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Predictions graded

Edas Butvilas #268Lithuania2Moez Echargui #194Tunisia0

Sets 6-1 · 7-5Thu 1 Oct 2026, 12:10 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions5–456%

Edges0–20%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMoez Echargui · 74 places

Edas Butvilas

Lithuania

The 22-year-old Lithuanian is right-handed and 191 cm tall. He reached a career-high ranking of No. 201 on 17 March 2025.

Current ranking: #268
Peak ranking: #201 · 2025
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Moez Echargui

Tunisia

Age 33 with a career-high ranking of No. 134 on 29 December 2025. ITF lists sand/clay as his preferred surface, while ATP describes him as a counterpuncher.

Current ranking: #194
Peak ranking: #134 · 2025
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 175 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Oct 2026, 03:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Butvilas is the higher-ranked player, but he faces a No. 371 opponent who just dismantled the fifth seed, and the opening set looks close to level.

Butvilas should have the edge over three sets, yet the useful prices sit on Echargui: 2.9 to win the match and 2.5 to take the first set both offer something. Butvilas at 1.36 in the match and 1.45 for the opening set ask too much.

Context

Beating the fifth seed 7-5 6-0 is the clearest available evidence of Echargui's level this week, and it is the result that put him into this second round rather than out of the draw. The opponent was ranked No. 102 against his own No. 371, so the win carries information about current hard-court form that his ranking does not. The specific limitation is the ranking gap itself: one result of this size does not show he can reproduce that level in a second match on consecutive days, and he remains 168 places below Butvilas.
- Echargui beat fifth seed Damir Dzumhur 7-5, 6-0 in the Porto first round to move into the second round.
- The scoreline was straight sets with a 6-0 second set.
- Dzumhur was ranked No. 102 and was the fifth seed; Echargui was ranked No. 371.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 03:13 · Europe/Bucharest
This was the standout win of Butvilas's hard-court block and it came against a former world No. 3, which makes it the strongest single pointer to his level heading into Porto. It also shows he can produce that level in a first-round match against a seeded name, not only against lower-ranked opposition. The limitation is that Dimitrov was ranked No. 126 by then and has since withdrawn from this event with a left knee problem, so this reads as a quality scalp rather than evidence against top-level opposition, and Butvilas lost his next match to a player outside the top 200.
- Butvilas beat Grigor Dimitrov 7-6(3), 6-3 in the first round at Saint-Tropez .
- Dimitrov was the sixth seed and ranked No. 126; Butvilas was ranked No. 198 at the time.
- Butvilas lost to Harold Mayot in the last 16 on 24 September 2026.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 03:13 · Europe/Bucharest
The former world No. 3 took a wildcard into this event and then pulled out on the morning of his first-round match, leaving the 125-level week without the tour-level name it had been built around. It explains the shape of the field the surviving players are competing in, including the fact that a top-100 seed such as Dzumhur was the highest-profile removal from the top half. The injury and its timeframe remain unresolved, so it should be read as a field change rather than a settled condition.
- Dimitrov withdrew from the Eupago Porto Open, hours before his first-round match, citing a left knee injury.
- He held a main-draw wildcard and had been practising in Porto for three days before the withdrawal.
- No timeframe for his return was given and the tournament did not confirm the severity of the problem.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Oct 2026, 03:13 · Europe/Bucharest
Butvilas's recent hard-court record is front-loaded rather than consistently dominant.
Butvilas's edge in this match starts at the toss: he has been the stronger starter over the tracked window, winning 10 of 14 opening sets. If the match reaches a second set that advantage largely disappears, since he is 6-8 in second sets across the same 14 matches. First sets have also been the longer ones, averaging 10.64 games, so a quick opening set is not the expectation.
- Over 14 hard-court matches from 7 August to 30 September 2026, Butvilas won 10 of 14 first sets and 6 of 14 second sets (one retirement excluded).
- First sets averaged 10.64 games (5.86 won, 4.79 lost); second sets averaged 9.64 games (5.00 won, 4.64 lost).
- Four of those 14 matches featured a first-set tiebreak.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas is the higher-ranked player with the better recent hard-court record, and he won his opening match here comfortably.
- Butvilas 9-5 in last 14 hard-court matches; Echargui 7-7
- Butvilas ranked 203, Echargui 371
- Both won R1 in straight sets in Porto (Geerts 6-4 6-1; Dzumhur 7-5 6-0)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonEdas ButvilasEstimated chance56%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
First sets in both players' recent matches have regularly reached ten games or more, with several tiebreaks.
- Butvilas set 1 total games average 10.64
- Echargui set 1 total games average 10.64
- Butvilas 4 set-1 tiebreaks; Echargui 3
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance66%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches have averaged around 25 games, with first sets consistently running long.
- Butvilas total games average 25.07
- Echargui total games average 25.36
- Both average over 10 games in the opening set
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 25.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second sets have generally been shorter than first sets for both players, with averages below ten games.
- Butvilas set 2 total games average 9.64
- Echargui set 2 total games average 9.57
- Both have 2 set-2 tiebreaks in 14 matches
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance51%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Straight-set outcomes have been slightly more common than deciders across both players' recent hard-court matches.
- Butvilas won 5 matches 2-0 in last 14
- Echargui won 4 matches 2-0 and lost 3 at 0-2
- Butvilas total sets average 2.43
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance56%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Butvilas has started matches strongly, winning his opening set in ten of fourteen recent hard-court matches, and carries the higher ranking.
- Butvilas set 1 record 10-4 in last 14 hard matches
- Echargui set 1 record 9-5 in the same window
- Butvilas set 1 games 5.86 won / 4.79 lost
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonEdas ButvilasEstimated chance54%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been weaker in second sets, and Butvilas's overall edge gives him a slight lean if the set is reached.
- Butvilas set 2 record 6-8 in last 14 hard matches
- Echargui set 2 record 6-8
- Both average under 10 games in set 2
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonEdas ButvilasEstimated chance53%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have been involved in tiebreaks in a majority or near-majority of their recent hard-court matches.
- Butvilas 8 of 14 matches featured a tiebreak
- Echargui 6 of 14 matches featured a tiebreak
- Both players have multiple set-1 tiebreaks
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance57%

