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Predictions graded

Franco Roncadelli #2371Pedro Boscardin Dias #284Brazil2

Sets 6-0 · 6-7 · 3-6Thu 24 Sept 2026, 15:16 Predictions gradedIndoor

Predictions0–10%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageFranco Roncadelli · 47 places

Franco Roncadelli

Uruguayan left-hander born 6 February 2000. Public ranking records place his career-best singles ranking at No. 225 in May 2026; no verified current injury or withdrawal report surfaced in the requested searches.

Current ranking: #237
Peak ranking: #225 · 2026
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Left handed
Height: 185 cm

Pedro Boscardin Dias

Brazil

Brazilian right-hander, 23, ranked No. 284. His first-round win in Buenos Aires ended a nine-match losing run stretching back to the start of June 2026, after a break of about seven weeks without a match.

Current ranking: #284
Peak ranking: —
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Sep 2026, 16:34 · Europe/Bucharest

A second-round Challenger match at the Racket Club between two players who both won their openers, but only one arrives with any form: Roncadelli has the ranking edge and two straight-sets wins, while Boscardin Dias's first-round win ended a nine-match losing run.

Roncadelli should come through, and at 1.8 that is the one quoted price here that offers anything; the 1.9 on Boscardin Dias does not.

Context

Boscardin Dias had not won a singles match since the start of June, losing nine in a row across clay and grass before arriving in Buenos Aires. A 6-3 6-1 win over a qualifier ranked outside the top 400 is the first evidence in more than three months that his level has recovered. The limitation is that a single win, against a much lower-ranked opponent, does not yet show the losing run has been reversed against top-300 opposition.
- Boscardin Dias beat qualifier Santiago Rodríguez Taverna 6-3 6-1 in the Buenos Aires first round .
- The result ended nine consecutive defeats; his previous singles win came on 1 June 2026.
- He played no singles match between 4 August and .
- The win put him into a second-round meeting with Franco Roncadelli.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 16:33 · Europe/Bucharest
Roncadelli won the second singles rubber of Uruguay's Davis Cup tie against Estonia at the Círculo de Tenis in Montevideo, and Uruguay closed the tie out 3-0 the following day. He came to Buenos Aires straight from that weekend, so he enters the second round with recent competitive match play rather than a training block. The result came in a team event and carried no ranking points, so it is better read as evidence of competitive sharpness than as a like-for-like form guide for this fixture.
- Roncadelli beat Kristjan Tamm 6-4 6-2 in the second singles rubber at the Círculo de Tenis in Montevideo .
- It was his seventh Davis Cup singles victory.
- Uruguay closed out the tie 3-0 against Estonia the following day.
- The tie preceded his arrival at the Buenos Aires Challenger.
ConfirmedSources checked 23 Sep 2026, 16:33 · Europe/Bucharest
The window covers 14 tracked matches, with one retirement excluded from the sample and no serve or return splits available for it.
Fourteen tracked matches with two wins is a long stretch without results, and one good day in Buenos Aires does not erase it. It does mean he arrives with something to build on rather than a nine-match losing run behind him.
- Boscardin Dias's last 15-match window covers 14 tracked matches and a 2-12 record.
- One retirement is excluded from that sample.
Virtanen was ranked No. 103 for that match, more than 180 places above Boscardin Dias at No. 284.
It is a single match, but it shows Boscardin Dias can take a set off a top-105 opponent on clay, which is the counterweight to his 2-12 recent record and part of why this second round is not a straightforward mismatch.
- On 21 July 2026, Boscardin Dias lost 6-4 6-7 3-6 to Otto Virtanen on clay.
- Virtanen was ranked No. 103 for that match; Boscardin Dias is ranked No. 284.
- Boscardin Dias won 15 games to Virtanen's 17 in the match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Roncadelli comes in with better recent results and a slightly higher ranking, while Boscardin Dias has been losing heavily for months.
- Roncadelli is ranked 264; Boscardin Dias is ranked 284.
- Roncadelli won his Buenos Aires opener 6-2 6-0 and a Davis Cup singles match 6-4 6-2 in the week before this match.
- Boscardin Dias had lost nine straight matches before his first-round win and had not competed for about seven weeks.
- Roncadelli's last 15 matches produced a 6-9 record with 48.6% of total points won.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFranco RoncadelliEstimated chance62%

Prediction history

Franco Roncadelli: 3/4 recent winner projections matched

3 of 4 comparable winner projections favouring Franco Roncadelli matched the recorded result. This is a limited recent sample, not a guarantee for this match.

