BrazilCuritiba - BrazilFinishedFeatured

Predictions graded

Guido Ivan Justo #233Argentina2Franco Roncadelli #2370

Sets 7-6 · 6-2Wed 30 Sept 2026, 13:40 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions6–367%

Edges4–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageGuido Ivan Justo · 4 places

Guido Ivan Justo

Argentina

Justo is an Argentine right-hander born on 17 December 1997. Public career records show the bulk of his professional match volume on clay; his supplied current ranking is No. 233.

Current ranking: #233
Peak ranking: #223 · 2026
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 178 cm

Franco Roncadelli

Uruguayan left-hander born 6 February 2000. Public ranking records place his career-best singles ranking at No. 225 in May 2026; no verified current injury or withdrawal report surfaced in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #237
Peak ranking: #225 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 28 Sep 2026, 00:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Justo and Roncadelli open the Curitiba Challenger on clay, with Justo the stronger of the two on the surface across 14 tracked clay matches.

He should win, most likely in straight sets, and the 2.4 on a 2-0 Justo win is the one price here worth taking. The 1.6 on Justo to win the match, the first set or the second set offers nothing, and neither does the 2.2 on Roncadelli.

Context

Roncadelli is the left-hander in this first-round clay match and gets a high share of first serves into play, which keeps him out of second-serve trouble for long stretches.
A high first-serve percentage only pays if the point follows. At 59.6% won, Roncadelli's serve is a platform rather than a weapon, and Justo's 66.0% first-serve points won over the same 15-match window is the stronger conversion. On clay, where rallies run longer and free points are scarce, that gap in turning serves into points carries more weight than the raw percentage.
- Roncadelli put in 748 of 989 first serves (75.6%) across 15 tracked matches and won 446 of those 748 points (59.6%).
- Justo put in 621 of 951 first serves (65.3%) across 15 tracked matches and won 410 of those 621 points (66.0%).
Justo's clay sample runs from 30 June to 23 September 2026 and leans towards short, settled matches rather than long three-set battles.
Six of Justo's eight clay wins came without dropping a set, and only three of his 14 clay matches reached a deciding set, which is why a straight-sets outcome is the likelier shape of this first-round match. The other side of the same profile is that his six clay defeats came 0-2 five times, so when he is beaten on the surface it usually ends quickly rather than in a tight third. Roncadelli's clay record shows the mirror image, with 0-2 losses in six of his 13 matches.
- Justo's 14 tracked clay matches (30 June – 23 September 2026) produced scorelines of 2-0 six times, 0-2 five times, 2-1 twice and 1-2 once.
- Those matches average 20.71 total games and 2.21 sets, with no retirements in the sample.
Curitiba's Challenger 75 was voted the ATP Challenger 75 Tournament of the Year for 2025, and the 2026 edition keeps that billing with a $107,000 prize pool and 75 points for the champion. It is an outdoor clay event at the Graciosa Country Club, the surface on which both Justo and Roncadelli have played nearly all of their recent matches, so neither faces a conditions adjustment. The field is deeper than usual for the level, with eight of Brazil's top ten entered plus a home wildcard debut, so even an unseeded first-round match sits inside a strong draw. The award describes the 2025 event's standing rather than the form of either player this week.
- Curitiba's Challenger 75 was voted the ATP Challenger 75 Tournament of the Year in 2025.
- The 2026 edition runs 28 September to 4 October at Graciosa Country Club with a $107,000 prize pool and 75 points for the champion.
- Both Justo and Roncadelli are in the main draw of a field containing eight of Brazil's top ten.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 00:08 · Europe/Bucharest
Roncadelli arrives at Curitiba without a win in his most recent outing: he took the opening set 6-0 from Pedro Boscardin Dias in the Buenos Aires round of 16 and then lost the next two sets. That sits inside a wider stretch in which he has won only six of his last fifteen matches, and his most recent loss came against a lower-ranked opponent. The positive note is that he can still win clay sets by wide margins, having also beaten Bruno Fernandez 6-2 6-0 in the round before. He is the left-hander in this matchup, and the two-week South American clay swing means no surface adjustment for either player.
- Roncadelli won the first set 6-0 against Pedro Boscardin Dias in the Buenos Aires Challenger round of 16 before losing the next two sets 6-7(5) 3-6.
- Roncadelli entered that match ranked No. 264 and Boscardin Dias No. 284.
- Roncadelli had won his previous match 6-2 6-0 over Bruno Fernandez.
ConfirmedSources checked 28 Sep 2026, 00:08 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Guido Ivan Justo

