0-2#115Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa to win

78%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

20 Jul·WTA Iasi

#97Mayar Sherif2-0#115Paula Badosa

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·62%

Missed

20 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#97Mayar Sherif2-0#115Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa to win

62%probability

Mayar Sherif won

Missed

18 Jul·WTA Iasi

#115Paula Badosa2-1#148Tamara Zidansek

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·72%

Matched

18 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#115Paula Badosa2-1#148Tamara Zidansek

Paula Badosa to win

72%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

17 Jul·WTA Iasi

#71Panna Udvardy0-2#115Paula Badosa

BetBugsPaula Badosa to win·65%

Matched

17 Jul 2026

WTA Iasi

#71Panna Udvardy0-2#115Paula Badosa

Paula Badosa to win

65%probability

Paula Badosa won

Matched

Previous match context available

Mary Stoiana

9W 6L

7-6(5) 6-1#125Dominika Salkova

6-3 7-5#96Claire Liu

4-6 7-6(7) 6-3#144Julia Riera

6-3 6-2#160Jazmin Ortenzi

6-1 6-2#18Alexandra Eala

6-3 4-6 6-4#132Yue Yuan

6-7(5) 6-3 6-3#187Katie Swan

6-4 6-3#221Harmony Tan

6-2 7-6(4)#59Tereza Valentova

6-0 5-7 6-4#101Oksana Selekhmeteva

6-2 7-6(3)#147Veronika Erjavec

2-6 6-4 6-3#81Alina Korneeva

6-7(5) 6-0 6-4#60Peyton Stearns

6-4 2-6 6-2#180Yeon Woo Ku

6-3 6-4#255Julieta Pareja

Paula Badosa Gibert

12W 3L

4-6 6-2 6-2#160Jazmin Ortenzi

6-3 6-2#237Justina Mikulskyte

6-4 7-6(5)#4Cori Gauff

6-1 6-4#85Daria Kasatkina

7-6(4) 6-7(2) 6-4#48Mayar Sherif

6-4 6-1#83Panna Udvardy

7-5 6-4#128Katarzyna Kawa

6-4 4-0 ret.#48Mayar Sherif

3-6 7-5 7-6(1)#135Tamara Zidansek

6-4 7-6(2)#83Panna Udvardy

7-6(5) 1-6 6-4#166Alevtina Ibragimova

6-3 6-1#47Anhelina Kalinina

7-5 7-5#97Simona Waltert

6-1 6-2#78Yulia Putintseva

7-5 7-6(3)#179Varvara Lepchenko

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

MSMary StoianaStoiana

Last 15

3–6

9 core stats · 0 even

Paula Badosa GibertGibertPG

Paula Badosa Gibert carries the stronger recent form — Mary Stoiana's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In61.1%+4.3pp56.8%

1st Serve Won63.8%+2.6pp66.4%

2nd Serve Won46.1%+2.9pp49.0%

Aces / Match1.5+1.63.1

Double Faults / Match3.92.2 fewer6.1

Return · 0–1

Return Pts Won45.6%+1.4pp47.0%

Pressure · 1–1

Break Pts Converted48.6%+9.9pp38.7%

Break Pts Saved53.5%+3.0pp56.5%

Points · 0–1

Total Pts Won51.3%+1.3pp52.6%

Serve · 2–3

61.1%1st Serve In+4.3pp56.8%

63.8%1st Serve Won+2.6pp66.4%

46.1%2nd Serve Won+2.9pp49.0%

1.5Aces / Match+1.63.1

3.9Double Faults / Match2.2 fewer6.1

Return · 0–1

45.6%Return Pts Won+1.4pp47.0%

Pressure · 1–1

48.6%Break Pts Converted+9.9pp38.7%

53.5%Break Pts Saved+3.0pp56.5%

Points · 0–1

51.3%Total Pts Won+1.3pp52.6%