Recent evidence for Franco Roncadelli4 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

21 Jul·Tampere - Finland

—Oskari Paldanius0-2#238Franco Roncadelli

BetBugsFranco Roncadelli to win·72%

Matched

21 Jul 2026

Tampere - Finland

—Oskari Paldanius0-2#238Franco Roncadelli

Franco Roncadelli to win

72%probability

Franco Roncadelli won

Matched

16 Jul·Cordenons - Italy

#310Maxim Mrva1-2#238Franco Roncadelli

BetBugsFranco Roncadelli to win·58%

Matched

16 Jul 2026

Cordenons - Italy

#310Maxim Mrva1-2#238Franco Roncadelli

Franco Roncadelli to win

58%probability

Franco Roncadelli won

Matched

6 Jul·Trieste - Italy

#245Franco Roncadelli0-2#265Michele Ribecai

BetBugsFranco Roncadelli to win·62%

Missed

6 Jul 2026

Trieste - Italy

#245Franco Roncadelli0-2#265Michele Ribecai

Franco Roncadelli to win

62%probability

Michele Ribecai won

Missed

5 May·Santos - Brazil

#620Santiago De La Fuente0-2#274Franco Roncadelli

BetBugsFranco Roncadelli to win·62%

Matched

5 May 2026

Santos - Brazil

#620Santiago De La Fuente0-2#274Franco Roncadelli

Franco Roncadelli to win

62%probability

Franco Roncadelli won

Matched

Franco Roncadelli

6W 9L

6-4 6-3#190Elias Ymer

7-5 7-5#348Norbert Gombos

6-3 6-2#770Jakub Nicod

6-3 6-3#239Henri Squire

7-5 7-6(5)#782Oskari Paldanius

6-1 6-3#163Max Alcala Gurri

6-2 4-6 7-6(7)#213Maxim Mrva

2-6 6-2 6-1#207Lorenzo Giustino

6-3 6-3#263Michele Ribecai

6-3 6-4#238Andrej Nedic

4-6 6-2 6-4#293Alvaro Guillen Meza

6-4 6-2#110Dane Sweeny

6-2 7-5#72Facundo Diaz Acosta

7-5 6-2#715Peter Fajta

6-7(5) 6-2 6-3#235Maks Kasnikowski

Pedro Boscardin Dias

3W 12L

6-3 6-1#462Santiago Rodriguez Taverna

6-3 0-6 6-4#395Samuele Pieri

6-3 6-4#139Jurij Rodionov

4-6 7-6(3) 6-3#103Otto Virtanen

6-2 7-5#227Kimmer Coppejans

6-2 6-1#281Daniel Michalski

6-1 7-6(3)#107Kyrian Jacquet

7-5 6-0#89Jan Choinski

7-5 3-6 6-1#124Emilio Nava

6-4 6-4#213Maxim Mrva

1-6 7-6(5) 3-0 ret.#400Yosuke Watanuki

6-1 6-4#212Chun Hsin Tseng

4-6 6-3 6-4#179Alexis Galarneau

7-6(4) 6-4#145Nikoloz Basilashvili

6-7(12) 6-4 7-6(4)#209Liam Draxl

Stat Battle

Last 15 match performance, compared side by side.

FRFranco RoncadelliRoncadelli

Last 15

7–2

9 core stats · 0 even

Pedro Boscardin DiasDiasPD

Franco Roncadelli carries the stronger recent form — Pedro Boscardin Dias's route runs through serve.

Serve · 3–2

1st Serve In75.7%+14.2pp61.5%

1st Serve Won58.2%+5.6pp63.8%

2nd Serve Won54.0%+6.7pp47.3%

Aces / Match0.4+1.72.1

Double Faults / Match0.51.3 fewer1.8

Return · 1–0

Return Pts Won39.7%+1.4pp38.3%

Pressure · 2–0

Break Pts Converted48.9%+10.7pp38.2%

Break Pts Saved56.2%+1.7pp54.5%

Points · 1–0

Total Pts Won48.6%+0.9pp47.7%

Serve · 3–2

75.7%1st Serve In+14.2pp61.5%

58.2%1st Serve Won+5.6pp63.8%

54.0%2nd Serve Won+6.7pp47.3%

0.4Aces / Match+1.72.1

0.5Double Faults / Match1.3 fewer1.8

Return · 1–0

39.7%Return Pts Won+1.4pp38.3%

Pressure · 2–0

48.9%Break Pts Converted+10.7pp38.2%

56.2%Break Pts Saved+1.7pp54.5%

Points · 1–0

48.6%Total Pts Won+0.9pp47.7%