1.60fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 62.5%

−0.5ppshort

Justo has the better clay results and stronger serve points, and he has won more first and second sets than Roncadelli in the tracked clay sample.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

Guido Ivan Justo

1.60fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 62.5%

−2.5ppshort

Justo has won more first sets and has the better set1 game differential on clay.

Set 2 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Guido Ivan Justo

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

−7.5ppshort

Justo has a level set2 record while Roncadelli has lost more second sets than he has won on clay.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Justo has the better clay results and stronger serve points, and he has won more first and second sets than Roncadelli in the tracked clay sample.
- Ranked 233 vs 264; clay record 8-6 vs 6-7 in tracked matches.
- Clay sets won 54.8% vs 43.3%; games won 53.8% vs 49.8%.
- First-serve points won on clay 66.6% vs 59.8%.
- Set1 record 8-6 vs 5-8; set2 record 7-7 vs 5-8.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonGuido Ivan JustoEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Roncadelli's first sets average only 8.85 games, pulling the combined expectation below the line.
- Set1 total games average: Justo 9.57, Roncadelli 8.85.
- Set1 tiebreaks: Justo 1 in 14 clay matches, Roncadelli 0 in 13.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined set2 average is just above 9.5, and both players have recent second-set tiebreaks.
- Set2 total games average: Justo 9.36, Roncadelli 9.77.
- Set2 tiebreaks: Justo 2 in 14 clay matches, Roncadelli 2 in 13.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Justo's clay matches average below this line and he is the more likely winner, which often reduces the number of games needed.
- Clay total games average: Justo 20.71, Roncadelli 21.62.
- Set1 total games average 9.57 vs 8.85; set2 9.36 vs 9.77.
- Three-set matches in clay sample: 3 of 14 for Justo, 4 of 13 for Roncadelli.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance51%

Sets4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have completed most clay matches in two sets, with Justo's average sets per match at 2.21.
- Clay three-set matches: Justo 3 of 14, Roncadelli 4 of 13.
- Average sets per clay match: Justo 2.21, Roncadelli 2.31.
- Scorelines: Justo 2-0 six, 2-1 two, 0-2 five, 1-2 one; Roncadelli 2-0 three, 2-1 three, 0-2 six, 1-2 one.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance73%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Justo has won more first sets and has the better set1 game differential on clay.
- Clay set1 record: Justo 8-6, Roncadelli 5-8.
- Set1 games won average: Justo 5.14, Roncadelli 4.15.
- Set1 games lost average: Justo 4.43, Roncadelli 4.69.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonGuido Ivan JustoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Justo has a level set2 record while Roncadelli has lost more second sets than he has won on clay.
- Clay set2 record: Justo 7-7, Roncadelli 5-8.
- Set2 games won average: Justo 4.86, Roncadelli 4.92.
- Set2 games lost average: Justo 4.50, Roncadelli 4.85.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerwonGuido Ivan JustoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Market price 2.40
The read
Justo is the likely winner and most of his clay wins have been in straight sets.
- Justo's clay wins: 6 of 8 were 2-0.
- Match winner chance for Justo is 62%; three-set chance is 27%.
- Roncadelli's clay losses: 6 of 7 were 0-2.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonGuido Ivan Justo 2-0Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Most of their completed clay matches did not include a tiebreak.
- Clay matches with a tiebreak: Justo 3 of 14, Roncadelli 3 of 13.
- Set1 tiebreaks: Justo 1, Roncadelli 0; set2 tiebreaks: Justo 2, Roncadelli 2.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Roncadelli almost never lands an ace, which keeps the total below 2.5 more often than not.
- Clay aces per match: Justo 2.1, Roncadelli 0.2.
- Justo served 29 aces in 14 clay matches; Roncadelli 3 in 13.
BetBugs · Total Acesnot gradableUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double-fault average is 1.7, just above the 1.5 line.
- Clay double faults per match: Justo 1.1, Roncadelli 0.6.
- Justo served 15 double faults in 14 clay matches; Roncadelli 8 in 13.
BetBugs · Total Double Faultsnot gradableOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Previous match context available