Previous match context available

Edas Butvilas

10W 5L

6-4 6-1#344Michael Geerts 6-4 6-3#191Harold Mayot 7-6(3) 6-3#126Grigor Dimitrov

7-5 1-6 7-5#57Miomir Kecmanovic

6-3 6-4#244Max Basing

7-6(1) 6-1#499Miguel Tobon

7-5 6-2#563Gabriel Ghetu

4-6 7-5 7-6(6)#536Luca Potenza

6-3 6-7(5) 6-3#226Remy Bertola

2-6 6-0 3-0 ret.#117Sebastian Ofner

7-6(6) 7-5#316Daniel Milavsky

6-3 7-5#149Michael Mmoh

6-2 1-6 7-6(6)#195Andre Ilagan

6-2 6-7(5) 6-2#146Dusan Lajovic

7-6(5) 3-6 7-5#137Rei Sakamoto

Moez Echargui

8W 7L

7-5 6-0#102Damir Dzumhur

6-1 4-6 6-4#373Daniel Masur

6-4 7-6(8)#453Karl Poling 6-7(3) 6-4 6-3#536Luca Potenza

6-7(2) 7-5 6-1#154Nicolai Budkov Kjaer

7-5 1-6 7-6(2)#237Billy Harris

6-4 6-2#334Lucas Poullain

2-6 6-4 6-4#197Jack Pinnington Jones

6-4 6-4#128Hugo Dellien

6-3 6-4#41Hubert Hurkacz

6-4 2-6 7-6(5)#194Moise Kouame

6-2 5-0 ret.#76Camilo Ugo Carabelli

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#106Otto Virtanen

5-7 6-2 6-4#92Michael Zheng

6-4 6-3#437Spencer Johnson

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

EBEdas ButvilasButvilas

Last 15

8–0

9 core stats · 1 even

Moez EcharguiEcharguiME

Edas Butvilas carries the stronger recent form — Moez Echargui's route runs through return pts won.

Serve · 5–0

1st Serve In14/15 · 15/1563.9%+8.3pp55.6%

1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/1572.9%+4.6pp68.3%

2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/1551.9%+2.2pp49.7%

Aces / Match14/15 · 15/156.0+1.14.9

Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/152.10.6 fewer2.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/1539.9%—40.0%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/1547.4%+7.2pp40.2%

Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/1555.6%+1.6pp54.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/1552.7%+2.8pp49.9%

Serve · 5–0

63.9%1st Serve In14/15 · 15/15+8.3pp55.6%

72.9%1st Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+4.6pp68.3%

51.9%2nd Serve Won14/15 · 15/15+2.2pp49.7%

6.0Aces / Match14/15 · 15/15+1.14.9

2.1Double Faults / Match14/15 · 15/150.6 fewer2.7

Return · 0–0 · 1 even

39.9%Return Pts Won14/15 · 15/15—40.0%

Pressure · 2–0

47.4%Break Pts Converted14/15 · 15/15+7.2pp40.2%

55.6%Break Pts Saved14/15 · 15/15+1.6pp54.0%

Points · 1–0

52.7%Total Pts Won14/15 · 15/15+2.8pp49.9%