Guido Ivan Justo

8W 7L

6-4 7-6(0)#220Facundo Mena 6-4 3-6 6-1#328Gonzalo Villanueva

7-5 6-3#97Hugo Gaston

6-3 6-3#277Juan Bautista Torres

6-4 6-4#217Sascha Gueymard Wayenburg

6-4 6-2#186Diego Dedura

6-3 6-1#274Genaro Alberto Olivieri

6-3 7-6(3)#326Federico Bondioli

6-3 6-4#309Max Hans Rehberg

6-4 5-7 6-4#183Lukas Neumayer

6-4 6-0#307Georgii Kravchenko

7-6(4) 6-2#194Keegan Smith

6-1 6-4#402Olle Wallin

6-4 3-6 6-2#363Ognjen Milic

6-2 6-1#605Sebastian Gima

Franco Roncadelli

6W 9L

0-6 7-6(5) 6-3#284Pedro Boscardin Dias

6-2 6-0#613Bruno Fernandez

6-4 6-3#190Elias Ymer

7-5 7-5#348Norbert Gombos

6-3 6-2#770Jakub Nicod

6-3 6-3#239Henri Squire

7-5 7-6(5)#782Oskari Paldanius

6-1 6-3#163Max Alcala Gurri

6-2 4-6 7-6(7)#213Maxim Mrva

2-6 6-2 6-1#207Lorenzo Giustino

6-3 6-3#263Michele Ribecai

6-3 6-4#238Andrej Nedic

4-6 6-2 6-4#293Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-4 6-2#110Dane Sweeny

6-2 7-5#72Facundo Diaz Acosta

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

GJGuido Ivan JustoJusto

Last 15

4–3

9 core stats · 2 even

Franco RoncadelliRoncadelliFR

Guido Ivan Justo carries the stronger recent form — Franco Roncadelli's route runs through serve.

Serve · 2–3

1st Serve In65.3%+10.3pp75.6%

1st Serve Won66.0%+6.4pp59.6%

2nd Serve Won53.0%+3.0pp56.0%

Aces / Match2.1+1.70.4

Double Faults / Match1.10.6 fewer0.5

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won41.8%+1.4pp40.4%

Pressure · 0–0 · 2 even

Break Pts Converted49.0%—48.9%

Break Pts Saved54.7%—55.0%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won51.6%+2.0pp49.6%

Serve · 2–3

65.3%1st Serve In+10.3pp75.6%

66.0%1st Serve Won+6.4pp59.6%

53.0%2nd Serve Won+3.0pp56.0%

2.1Aces / Match+1.70.4

1.1Double Faults / Match0.6 fewer0.5

Return · 1–0

41.8%Return Pts Won+1.4pp40.4%

Pressure · 0–0 · 2 even

49.0%Break Pts Converted—48.9%

54.7%Break Pts Saved—55.0%

Points · 1–0

51.6%Total Pts Won+2.0pp49.6%

Guido Ivan Justo

Franco Roncadelli

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Guido Ivan Justo 2-0

Guido Ivan Justo

Guido Ivan Justo

Guido Ivan Justo

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Guido Ivan Justo

Franco Roncadelli

Stat Battle